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The Pros and Cons of Tanking (Merged)
- Thread starter AstuteTiger
- Start date
Must admit, watching dees yesterday they were impressive against freo. Another 2 draft picks to add to all that youth and you would think they have the jump on us in the rebuild process.
Very sad.
Very sad.
ROLLS ROYCE said:
Melbourne beat Freo. Yes something major to aspire to. Let's do it. Seriously Freo are the worst team in the comp by a mile when playing away from home. Every team looks good, even the Tigers, when there is no pressure applied by the opposition. Melbourne are not a great team and two extra picks in this draft is not going to miraculously turn them into one either. Both teams have an uphill battle over the next few years.
TIGEREXTRA said:
We definately are not certain to finish 15th. We are currently 14th; Freo are 15th and must win another game to jump ahead of us. The only chance this can happen is if they beat Essendon this week at Subi, which has been helpled by the injuries to Fletcher, Ryder, & Dempsey who will all miss. They play Geelong in the last round at Skilled Stadium so we can forget about a win there. As it stands, we're more likely to finish 14th. We also have to hope we don't beat Hawthorn or West Coast as well. To all those anti-tankers out there who didn't think we needed 3 top 20 picks because our list is fine; i hope you'll be satisfied with another 5-10 yrs of nothingness and no finals footy.
GO TIGES!!!
hmm we had the pick after rich 8. we had the pick after ryder 8 oh no dont tell me we had the pick after selwood 8 lets see whos left lewis yeah i suppose we could have taken him instead of tambling at 4.the simple fact is by bottoming out properly you do get that obvios pick at 1 2 or 3.GoodOne said:
ive said it before the state of the list is bottom 2 its been thios way for yrs yet we finish 12th thru 9th and kill any chance of grabbing the elite.
at the end of 07 and a 16th place finish wallace should have been made to cull and cull deep. those who are still there who allowed wallace to continue with his stupidity and not force a rebuild need to be culled. wallace had 3 yrs to get finals for the seniors and it ended with a spoon in 07 full on rebuild and a bottoming out process had to be implemented.instead well we all know what happened. from 07 to now we should have been looking at picks. 06 2 18 19 35 51 67 we trade away 19 and 35 unforgivable for where the list was at. 08 4 wins and 14th and picks 1 4 20 36 52 68. and this yr 09 picks 1 5 21 37 53 69.
this was in the power of the club to achieve ive been going on about this since wallace first said he wanted to achive finals for the long term underachievers what folly. those numbers represent cotchin rance selwood who we know we procrastinated over reid putt and bradly. 07 watts hartlett swift ashley smith, jones ruffles but in ruffles case it known we would have taken mcculloch here. this yr well scully for sure and possibly morabito or butcher at 5. add these players to deledio tambling riewoldt and you are on the way. yep im entitled to lament what might have been ive been voicing my opinions on it for it for yrs and copped plenty for having those opinions.
personally i will never forgive or forget those who allowed miller and wallace free reign. i will never forgive those in charge who have never had the guts and balls to properly bottom out and ignore the howls from the feral masses.
the claw said:
hmm I was just using pick 7 as an example. I could show you the same for players at pick 10 or 12. So once again I think you missed my point. Finishing bottom time and time again like the Tigers have in the past doesn't win you premierships. Picking the right players with your high picks and then complementing them with the right choices at other times will win you premierships. The Saints aren't where they are now because of their high draft picks 9 years ago. They are there because they complemented them with some great players below pick 10. We've had our fair chances to pick up excellent players with high draft picks. We've blown them. Has nothing to do with this perceived bottoming out theory. As has been shown over and over again many times, the most successful teams of the last 10 years haven't been those getting year after year of priority picks.
if we haven't bottomed out, we've had the same result for being simply a cr@p side. Draft and trade properly with the picks you have an you will be successful. It's the proven method and will be even more important come the 2010 to 2012 drafts. Don't do that well and the risk for teams will be dire.
GoodOne said:
Rubbish.
