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Ruthless or reluctant? Time for the club to choose
- Thread starter Baron Samedi
- Start date
without analysing the data,
I reckon history would suggest we wont get a player as good as bakes with the pick/s we gain.
and thats what historical data would show,
modern data, there's more clubs and less talent IMHO.
Danny at 28? is a different proposition.
I go through this in my head every single year with my old Utes.
I love them, I know them, but they're near the end.
how long will they last? how much is the new one? how good will it be?
for me, they are tradable, because they are HBF'ers.
Dusty is the greatest of all time and $hai is an irreplaceable freak of nature.
they are not tradable. they are priceless.
though I would consider giving up $hai if we got 5 first rounders and complete ownership and total legal and moral immunity over Steve Hocking and Gil McLachlan
got it, all good. comes down to an assessment of list.
we may very well end up with a good hand as it is, but my argument is that we need better than great, we need a generational hand. which is ever so slightly, if you squint hard enough, possible.
like antman said I'd be rapt if they tried. such ruthless intent would be great to see. I also think we need to shift our traditional thinking on what's possible, or even decorous. suitors like Fremantle and GC, should they fall short this year, will be the sweatiest players in the draft.
We trade out all our experience we lose every game by 80-100 points, lose the good young players we do get and resign ourselves to a decade in the doldrums.
We already have a very early draft pick, a whole stack of later picks that can be traded into earlier picks. Realistically you would probably only have 5- 6 kids taken in the draft. I think baker is likely gone. We will likely end up with a late first / early second round pick for him.
Dusty is a free agent so we aren't getting a first round pick for him even if he did leave. Think its more likely he retires.
The value thing we could and should be doing is acquiring talent not currently getting a game on other lists via player for player trades with some of our fringe talent. Would another club like to get a look at a Sonsie for example who i have my doubts over? Grigg for Collins caused melts galore here when it happened (Lenny Hayes mark 2 according to some) but there is value to be found in filling holes on the list with some moneyball type players as well as using the draft.
Hopefully Hartley, Livingstone, Toce etc have a more sensible and less doomsday approach than some here and in the media (2016 they told us to trade all our good middle aged players for draft picks coz we wouldnt win a flag with that lot).
We already have a very early draft pick, a whole stack of later picks that can be traded into earlier picks. Realistically you would probably only have 5- 6 kids taken in the draft. I think baker is likely gone. We will likely end up with a late first / early second round pick for him.
Dusty is a free agent so we aren't getting a first round pick for him even if he did leave. Think its more likely he retires.
The value thing we could and should be doing is acquiring talent not currently getting a game on other lists via player for player trades with some of our fringe talent. Would another club like to get a look at a Sonsie for example who i have my doubts over? Grigg for Collins caused melts galore here when it happened (Lenny Hayes mark 2 according to some) but there is value to be found in filling holes on the list with some moneyball type players as well as using the draft.
Hopefully Hartley, Livingstone, Toce etc have a more sensible and less doomsday approach than some here and in the media (2016 they told us to trade all our good middle aged players for draft picks coz we wouldnt win a flag with that lot).
Bolton is staying
Dusty will retire 80% chance my guess
Baker 90% chance to go we would get a first round 10-20 pick. Not sure where WC gets that type of pick. Freo might play trading two of their picks in the 10-20 range for WC pick 3 or for WC 2025 round pick. Say WC give us pick 13
Rioli is the interesting one. Sellers market here. If he wants out then it is 2 first rounds and I am looking at Suns first two picks currently 7 and 8. This is where we would need to be ruthless. Maybe give back a second round
We then have the mulitude of lower picks to trade for say Brisbane's first round currently pick 12
So agree with King we would have 1, 7, 8, 12, 13 and our first round pick of round 2
List changing hand of draft picks and what we need to do.
With Tasmania coming into play in a few years we then use the 2015 to draft for needs and maybe bring our future first round into that year
Then fill gaps with free agents 2026 - 2028
Dusty will retire 80% chance my guess
Baker 90% chance to go we would get a first round 10-20 pick. Not sure where WC gets that type of pick. Freo might play trading two of their picks in the 10-20 range for WC pick 3 or for WC 2025 round pick. Say WC give us pick 13
Rioli is the interesting one. Sellers market here. If he wants out then it is 2 first rounds and I am looking at Suns first two picks currently 7 and 8. This is where we would need to be ruthless. Maybe give back a second round
We then have the mulitude of lower picks to trade for say Brisbane's first round currently pick 12
So agree with King we would have 1, 7, 8, 12, 13 and our first round pick of round 2
List changing hand of draft picks and what we need to do.
With Tasmania coming into play in a few years we then use the 2015 to draft for needs and maybe bring our future first round into that year
Then fill gaps with free agents 2026 - 2028
I'd love to play alongside Rioli. Of the three in question he's the one I'd least enjoy seeing in other colours.
posting Eric but I don't think the list is in any way comparable with 2016
we don't have Rance, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Martin yet.
maybe Godcus but you get my point. we need to trawl this draft and find the mids everyone is talking about.
I thought there's 4?
Danny is the most tradeable for me, on the proviso he initiated it.
his badge saved my life at the 17 flag,
but if you got a top 5 pick for a 28yo HBF'er,
I take it. provided its in relative isolation and not part of a crazy Clarko forcible list abortion
lynch, short, pickett, vlastuin, broad, taranto and hopper is a pretty good remaining core IMO
if GC or anyone else splurted a high pick for Martin the AFL should intervene with a tranq gun and a tarp
Agree but the alarmist sentiment was wrong then as it is now.
We need every mid 20s player we can get to see us through the rebuild. I think Baker is gone unfortunately as much as id love to keep him but that makes it even more paramount we dont trade Bolton or Rioli.
Get an injection of talent. Develop it right (this is where i think we have fallen right off the cliff since the COVID years) and improve our strength and conditioning and we will bounce back far quicker than Damo, Lloyd and Cornes would have you believe
I know having robust discussions is all part of PRE, and we all enjoy it, but its pretty clear to me that Blair is all over it, which is the main thing. Bakes will be the big chip, Rioli might be another, then I reckon Blair will earn his dough trading some small to medium chips and, Shorty would be a good one, and bundling for good upgrades.
If or situation was worse, we'd say traded our second this year already, and all our players were contracted and nobody wanted any of them, fine, fire and brimstone would be perfectly valid response. But 24 Draft wise we're looking solid, and will build on that base.
If or situation was worse, we'd say traded our second this year already, and all our players were contracted and nobody wanted any of them, fine, fire and brimstone would be perfectly valid response. But 24 Draft wise we're looking solid, and will build on that base.
Baker's the only one likely to go, and because he's out of contract, we won't get anything like we think we will for him. If we're very lucky it will be a late first rounder, but more likely to be an early second. The others are guys we can't wait to get rid of; Graham, Short. They're not worth much, and we won't get much for them. Take the high pick we've earned and do what we can with it. All these other picks that we might get are Hardwick's magical beans. You're not going to get 5 gun players out of the one draft. If you look at our early picks who went on to be stars, they didn't come out of the one draft. It wad done over a period of time and it included some very clever trading. It will take a few years kicking around the bottom rungs of the ladder to properly build it back up. By then Yze should have also built the side he wants to play his game plan. We also have to sort out the off field, and it took Hardwick a fair while and the inclusion of Balme to cut the dead wood to do that.
