Global Warming | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Global Warming

Merveille said:
'Australia has traditionally been a land of drought and flooding rains. What we'd want to avoid is even more drought and flooding rains'..

From the sublime to the ridiculous.. taking on mother nature are we..? Do you have any idea of the prevalence of flooding rains and droughts in Australia pre records i.e the other 99.99999% of the time....?? Have you ever looked at Australian rainfall charts for this century?

Further, I use quotations re 'experts' (is this my 'red herring??) - off the top of my head, people like Flannery saying it won't rain like it used to, Citires wil run out of water.
Also we have to listen to politicians Penny Wong, Bracks, Holding , even the CSIRO etc etc stating it is not going to rain like it used to, precipitation will be less...dams won't fill....- other 'experts' overseas in Europe stating children are not going to know what snow looks like etc.,...these comments are all on the record and based on what YOU are saying do not make sense. Why do I (we ) have to put up with the un-accountable b.llsh.t..?

Merveille

The best summation of the science is in the IPCC report but you flap around like a flathead out of water to find reasons to ignore it.

If we were to believe you and Bolt there are thousands of leftist apparatchicks with lighters under thermometers in monitoring stations world wide skewing the findings.

You confuse science with politics and you have faith that winning the political battle will change the science or worse the reality.

I quoted Pearman an atmospehric scientist from the CSIRO who talked about planning for climate change as early as 1988. Whether you acknowledge it or not scientists have argued for a while that there will be increased rain events in wet places and increased dry events in dry places.

Here is a response from Peraman in an ABC interview 5 years ago.

Q. What are the potential impacts on our country, Australia?

A. Well it turns out that warming has many impacts. You know growth of plants and, and the timing of seed set and activity of animals and all those sorts of things reflected by the temperature and so are human activities and so are risks for humans with low temperature and high temperature but for Australia, we are a little bit different from the rest of the world because a warmer world generally means more moisture in the atmosphere and more rainfall and for much of the world as we move forward into this century we expect more rainfall. But for those belts around the earth’s surface where the main high pressure systems are in both hemispheres, we expect those to shift slightly leading to a change of climate around those belts and we happen to fall in one of those that leads to less rainfall so we’re talking about a prognosis for Australia, much of Australia, not all of it but certainly the southern part and eastern coast which is for less rainfall. We already have a limitation on rainfall. We already see stresses in the major cities because of lack of water and we’re seeing the anticipation is that we will exacerbate that.

I quoted the above to put context into your claims about scientist making claims about it it not raining like it used to. Accordingly southern part of australia is predicted to be drier over time while wetter areas especially in La Nina cycles can expect more rain.

The Earth is a very complex organism and to predict its vagaries from time to time is difficult. However paterns of severe climate events can be observed and although you missed my point in a land of droughts and flooding rains it would appear that a flippant and glib approach to climate change is both foolish and unproductive.
 
jb03 said:
So looking at Melbourne in recent times he was wrong.

By recent times do you mean the ten year drought or the last 12 months of better rain?

BTW Thompson Dam which provides 60% of Melbourne's storage capacity is presently at 36.7% capacity.

Wivenhoe dam about 190% capacity.
 
lamb22 said:
Merveille

The best summation of the science is in the IPCC report but you flap around like a flathead out of water to find reasons to ignore it.

If we were to believe you and Bolt there are thousands of leftist apparatchicks with lighters under thermometers in monitoring stations world wide skewing the findings.

You confuse science with politics and you have faith that winning the political battle will change the science or worse the reality.

I quoted Pearman an atmospehric scientist from the CSIRO who talked about planning for climate change as early as 1988. Whether you acknowledge it or not scientists have argued for a while that there will be increased rain events in wet places and increased dry events in dry places.

Here is a response from Peraman in an ABC interview 5 years ago.