2000 ND Picks 1&2 - Reiwoldt & Kosi (Didak taken by Pies with Priority pick at 3)
2001 ND Saints have 5 picks in Top 21 - get Ball, X Clarke, Dal Santo, Gram & Matt Maguire
2002 ND Pick 1 - Goddard
You think they would have developed into the side they are without those 3 years? In 2000 the top ten was rounded out by
4 Luke Livingston
5 Andrew McDougall
6 Dylan Smith
7 Laurence Angwin
8 Daniel Motlop
9 Kayne Pettifer
10 Jordan McMahon
Take away the priorities and give them any one of the rest and they are not the team they are now.
Melb are adopting a similar method. Short term pain for long term gain. Bailey should be in the hot seat but barely a murmur is made about his record. Why - because everyone sees what he is doing.
Why don't people question their player development, recruiting, losing culture etc etc? Because they understand it's the onl;y real way to increase the chances of future success.
2007 - 3 picks in Top 21
2008 - 3 picks in Top 21
2009 - Top 2 picks plus another in Top 20
No guarantees but clearly a strategy with a better chance of succeeding than ours.
Do you think Melb are worried about their abysmal record in the last 3 years? Do you think the losing culture has ingrained itself in the club? Can you believe how much positive energy surrounds that club considering their recent record? They'll look back on the day Jordy kicked that goal with delight not dismay.
ppffttt utter dribble. never missed your point at all i was actually pointing out and doing a fine job of it of showing the damage done by not properly bottoming out. we missed selwood we missed rich we missed watts ans so on because we won meaningless games against battling sides who have better lists than us. dont kid yourself we have never bottomed out where we perenially finish is nowhere land.GoodOne said:
for such a crap period over the last 8 yrs we have had just one no1 pick and just the one no2 pick or used it in the nd.
02 14th we trade away pick 2 for a third string midfielder at a decent club.and down grade most other picks to top it all of we lose a very handy player into the bargain..
03 13th we trade picks 6 and 20 for a hff. never mind we have huge deficiencies in critical areas and we have the worst list in the comp.
dont tell me these are the actions of a club in rebuild or a club bottoming out. they are the actions of a club in self denial a club who chronically overrates its list.
04 16th low and behold we use pick 0ne hallelujah. a pp. on the most talented kid we have had at the club in yrs.
what does this tell ya about gunning for top 3 picks and gunning for two picks in the top 5 or 6. the only yr in 8 where we have embraced the draft and early picks. we have a bit of a clean out but in typical richmond overvaluing players we only do half the job.
05 12th pick 8 and we waste it. we also only use 3 nd picks and continue to target retreads hardly the actions of a club in rebuild. hardly the actions of a club bottoming out yet we should be.
06 9th we have a top 10 pick but down trade and trade away a third round pick. we continue to trade for other clubs rubbish and in the main the retreads prove to be just that rubbish. but hey we finished 9th we arent that badwe dont need top 10 picks we are just the odd retread away. are these the actions of a club in rebuild re they the actions of a club bottoming out sheesh.
07 16th we only get pick 2 but bloody hell miracles never cease we use it in the nd and snare potentially one of the best players going around. but alas the club is still in denial we get a pp but trade it we also trade away pick 35 to top it all of we effectively use just 3 nd picks. using 19 and 35 on retreads is not enough for them though they have to take kingsley in the psd bloody hell no wonder we are the laughing stock of the afl.hardly the actions of a club in rebuild hardly the actions of a club bottoming out.
08 9th yep that 9th place cons them all again we are 9th but in reality we are bottom 2. what do we do we trade for thomson and hislop and in the process we utilise just 3 nd picks we then take 30 yr old cousins in the psd. please dont tell me these are the actions of a club in rebuild please dont tell me these are the actions of a club going thru a proper bottoming out process.
09 possibly 14 th this yr. we have the chance to aquire a pp but deem scrappy pathetic wins against nm and melb more important.
all those low finishes and we have had just 2 pps. one of which we traded away. all those low finishes and we have had and utilsed just one no 1 pick and one no 2 pick.
dont confuse low to middling finishes, and we have had plenty with rebuilds or bottoming out. we have never done either. its an insult to peoples intelligence to suggest otherwise. wake up to yourself and open your bloody eyes for once.
