-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
The case for a KPP draft pick
- Thread starter SAF
- Start date
The general feeling seems to be that we should go with best available talent with Pick 3.
It is interesting that in the 04 draft no one rated Roughead as better than Lids, Tambling or Griffen before the draft but Hawthorn went with him at #2 anyway. I'm sure we were hoping that we would get Lids at 1 and Roughead at 4 in that draft (I know I was). Roughead is likely to become the most valuable player to his team from that draft, unless Lids significantly improves to the Judd level which I am pretty sure he won't (hopefully Cotchin does). Griffen and Tambling are both never going to be elite, they may become very good players but not at the Judd/Ablett level. I still think we have already seen the best of Franklin and he will not emulate the 2008 form again in his career.
It seems to be easier to find a decent midfielder at a lower pick (don't forget Foley was a rookie) then a KPP. Most of the best KPPs I can think of are all high picks or father sons. Nick Riewolt (1), Pavlich (5), Jon Brown (father son), Scarlett (father son), Roughhead (2), Franklin (5), Ryder (6), Fraser (1), Kreuzer (1), T Cloke (father son), Chad Cornes (9)
The only exceptions to this are: Fevola (38), Cox (rookie), Rutten (rookie)
I still reckon that if there is a quaility mid and a quailty KPP then we have to go KPP, unless we are talking a Tom Williams (a pick 6) versus a Joel Selwood (a pick 7). It sounds like it really depends on the quaility of Butcher. Anway, if one of the mids available is going to be the next Joel Selwood then I will be happy. I just don't see how we will have a decent spine for a long time. Post, Vickery, Rance and Riewolt all better become top liners otherwise we are in trouble without any good draft picks over the next few years (thank to GC and West Syd).
<end rant>
It is interesting that in the 04 draft no one rated Roughead as better than Lids, Tambling or Griffen before the draft but Hawthorn went with him at #2 anyway. I'm sure we were hoping that we would get Lids at 1 and Roughead at 4 in that draft (I know I was). Roughead is likely to become the most valuable player to his team from that draft, unless Lids significantly improves to the Judd level which I am pretty sure he won't (hopefully Cotchin does). Griffen and Tambling are both never going to be elite, they may become very good players but not at the Judd/Ablett level. I still think we have already seen the best of Franklin and he will not emulate the 2008 form again in his career.
It seems to be easier to find a decent midfielder at a lower pick (don't forget Foley was a rookie) then a KPP. Most of the best KPPs I can think of are all high picks or father sons. Nick Riewolt (1), Pavlich (5), Jon Brown (father son), Scarlett (father son), Roughhead (2), Franklin (5), Ryder (6), Fraser (1), Kreuzer (1), T Cloke (father son), Chad Cornes (9)
The only exceptions to this are: Fevola (38), Cox (rookie), Rutten (rookie)
I still reckon that if there is a quaility mid and a quailty KPP then we have to go KPP, unless we are talking a Tom Williams (a pick 6) versus a Joel Selwood (a pick 7). It sounds like it really depends on the quaility of Butcher. Anway, if one of the mids available is going to be the next Joel Selwood then I will be happy. I just don't see how we will have a decent spine for a long time. Post, Vickery, Rance and Riewolt all better become top liners otherwise we are in trouble without any good draft picks over the next few years (thank to GC and West Syd).
<end rant>
SAF said:
Brett will prove to be the best player taken in this draft over the journey........and ritchie will not be that far behind him!
SAF said:
Excellent post. Where exactly will our quality KPP come from if we don't grab Butcher if he is available? How many years will we have to wait until we have the opportunity to find one and if there is one what would we have to give up to get him? (and then if he is a youngster how many years will we have to wait for him to start delivering bearing in mind the truism that big men take longer to develope?). The real danger is that if we ignore Butcher (and let's assume he is worthy of a third or fourth pick) that we potentially are following in Footscrays footsteps. Yes they have a wonderful midfield (and yes I know many here would readily trade places at the moment with them in a heartbeat), but why are they considered the rank outsiders to win a premiership? Simply because they lack a power forward to kick to under the pressure cooker conditions of finals football. To underline how hard it is to find a power forward they have toyed (and many continue to be doing so) in recruiting a declining loose cannon in Barry Hall well into his thirties. Do we wish to be that desperate to secure one if we do get to Footscrays level?
