The Pros and Cons of Tanking (Merged)

[martyshire]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Wouldn't work, there would be tanking to finish 13-16 so as to be eligible for the #1 pick. Finish 12th and your best pick is #5.

Needs to be a probability-weighted lottery involving the non-finalists, without subdivisions.

I agree that there shouldn't be sub-divisions. Interesting about the probaility-weighted lottery idea. It might not remove the current problem altogether but instead water it down.

The draft is already probability weighted in a sense as #1 pick does not necessarily give you the best player, but it does give you the best chance of getting the best player. In this line of thinking, the fact that it is probability-weighted doesn't stop the tanking.

If you had a probability-weighted lottery, it would give the bottom team the highest probability of having the best chance of getting the best player. It's the same incentive, only weaker. Maybe teams would tank and maybe not. It probably depends on the exact weighting.

I'd sooner just have a simple lottery from 9-16. Even if the bottom team is extremely unlucky for 5 years in a row and gets 5 consecutive pick #8s, 5 consecutive # 24s, etc, they should be able to climb the ladder a bit.

 

[TOT70]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

I agree that there shouldn't be sub-divisions. Interesting about the probaility-weighted lottery idea. It might not remove the current problem altogether but instead water it down.

The draft is already probability weighted in a sense as #1 pick does not necessarily give you the best player, but it does give you the best chance of getting the best player. In this line of thinking, the fact that it is probability-weighted doesn't stop the tanking.

If you had a probability-weighted lottery, it would give the bottom team the highest probability of having the best chance of getting the best player. It's the same incentive, only weaker. Maybe teams would tank and maybe not. It probably depends on the exact weighting.

I'd sooner just have a simple lottery from 9-16. Even if the bottom team is extremely unlucky for 5 years in a row and gets 5 consecutive pick #8s, 5 consecutive # 24s, etc, they should be able to climb the ladder a bit.

I've posted on this topic before and I think I have a good solution to the Priority Pick problem.

The issue is that teams lose the picks when they win too many games. In other words, the PP is tied to the number of games won. This encourages teams looking to rebuild to think about losing more games than they really should, to maximise their benefits, causing a big problem.

I think the PPs should be tied to consecutive years of missing finals. Give a PP to every team that finishes in the bottom 8 but disqualify teams from a PP for several years every time they make finals and for longer if they win flags, play in GFs or make the top 4.

In this manner, perennially lowly teams keep getting Priority picks until they make finals and teams that win Premierships or play in Grand Finals have to wait a few years before they can rebuild via the PP system when they taper off after a few years of finals.

The problem is not the existence of Priority Picks. The problem is that you have to be really, really, really crap in a given year to get one and that takes away the incentive to try to win games for a while. YOu have to be so crap that it is unlikely that you can achieve it without a bit of creativity.

The other issue is that teams like West Coast should not be permitted to win a flag and fall to the bottom of the ladder to clean up a few PPs straightaway.

Who would have been annoyed if Hawthorn or Port Adelaide received a Priority Pick this year, or if Geelong get one in 2010, or St Kilda in 2011? That would just not be right.

 

[Disco08]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Yeah that sounds like a very smart idea Tottie.

 

[Scoop]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Well that's the problem, how are we going to get extra selections?

'

Move on one of the youngsters who are while they still have some currency.

Daniel Jackson or Luke McGuane or both!! Just pinch one second rounder and one third rounder.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Move on one of the youngsters who are while they still have some currency.

Daniel Jackson or Luke McGuane or both!! Just pinch one second rounder and one third rounder.

They're certainly not untradeable though I'd be more likely to move on McGuane than Jackson howver if Cameron can work his magic to extract those picks for them then go for it.

 

[thomas the tiger]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Toto have you lost your mind.

You have just reimplemented the Carlton recruiting pholosphy under Pagan when he recruited ordinary AFL players that were cut from there first club. Those guys turned out to be so average I have already forgotten there names.

Let me think, Digby Morell, McKernan, J Murphy, Blonde hair guy that won their B&F, M Martyn

Claw can you put some sense into these people I can't believe people can think along these lines.

 

[mad_tiggy911]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Please move on Jackson, White, Tuck, Coughlan, McGuane or Rance. Hopefully get a 2nd rounder for at least one of these duds.

 

[Disco08]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Duds? Do you know the meaning of the word 'support'?

 

[Brodders17]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Toto have you lost your mind.

You have just reimplemented the Carlton recruiting pholosphy under Pagan when he recruited ordinary AFL players that were cut from there first club. Those guys turned out to be so average I have already forgotten there names.

Let me think, Digby Morell, McKernan, J Murphy, Blonde hair guy that won their B&F, M Martyn

Claw can you put some sense into these people I can't believe people can think along these lines.

yeah, and look at the saints. theyve got gardner, king, schnieder, dawson, ray, milne, begley, dempster, +jones drafted as a 23(?)yr old (have i missed anyone?) and they suck.
i dont think tot70 is saying all our picks should be 22yr olds, but it would be foolish to discount older young players.