Big Cat Lover said:
And you reckon my post was rubbish.
Positive energy surrounding the Melbourne Football Club...lol....is this the same club that drew a crowd of 7000 at home against Sydney in late July. Or how about the 16K that went to North last week. Or the 13K that watched their great win against Fremantle on Sunday. Yep its a buzzing alright. Geez you would think that you'd use real examples of tanking to prove your point, but no we'll show you how good Melbourne are at tanking, surely to become a power house in 8 or 9 years time just like Saints out of this. Forget about the upteen premiers of the last whatever years that didnt get 8 top 20 picks in 3 years.
Then you use the Saints example of the year 2000. 9 years ago that is apparently the basis of their current success. Here's a list of the Tigers draft picks from 1999 to 2007 and the Saints.
2007 2 Trent Cotchin
2007 18 Alex Rance
2007 51 Dean Putt
2007 16 Adam Pattison
2006 13 Jack Reiwoldt
2006 26 Shane Edwards
2006 58 Daniel Connors
2006 60 Carl Peterson
2006 73 Andrew Collins
2005 8 Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls
2005 24 Cleve Hughes
2005 40 Travis Casserly
2004 1 Brett Deledio
2004 4 Richard Tambling
2004 12 Danny Meyer
2004 16 Adam Pattison
2004 20 Dean Polo
2004 36 Luke McGuane
2004 52 Dean Limbach
2004 65 Mark Graham
2003 21 Alex Gilmore
2003 37 Tom Roach
2003 53 Daniel Jackson
2003 64 Shane Morrison
2003 70 Brent Hartigan
2003 73 Shane Tuck
2003 76 Andrew Raines (FS)
2003 79 Simon Fletcher
2003 81 Kyle Archibald
2002 12 Jay Schulz
2002 41 Tim Fleming
2002 47 Billy Nicholls
2002 62 Daniel Sipthorp
2001 33 David Rodan
2001 63 Adam L. Houlihan
2001 68 Chris Hyde
2001 77 Martin McGrath
2000 9 Kayne Pettifer
2000 25 Mark Coughlan
2000 40 Chris Hyde
2000 55 Chris Newman
1999 3 Aaron Fiora
1999 22 Ezra Poyas
1999 39 Scott Homewood
1999 52 Andrew Mills
and the Saints
2007 9 Ben McEvoy
2007 42 Jack Steven
2007 57 Fraser Gehrig
2007 70 Eljay Connors
2006 9 David Armitage
2006 49 Brad Howard
2006 59 Jarryd Allan
2006 74 Matthew Ferguson
2005 33 Sam Gilbert
2005 49 Michael Rix
2005 63 Phillip Raymond
2005 71 Justin Sweeney
2004 17 Andrew McQualter
2004 33 Cain Ackland
2004 49 Mark McGough
2004 63 James Gwilt
2003 8 Raphael Clarke
2003 55 Samuel Fisher
2003 65 Craig Callaghan
2002 1 Brendon Goddard
2002 22 Matthew Ferguson
2002 46 Leigh Fisher
2001 2 Luke Ball
2001 5 Xavier Clarke
2001 13 Nick Del Santo
2001 19 Jason Gram
2001 21 Matt Maguire
2001 37 Leigh Montagna
2001 49 Josh Houlihan
2000 1 Nick Riewoldt
2000 2 Justin Koschitzke
2000 64 Mark Gale
2000 75 Robert Powell
2000 82 Daniel Wulf
1999 9 Caydn Beetham
1999 24 Jason Blake
1999 54 Murray Pitts
1999 68 Tony Delaney
Just for your benefit, lets look at the total number of high picks for each team:
Richmond: 1,2,3,4,9,12,12,13,16,16,18,20,21,22,24,26
Saints: 1,1,2,2,5,8,9,9,9,13,1719,22,21,24
Shock horror, 1 high draft pick extra in the top 5 since 1999. So why the are the Saints on top and the Tigers 14th? Because they bottomed out and we didnt? Thats a crock. If this is the case then it really is great news as our top 3 pick this year will put us on par for top 5 picks with the Saints and we will surely be premier contenders within the next couple of years.
