Disco08 said:
Why 10%? Why not 20%, or 25%, or 30%? That still fits easily into the 'very unlikely' category, especially if you compare it to the success rate within the first 3 rounds.
Jesse Smith and Cale Hooker while promising, are far from 'making it' too. Collins, Gray and Hill also haven't done anything to prove they belong in the category of long term AFL player just yet. When these guys are 26 and have 100 games under their belts come back to me.
10 games a year since being drafted would seem reasonable to me for someone who's made a reasonable contribution to their club(s). If we look at drafts are old enough to have let the draftees develop, the evidence is pretty clear:
1998 - 2 players out of 36 meet this criteria, neither of them talls. 21 out of 46 in the frist 3 rounds qualify.
1999 - 7/40 (1) & 26/47
2000 - 8/27 (1, Wakelin who was already established) & 25/47
2001 - 5/23 (2) & 24/51
2002 - 5/25 (1) & 18/44
2003 - 5/21 (2) & 20/49
If we include the PSD and rookie drafts the numbers are predicatably even worse.
Don't want to get into a "what % is very unlikely" arguement but I will.
I would think 25-30% is not "very unlikley".
Very unlikley = very little chance = about 1 in 10. Maybe Leysy with his familiarity with odds and % can provide an expert answer.
In regards to the drafts I was only referring to talls taken so thought I would start from 1998 (geez it takes too much time)
1998 - Talls drafted in the first 3 rounds - successful YES or NO using your 10 games per year benchmark
2 - Longmuir - YES
4 - R Fitzgerald - NO
6 - M Vance - NO
13 - C Lamb - NO
14 - L Penny - YES
17 - P Street - NO (78 games in 8 years but did play more than 10 in some years)
18 - D Schell - NO
25 - A Henneman - NO
33 - C Bolton - YES
38 - B Fevola - YES
39 - T Thurstans - YES
48 - L Herbert - NO
Out of 12 talls in first 3 rounds (how big was Nick Lowther - could not find any stats) 5 have played at least 10 games per year. 3 of the 5 drafted in the 3rd round mind you - 41.67% success.
4th ROUND and beyond
52 - R Oconnor - NO
56 - I Grgic - NO (drafted by Ess and played only 2 games after 85 games in 6 years with dogs/west coast)
58 - I Prendergast - YES (6 years 65 games)
65 - L Walker - NO
66 - S Rode - NO
70 - K Heazlewood - NO
71 - S Feast - NO
75 - K McGregor - YES (10 years 152 games)
79 - R Hall - YES (as much as it pains me - 7 years 99 games)
There are a number of players drafted who never played and who I cannot get details for - actually 5. So there may be say another 2 to add. Given that, there is approx 3 out of 11 talls that were drafted after 3rd round that "made it' = 27.27% success. A bit higher than very unlikely (depending on Leysys feedback)
I don't really know why I did this, and i'm sure the strike rates get better in later years for talls taken with early picks. It sort of shows you that it is difficult to get good tall players. And I haven't even looked at PSD or Rookie draft. And I need a coffee.
I just hope that moving forward our success rate with our talls selections is pretty high - and I don't mean succes of the Ray Hall type, although he did better than most from his draft year so well done Ray.
And, I think its extremely unlikley (about 5% chance) that I will get to years 1999-2003.