 

[the claw]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

We were no *smile*ing chance for Scully, god I thought we were over this tanking *smile* when we lost the chance for a PP but no now we should tank to improve our draft position probably 1 place, if they bring in a lottery there will be calls to tank from idiots like you to improve our chances of getting the no. 1 pick, when will it stop. Read my LIPS WE ARE NOT GOING TO TANK to marginally improve our position so stop boring the rest of us with this crap.

have you had a look at the title of the thread.if you dont want to talk about the title dont read the thread. i believe tis an appropriate thread to discuss the PROS and cons of tanking.

 

[Disco08]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Agreed claw. If talk of tanking bores you don't read a thread with a title obviously inferring the discussion will be about exactly that.

 

[TOT70]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Toto have you lost your mind.

You have just reimplemented the Carlton recruiting pholosphy under Pagan when he recruited ordinary AFL players that were cut from there first club. Those guys turned out to be so average I have already forgotten there names.

Let me think, Digby Morell, McKernan, J Murphy, Blonde hair guy that won their B&F, M Martyn

Claw can you put some sense into these people I can't believe people can think along these lines.

I think I gave 13 examples, 10 of whom are at their first AFL club. Hudson is at his 2nd but I was referring to his recruitment to Adelaide as a 22 year old from Werribee. Dawson is the only player whose circumstances may be similar to your Carlton recruiting policy.

Would you be happy to have Dale Morris, Porplyzia, Vince and Lovett at Richmond? I reckon they might just get the occasional game.

Their clubs didn't have to trade anything for them, they used late picks or rookie picks on each of them and they basically walked straight into their teams as ready made players, just like Nahas has.

So no, I do't think I have lost my mind.

 

[davidrodan]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Agreed claw. If talk of tanking bores you don't read a thread with a title obviously inferring the discussion will be about exactly that.

Wait, this thread is bout tanking... :theyareontome

 

[TimTamMan]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

Look, you could not tell if Richmond was tnaking or not - Some weeks we show skill - others, like last week was a poor one. Even though we won the four points, our coaching staff would have to had been diapointed with the display put on.

And in regards to how old shold our recruits be, well lets just say that last year we recruited a 30+ player with skills and football nouse and he is doing all right.

We want players young - middle - or later who can really use the ball by hand, foot and most importantly mind.

Richmond has suffered for so long beause failings of a majority of players in a majority of those areas.

Why is Dan Rich so good, yes he kicks well and handballs well - but more importantly he sets up other players and hits targets because he has vision!!!!!!! He uses his brain !

It's alright saying play on at all costs, but it's no use handballing it to a player after you have marked a ball if that player is heavily marked - and we do that all the time, particularly last week in the middle of the ground!

So no we are not tanking because all we really no how to do well is loose.
We will continue to be incosistant in our team's performance because our players (and I could easily name 15 or so from last week) consistantly play inconsistanly not only week to week but also from quater to quater!
We need to recruit confident, reasonably skilled young men who know how to use their brain on the field.

 

[AstuteTiger]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

What wil be a problem this year is the Rookie Draft. With a reduced pool, it is quite likely that there won't be much on offer in terms of 18 year olds.

GC have the first 5 pics in the rookie draft this year, so yeah some what reduced but there will be plenty of 18 yr olds on offer, id prefer to be targeting 18 and 19 yr olds In the Rookie Draft than early 20's....

 

[jb03]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

I look forward with interest as to how Cameron now expects to 'invest heavily in the draft'.

I think that means having four picks this year instead of our stock standard three.

 

[Harry]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

I think that means having four picks this year instead of our stock standard three.

yep - that's what it means

 

[Scoop]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

I think that means having four picks this year instead of our stock standard three.

HAHAHAHAHA.

Sad but true. Imagine if we just managed to unload one extra player and have a amazing FIVE picks. I would be over the moon. Two players and six picks and I would lose it. Amazing outcome.

Jackson and McGuane for a late second to fourth round picks would be a massive improvement.

 

[AstuteTiger]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

HAHAHAHAHA.

Sad but true. Imagine if we just managed to unload one extra player and have a amazing FIVE picks. I would be over the moon. Two players and six picks and I would lose it. Amazing outcome.

Jackson and McGuane for a late second to fourth round picks would be a massive improvement.

If we can extract a 2nd rounder for either of these 2 id take it...Jackson and McGuane

Hopefully *smile* isnt damaged goods and we can get a 3rd rounder for him...Port maybe "again" or Dogs or Sydney

 

[Tigers of Old]

Re: To win or not to win - Draft pics V late season wins

I think that means having four picks this year instead of our stock standard three.

Cuttingly accurate.

Obviously Cameron hasn't been around long enough to realise that whilst we'll happily give over our picks for other clubs duds none will give up much if anything for our unwanted offcuts. It will be an effort to trade any of our players for picks this season before GC17. Good luck with that Craig.