But we know thats not true. The fact is the Saints have recruited better with their less prized picks: Dal Santo at 13, Montagna at 37, Sam Gilbert at 33, Hudghton at 15, Sam Fisher at 55, Gram at 19, Blake at 24,. Then also picked up trades that benefited the club such as Farren Ray, Gardiner, Dawson, Dempster
Spot the difference. Most clubs can attract a few quality players, its your ability to build depth that makes you competitive. And this is not built from 'tanking' to get high draft picks. The science is a lot more complex than that.
the claw said:
Most of what you said here has nothing to do with bottoming out but to do with poor recruiting decisions. Exactly the point I've been making. The most successful clubs of the last 10+ years have not been successful due to bottoming out, Im sorry but thems are the facts. Compare any club over the last 10 years compared to Richmond, and the Tigers have had .a higher quantity of draft picks than almost all of them. Our issue has been our drafting policy. You dont need repeated picks nbr 1 and 2 to be successful, you need a quality recruiting team otherwise you risk doing what we've done with our high draft picks of recent years, waste it by not building depth around them with your lower picks.
GoodOne said:
Shock horror - Richmond has half the No. 1 or 2 picks and half the Top 10 picks - which would you prefer?
And compare the 2000-2002 saints drafts to any 3 year period you want for the tigers - what do you get?
You lok at a couple of the years and the Tigers have done OK from lower picks - Collins, Tuck, Newman.
So you don't think Melb will be passing Richmond on the ladder any time soon? So you don't think their future is a little brighter? Wake up, a bit like those supporters who couldn't predict Carlton's improvement at the start of the year.
You honestly prefer the wins over Melb/Ess to 2 extra picks in Top 20?
Agree that a Montagna at 37 & Fisher at 55 are great gets but it still revolves around consecutive years of high picks
GoodOne said:
Interesting post. It's not like we haven't had our chances, although most of our picks were taken 2004 or later so haven't reached their full potential yet.
Big Cat Lover said:
I don't think anyone would disagree with you, but Goody's point is that we haven't used the picks we've had well enough, irrespective of where they've been.
Unless we sort out the recruiting staff and drafting policies, we could have picks 1-10 for the next 5 years and still go nowhere.
GoodOne i agree with you so much.
The key is utilising every pick you have, use the rookie draft, and if you were to trade for picks use late picks on list requirements.
Its having the right areas to develop your list properly and a coach to see this through. The past decade has been dissatrous because one coach thought he was a few players away from challenging and the other coach was trying to play finals and couldnt make the hard calls and traded away our picks for players we didnt require. In the end he was just in self preservation mode trying to get a contract extension. He made wrong calls on the list and this rubbed onto the players.
Thats why this draft and the appointment of the next coach for 2-3 years is the most critical and important appointment in the clubs history going forward. Get both wrong and we will have another 10 years of pain.
Claw makes his point but i am with GoodOne on this.
Every draft there are gems to be found. We have to utilise this draft to the max. 8-10 picks. All kids. If possible and if we are lucky we may be able for once to trade a number of players. If we are lucky in this , trade for picks even if they are 3rd round picks. Again use those picks on kids.
We have to be smart and look at all areas for players. Look at Irish kids, look at kids at other VFL clubs that fit the criteria we need to go forward. Take them as rookies. Do our homework properly. If we have 8-10 picks we should have at least 40 kids that we have looked at. All these kids should no longer be deficient in the skills of the modern footballer. I know people have said this draft is shallow , thin , or this draft is a good one. Dosent matter which it is . Our recruiter(s) should not be have their blinkers on and believe the pool is thin. Look outside the box for once.
You dont have to bottom out for 5 years to get prized picks. This has an accumulated effect. Look at crowds for the Dees. I wonder how many of us supporters here would be still supporting the club in any way if for 5 years we were last or second last ? I tell you this membership would be down, sponsorship $ would be down, we could have lost any promising kids because we were unsuccessful , no $ for facilities and attracting worthwhile people(coaches) would be hard.
