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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Really tricky Cup - reckon you could make some sort of case for 21 of these. None disadvantaged by the going, and most look like they'll get the trip.
In the past I've used the far-from-unique method of simply putting a line through the internationals due to their inscrutable form. Suitably chastened by the events of last year, I hesitated...before putting a line through them once again. Too much to take on trust, and at the end of it all you're still guessing. If I've crossed out the winner, so be it.
Have settled on At First Sight. Technically he's an international, but he's had the winter plus four solid runs to acclimatise. Yes he only has a 2yo maiden win to his name, and he was probably entitled to win one of his last couple. But some elements of the horse's form remind me of Kingston Rule, who was given a soft time of it when runner-up in The Dalgety (Lexus) before winning the Cup at his 11th start. Back home, At First Sight was an on-pacer who pinched a place in the English Derby at 100/1, but connections have taken an easier route to the Cup with him and taught him how to settle and run on. As with all Cup selections, this one is part logic, part gut feel; just reckon he's the right horse, at the right age, with the right weight, and his breeding is sound. Is he classy enough? Fingers crossed...
Really tricky Cup - reckon you could make some sort of case for 21 of these. None disadvantaged by the going, and most look like they'll get the trip.
In the past I've used the far-from-unique method of simply putting a line through the internationals due to their inscrutable form. Suitably chastened by the events of last year, I hesitated...before putting a line through them once again. Too much to take on trust, and at the end of it all you're still guessing. If I've crossed out the winner, so be it.
Have settled on At First Sight. Technically he's an international, but he's had the winter plus four solid runs to acclimatise. Yes he only has a 2yo maiden win to his name, and he was probably entitled to win one of his last couple. But some elements of the horse's form remind me of Kingston Rule, who was given a soft time of it when runner-up in The Dalgety (Lexus) before winning the Cup at his 11th start. Back home, At First Sight was an on-pacer who pinched a place in the English Derby at 100/1, but connections have taken an easier route to the Cup with him and taught him how to settle and run on. As with all Cup selections, this one is part logic, part gut feel; just reckon he's the right horse, at the right age, with the right weight, and his breeding is sound. Is he classy enough? Fingers crossed...
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
The overseas runners are tending to have a run in a lead up race in australia these days L2. Not like the older times when Vintage crop was the exception. Basically the first 7 home were internationals.
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
The overseas runners are tending to have a run in a lead up race in australia these days L2. Not like the older times when Vintage crop was the exception. Basically the first 7 home were internationals.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Yeah, and I'd put a line through all seven due to stubbornness and still having a few points in the bank after Efficient & Viewed. I don't like change, or the idea that the humble Geelong Cup has become an important lead-up. But I did take the time to look through their form, and couldn't have had 2nd, 6th or 7th in a pink fit. The realisation that some of the invaders are getting it right only adds to the difficulty.
NB The Poms are still Cup maidens.
And well done to yourself, Leysy & Pommell on finding the winner. :clap
Edit: Had Manighar (5th) in my top three; four runs here was enough to get a handle on him. Rated Americain (4th) fifth without ever considering him at the odds. The others were just too hard to assess. But it's all incidental as I gave up shooting at Cup trifectas years ago and only back my top pick.
Speaking of which...hadn't expected At First Sight to go forward after his past few runs. Whacked away to the line but didn't settle all that well and was one of the first beaten.
jb03 said:
Yeah, and I'd put a line through all seven due to stubbornness and still having a few points in the bank after Efficient & Viewed. I don't like change, or the idea that the humble Geelong Cup has become an important lead-up. But I did take the time to look through their form, and couldn't have had 2nd, 6th or 7th in a pink fit. The realisation that some of the invaders are getting it right only adds to the difficulty.
NB The Poms are still Cup maidens.
And well done to yourself, Leysy & Pommell on finding the winner. :clap
Edit: Had Manighar (5th) in my top three; four runs here was enough to get a handle on him. Rated Americain (4th) fifth without ever considering him at the odds. The others were just too hard to assess. But it's all incidental as I gave up shooting at Cup trifectas years ago and only back my top pick.
Speaking of which...hadn't expected At First Sight to go forward after his past few runs. Whacked away to the line but didn't settle all that well and was one of the first beaten.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Leysy and I can often be at odds but when we are united we are a formidable force!
Agree too that AFS seemed to be ridden upside down from what we have seen.
In hindsight, Red Cadeaux's form around the french horses was very strong though Jukebox Jury was disappointing.LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Leysy and I can often be at odds but when we are united we are a formidable force!
Agree too that AFS seemed to be ridden upside down from what we have seen.
Tony Braxton-Hicks
There are no stupid ideas, just stupid people
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Best result ever: backed the winner and got the trifecta in the Cup.
Best result ever: backed the winner and got the trifecta in the Cup.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Great day on the punt.
I got Dunedan at 21/1 the morning of the Geelong Cup E/W and very happy with that.
Got a good chunk of the quaddie (payed well considering 3 of the winners were in the top 2 in the market).
Hope everyone backed a winner.
Great day on the punt.
I got Dunedan at 21/1 the morning of the Geelong Cup E/W and very happy with that.
Got a good chunk of the quaddie (payed well considering 3 of the winners were in the top 2 in the market).
Hope everyone backed a winner.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Just got home from a huge day at Flemington, backed Dunaden and watched Fabulist hang on to win in Adelaide at $2.90. Very much saddened by the news re Blood 17 sort of makes my day pale into insignificance. RIP Blood 17 - another good tiger gone, will miss his knowledge and history in the racing game.
Tiger44 said:
Just got home from a huge day at Flemington, backed Dunaden and watched Fabulist hang on to win in Adelaide at $2.90. Very much saddened by the news re Blood 17 sort of makes my day pale into insignificance. RIP Blood 17 - another good tiger gone, will miss his knowledge and history in the racing game.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
You legend well done. backed the winner and am drunk. But the trifey eluded us...just. Snake and gollywog got up, again. Our family syndicate has a an amazing strike rate of around 70 %. Keep thinkin we gotta fall over but after 10 years we keep getting up. Kudos to leysey and jb who cemented my tip and strengthened my resolve. Tomorrow I drive up the newell hwy from ballarrat to coonabarabran. With few extra bucks to ease pain.
Tony Braxton-Hicks said:
You legend well done. backed the winner and am drunk. But the trifey eluded us...just. Snake and gollywog got up, again. Our family syndicate has a an amazing strike rate of around 70 %. Keep thinkin we gotta fall over but after 10 years we keep getting up. Kudos to leysey and jb who cemented my tip and strengthened my resolve. Tomorrow I drive up the newell hwy from ballarrat to coonabarabran. With few extra bucks to ease pain.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
How close was that finish. Leysy went trackside to watch it and told the old fella above he was owed one after backing Bauer straight out at 40's in 08'.
Luckily Christophe had his horses head down at the right time.
Leysy's head hurts.
How close was that finish. Leysy went trackside to watch it and told the old fella above he was owed one after backing Bauer straight out at 40's in 08'.
Luckily Christophe had his horses head down at the right time.
Leysy's head hurts.
Tony Braxton-Hicks
There are no stupid ideas, just stupid people
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Get on Bauer on Saturday in the Queen Liz. The Cumanis are still in form: Manighar ran up to its best.
Get on Bauer on Saturday in the Queen Liz. The Cumanis are still in form: Manighar ran up to its best.
