While we're winning premierships and therefore getting later draft choices it makes strategic sense to choose players who slip due to immaturity. Because we have time.
Typically talls and rucks take longer to develop and so it is likely that they will provide the greatest opportunity for improved value.
And we've seen in the Clarke period many talls and rucks drafted. We've seen the focus. And as we saw from the outset of this period we've been very busy in drafting youth ahead of topping up with experienced players.
We've thrown everything we have at the National Draft. So far. Strategically. And wisely IMO.
All of this is immaculate percentage play.
The challenge then is to pick the right youth.
Talls drafted since we started our flag run: Balta, CJ, Miller, Biggie, Ryan. Chol re-rookied once or twice in this time as well. Not bad. But we could still do with a future FF and CHB.
Miller still can't get a game and almost every time you watch him you see why. But he's on the list for at least eight more weeks. We should probably have a look.
Biggie has the makings of an intercept defender. More gym required but a keeper for now.
CJ and Ryan have similar profiles. CJ easily ahead but has three more years in a professional environment. He was also an All-Australian junior and state captain, whereas Ryan was overlooked for two years. CJ gets the ball more and is a stronger mark; Ryan is 206cm (CJ 200) and a better athlete and kick. Ryan has a contract for next year - neither CJ nor Chol does. Everyone expects at least one of CJ or Chol to be elsewhere next year - we can't afford for it to be both.
So, what do we do? Given the reported interest in both CJ and Chol, I doubt both will stick around. We can't play them all and I'd say Nankdo is still our #1 ruck combo option. We might not have a choice in this. Chol can go wherever he wants as a free agent and CJ might have big money offers from more than one club. Either would probably stay if they were confident of getting a game, but how can they be?
We desperately need to recruit our next-gen midfield. Having six picks in the first three rounds, with possibly a top-10, another first-rounder and potentially two more picks around the 25 mark is great currency. Let's base it on the current ladder and say we have 10, 14, 26, 28, 41, 46.
There's been talk of trying to get the Dogs' first by trading them our two seconds to give them extra points for a Darcy bid. But he's going to get bid on in the first five, so they'll need their first then some to match. We could instead offer say 28 and 41 for their first next year. If a Darcy bid comes at #1 we could throw in 46 as well. I like this play, not sure the Dogs would, but we're blue-skying here so I'm gonna go with it.
So now we have 10, 14, 26, 46 and the Dog's 2022 first.
Cerra. If we get him he'll come in as a 22-year-old able to immediately improve our midfield. Freo will ask for both our firsts and Blair will rightly laugh and point out that it only cost one first to get the far superior Dion Prestia and we got a significant second-round upgrade into the bargain. So, they'll want our first pick, we'll want to give them our second. Horse-trading will happen. If we want him, we'll get him, is my feel. I think we want him. And he wants us, because he's as big a Tiger fan as us PREnders.
If we have pick 10 maybe we give it for Cerra and that's that. If we have pick 7, who knows. You'd have to know the kids better than I do. Let's say we give up pick 10.
So, what to do with those talls? GC have pick 5 currently and have said it's on the table for an experienced key forward - could we nab it for CJ? We'd probably have to sweeten the deal unless he comes back and kicks arse in which case we'd want to keep him. I just don't know if he works in the same forward line as Lynch, and I'm not sure he'll ever be a #1 forward or a #1 ruck. McEvoy ceiling IMO.
Let's say we get pick 5 because we're being optimistic here. So we lose CJ, gain Cerra, and go to the draft with 5, 14, 26. Best mid with 5, maybe a key forward at 14, and either another mid or a key back at 26.
And we have two first-rounders in 2022.
How we lookin?