Bottoming out for high draft picks doesnt gurantee you premierships at all. Its how you utilise the picks you have that gives you the chance at success and how you develop your kids that are the keys.
I wonder how many as i said on here would be "ferals " if we were crap and finishing last for the past 5 years just to get draft picks. Thats why the players cant deliver because we accept mediocre performances or want the club to "bottom out".
I hope the new coach rattles the players and has them believing that they are not as bad as what they are playing. The last 5 years has stalled alot of the the players development and alot of false promises have come our way. Mistakes were made.
You have to believe it can be turned around. If we dont believe this then what hope is there supporting. We have waited 27 years and i for one will want this noted down and remembered that within two years we WILL PLAY FINALS.
TANKING ISNT THE ANSWER. BELIEF IS.
THE KEY IS THIS APPOINTMENT AND THIS DRAFT
waiting.
The key is utilising every pick you have, use the rookie draft, and if you were to trade for picks use late picks on list requirements.
Its having the right areas to develop your list properly and a coach to see this through. The past decade has been dissatrous because one coach thought he was a few players away from challenging and the other coach was trying to play finals and couldnt make the hard calls and traded away our picks for players we didnt require. In the end he was just in self preservation mode trying to get a contract extension. He made wrong calls on the list and this rubbed onto the players.
Thats why this draft and the appointment of the next coach for 2-3 years is the most critical and important appointment in the clubs history going forward. Get both wrong and we will have another 10 years of pain.
Claw makes his point but i am with GoodOne on this.
Every draft there are gems to be found. We have to utilise this draft to the max. 8-10 picks. All kids. If possible and if we are lucky we may be able for once to trade a number of players. If we are lucky in this , trade for picks even if they are 3rd round picks. Again use those picks on kids.
We have to be smart and look at all areas for players. Look at Irish kids, look at kids at other VFL clubs that fit the criteria we need to go forward. Take them as rookies. Do our homework properly. If we have 8-10 picks we should have at least 40 kids that we have looked at. All these kids should no longer be deficient in the skills of the modern footballer. I know people have said this draft is shallow , thin , or this draft is a good one. Dosent matter which it is . Our recruiter(s) should not be have their blinkers on and believe the pool is thin. Look outside the box for once.
You dont have to bottom out for 5 years to get prized picks. This has an accumulated effect. Look at crowds for the Dees. I wonder how many of us supporters here would be still supporting the club in any way if for 5 years we were last or second last ? I tell you this membership would be down, sponsorship $ would be down, we could have lost any promising kids because we were unsuccessful , no $ for facilities and attracting worthwhile people(coaches) would be hard.
Bottoming out for high draft picks doesnt gurantee you premierships at all. Its how you utilise the picks you have that gives you the chance at success and how you develop your kids that are the keys.
I wonder how many as i said on here would be "ferals " if we were crap and finishing last for the past 5 years just to get draft picks. Thats why the players cant deliver because we accept mediocre performances or want the club to "bottom out".
I hope the new coach rattles the players and has them believing that they are not as bad as what they are playing. The last 5 years has stalled alot of the the players development and alot of false promises have come our way. Mistakes were made.
You have to believe it can be turned around. If we dont believe this then what hope is there supporting. We have waited 27 years and i for one will want this noted down and remembered that within two years we WILL PLAY FINALS.
TANKING ISNT THE ANSWER. BELIEF IS.
THE KEY IS THIS APPOINTMENT AND THIS DRAFT
waiting.
Freezer said:
Just because it has been poor in the past doesn't mean it will always be that way. The club appears to have taken steps in a positive direction in many areas off the field.
I think the most recent draft is an example of how better honed the whole process now is - surely having more picks earlier on gives us a greater chance at building depth - player development is as much built on being surrounded with and traning with better quality players as the systems the club employs.
Of course there are no gurantees but it WAS, IMO, our best option.
Do players still put a price on their head in the PS draft? As we (apparently) have plenty of spending room in the cap, maybe a quality player could be enticed into the PS draft on the promise of big $. We engineered a similar situation with Gaspar.
