KnightersRevenge said:
Know one is saying they "know". But it is likely. How much pressure do you think would come on the government if a super expensive postal survey was conducted and they then did nothing with the result?
They'd look like wasteful fools I suppose. That doesn't mean they can necessarily get a change through with so many people voting on different criteria. It might be likely but politicians are good at mind games and things don't always go to plan. Too many unknowns for me to be confident of an outcome.
SSM: I've sent back my same-sex marriage survey form. Now what?
By Michael Collett
Updated about 2 hours ago
The survey isn't binding in any way, so there'd still need to be a vote in Parliament
If you've sent back your same-sex marriage form, you may be wondering what happens next.
This type of plebiscite (sorry, survey) hasn't been done in Australia before, so read on to find out exactly how it will work.
First, the obvious — the ABS will count the results
That's because it's the Australian Bureau of Statistics, not the Australian Electoral Commission, that's conducting this survey.
The ABS says it has a "survey assurance process" which will involve external observers — basically, individuals who will oversee part of the count.
The organisation says there will also be an independent auditor to monitor the sending out and receiving back of survey forms.
Then, we'll get the results at 11:30am on November 15
There'll be separate tallies of the yes and no responses, and we'll also be told how many returned forms had responses that weren't clear.
If you're signed up for our breaking news alerts on the ABC app for iTunes and Android, or ABC News on Messenger, we'll be letting you know the outcome as soon as we find out.
The ABS will also determine the participation rate by age and gender nationally, as well as for each individual Commonwealth Electoral Division and state or territory.
However, the survey responses themselves are anonymous, so the ABS won't be able to tell us how Australians voted by age and gender.
Along with the results, the ABS will publish a statement on the quality and integrity of the survey.
It won't matter how many people actually vote
It's completely voluntary, so you wouldn't expect as many people to take part as you would for an election or census.
But ultimately, it doesn't matter if the turnout is low. The only thing that the Turnbull Government has said it will be looking at is the result.
If No gets more votes, it's over... for now
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull says his Government won't facilitate a vote in Parliament if this is the outcome. A vote could technically still get off the ground in this term of Parliament without the Government's support, but it's unlikely.
However, Labor says if it wins the next election, same-sex marriage will be legalised within 100 days of it taking government.
The next federal election is due in either 2018 or 2019.
If Yes get more votes, there'll be a vote in Parliament before the end of the year
And that will be the case even if the Yes side only gets one extra vote than No, as the Prime Minister made clear in this exchange on KIIS FM:
Dave Hughes: "So we're talking about 50.000001 per cent, aren't we?"
Mr Turnbull: "That's democracy, that's democracy."
However, it's not yet certain how all politicians would vote
The survey isn't binding in any way, so politicians wouldn't be beholden to vote in accordance with the results.
Instead, both the Coalition and Labor would allow their representatives to make their up their own minds.
Some MPs have indicated they would vote in line with the national result, others have said they would vote in line with their electorates, but others have said they would simply vote for what they personally believe.
Nevertheless, as things stand, there are enough supporters of same-sex marriage in Parliament to change the law if there's a vote.
Also, we don't yet know exactly what Parliament would be voting on
We know they'll be voting on a private member's bill which would allow same-sex couples to marry. And we know Mr Turnbull says there'll also be strong protections for religious freedoms.
But that's about it.
Liberal senator Dean Smith and a number of backbenchers have prepared a private member's bill which would protect wedding celebrants from having to marry same-sex couples if this goes against their religion.
But again, there's been no confirmation this is the bill Parliament will be voting on.
Former prime minister John Howard said the Government needed to spell out what other protections there would be for parental rights, freedom of speech and freedom of religion.
But Treasurer Scott Morrison — who is also opposed to change — said these details only need to be sorted out if the Yes side wins.
Though he also added: "If it were to return a yes then it would be absolutely necessary to ensure that religious freedoms were protected."
For his part, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said Labor would not support a bill "which impinges on religious freedom in this country".