Phantom is right if possible deal with the spine first. And it is easier finding an A-grade midfielder late in the draft than an A-Grade tall. The fact is that young talls even underperforming ones retain their trade currency at a far greater level and far longer than mids or flankers. That should tell us something. Chances are Butcher will be gone anyhow, but we are trying to build a premiership team here, it's not simply about the best player available it's also about chronic need. If not now then when and from where? In the long run it could cost us a hell of a lot more to remedy the problem if we don't address it now.
SAF said:
Conversely Plenty of very poor Key position players have gone very early as well.
Graham Polak, David Hale, Luke Molan, Tim, Walsh, Jason, Laycock, Kepler Bradley, John Meesan, Tom Williams, Marcus Drum, Beau Dowler, Lachlan Hansen & Mitch Thorp are all top 10 picks from this decade.
Dont ever reach with your early picks. Best player available. If its a KP so be it or not, thats fine as well.
If it comes down to Morabito or Butcher, I just wonder who exactly represents the biggest risk?
Butcher has big question marks over his kicking yet is a fine contested mark and extremely agile.
Morabito is a low possesion flashy player who is predominantly a receiver - does this make him a true midfielder? At what price do we take a utility?
If Trengove is gone, I believe we must take Butcher. The GC will pillage the next draft and will no doubt stockpile all the KP players on offer.
Butcher has big question marks over his kicking yet is a fine contested mark and extremely agile.
Morabito is a low possesion flashy player who is predominantly a receiver - does this make him a true midfielder? At what price do we take a utility?
If Trengove is gone, I believe we must take Butcher. The GC will pillage the next draft and will no doubt stockpile all the KP players on offer.
Leysy Days said:
That is true, but my point was how many great KPPs have come from late picks?
I agree that we don't want to over reach, my point really was that we if a mid and KPP are fairly similar in pros vs cons then we have to go KPP. From what I have read Scully is the only stand out (Judd/Ablett quailty) mid in the draft this year, no way we will get him at Pick 3 therefore we would be better to target the best KPP in the draft (exactly like Hawthorn did with Roughhead).
I forget to mention that Richo (father son) and Ottens (2) are 2 other handy KPPs as well. I really can't think of any quaility KPPs at late picks other the 3 I already posted above.
SAF said:
Just to further back this up:
Montagna (37), Swan (58), Black (31), Kirk (rookie), Goodwin (overlooked, then pre-season draft), McLeod (Freo inaugural pick then traded for Chris Groom), Sewell (rookie), Ling (38), Nick Stevens (25), Brent Harvey (47), Foley (rookie)
Quite a few handy types in that list. Brownlow winners (plus 2 of the favourites this year), All-Australians, Best and Fairest winners, premership players, Norm Smith medalists, club captains, games record holder (McLeod at Crows) and a partiridge in a pear tree.
Anyway my point is that there is hardly any of the current top KPPs who weren't a top pick or father son pick but there are plenty of mids who are some of the best going around that were picked with late picks. Suggests to me that it is much harder to pick a top KPP with a late pick and there is much more chance of developing a mid with a later pick (we have been doing the opposite of this a lot of the time)
Add to that the value of KPPs (anyone remember the Nathan Thompson and Johnthan Hay deals), and there is some pretty good reasons to think seriously about focusing on KPPs this draft.
Tony Braxton-Hicks
There are no stupid ideas, just stupid people
SAF said:
Thats all well & good, but how many ball winning midfielders drafted top 10 haven't turned out. Its nowhere near the ratio of the big lads.
Are you watching the game now, we have such a dearth of talent across the board that we are in absolutely no position to be picky on talent.
Leysy Days said:
I had to turn away from the game tonight, it was hurting my eyes to watch. Two of our best mids in Foley and Cotchin are out tonight whereas Richo is the only decent one of KPPs that is out (Vickery is only is his first year).
You are right that many of the top 10 mids have worked out, but what I was trying to explain in my post is that the hit rate for mids at the later part of the draft is much higher too. KPPs are harder to get right, so picking the very best KPP prospects at the start of the draft increases the chances of getting a good one whereas a risk on a mid at the later part has more chance of working out. For instance we took Putt quite late, the probability of him becoming a regular KPP in the senior team is very very low.
SAF said:
Thats all well & good. But the bottom line is you need to be sure that they are the VERY BEST KP prospects as you state. Because if your not sure there's a good chance they'll end up one of the many sour KP lemons leysy showed earlier.
If we are sure then fine, go for it. If not lets grab an A grade Mid we also need. Because rest assured teams need 8 quality midfielders to push high into the finals. We aren't close yet there either. Heck Priddis & Adam Selwood just touched us up.