Q. What are the potential impacts on our country, Australia?

A. Well it turns out that warming has many impacts. You know growth of plants and, and the timing of seed set and activity of animals and all those sorts of things reflected by the temperature and so are human activities and so are risks for humans with low temperature and high temperature but for Australia, we are a little bit different from the rest of the world because a warmer world generally means more moisture in the atmosphere and more rainfall and for much of the world as we move forward into this century we expect more rainfall. But for those belts around the earth’s surface where the main high pressure systems are in both hemispheres, we expect those to shift slightly leading to a change of climate around those belts and we happen to fall in one of those that leads to less rainfall so we’re talking about a prognosis for Australia, much of Australia, not all of it but certainly the southern part and eastern coast which is for less rainfall. We already have a limitation on rainfall. We already see stresses in the major cities because of lack of water and we’re seeing the anticipation is that we will exacerbate that.

I quoted the above to put context into your claims about scientist making claims about it it not raining like it used to. Accordingly southern part of australia is predicted to be drier over time while wetter areas especially in La Nina cycles can expect more rain.

The Earth is a very complex organism and to predict its vagaries from time to time is difficult. However paterns of severe climate events can be observed and although you missed my point in a land of droughts and flooding rains it would appear that a flippant and glib approach to climate change is both foolish and unproductive.

'You confuse science with politics and you have faith that winning the political battle will change the science or worse the reality.'

Spoken with the true arrogance of a real believer. You are the one with the 'faith'. Don't presume to tell me what i am confused about and what i have faith in.
You provide a discussion with Pearman from 5 years ago. I could provide tens, hundreds of similar conversations, reports, papers and opinions to contradict that view. The debate is alive and well Robert. Patterns of severe weather events can be observed - really, how far back? Floods in Brazil in 3000 BC, accurately?

I have never stated that no scientists have said there will be more rainfall - overall the commentary has a stab at all possible outcomes so they will be right some of the time. And i am not going to start on the IPCC, I don't have the energy.
I don't think you got my point re having to listen to the ill-informed political b'sh.t. . or maybe you conceded that, i am not sure..

This has been done to death on here, and I am not going to get into a lengthy written debate with you, there is absolutely no future in it.

You enjoy your faith, come back in 20 years time and we will see how things are going.
 
Merveille said:
'You confuse science with politics and you have faith that winning the political battle will change the science or worse the reality.'

Spoken with the true arrogance of a real believer. You are the one with the 'faith'. Don't presume to tell me what i am confused about and what i have faith in.
You provide a discussion with Pearman from 5 years ago. I could provide tens, hundreds of similar conversations, reports, papers and opinions to contradict that view. The debate is alive and well Robert. Patterns of severe weather events can be observed - really, how far back? Floods in Brazil in 3000 BC, accurately?

I have never stated that no scientists have said there will be more rainfall - overall the commentary has a stab at all possible outcomes so they will be right some of the time. And i am not going to start on the IPCC, I don't have the energy.
I don't think you got my point re having to listen to the ill-informed political b'sh.t. . or maybe you conceded that, i am not sure..

This has been done to death on here, and I am not going to get into a lengthy written debate with you, there is absolutely no future in it.

You enjoy your faith, come back in 20 years time and we will see how things are going.

I referred to Pearman and to his 1988 paper to directly answer your blatherings about how "climate change" discussions are a new tangent suddenly sprung on poor little diddums like yourself.

As a matter of fact you are clearly 100% wrong on that issue and all your bluster and squirming wont change it.

The science is summarised in the IPCC report which represents an almost unanimous view of respectable scientists on this issue. There is no multitide of views as you seem to suggest. The science is more or less settled

If you've got your tin foil hat and chose to ignore the science and get your information form Plimer, Lord Monckton (not a lord or a scientist) or Bolt, good luck to you.

If we are to catch up in 20 years time make sure you dont holiday in the Maldives.
 
Ok, I'm getting it now. Due to man-made climate change global warming, dry places will get drier (or stay dry?), and wetter places will get wetter (or stay wet?).
I wonder if these dry places were ever wet places? If so, why did they then change from wet to dry, before man started churning out co2? Mmm, must have been Gaia. No, a dry place has always been a dry place, and vice versa, because if it wasn't for man, nothing would change.

Check out these droughts, omg..

Droughts in the 19th century

1803 Drought in NSW that produced severe crop failures.
1809 Beginning of an unusually severe drought in NSW that continued until 1811.
1813-15 Severe drought in NSW that prompted searches for new pastures.
1826-29 Severe drought in NSW that caused Lake George to dry up and the Darling River to cease flowing.[4]
Since 1860, when adequate meteorological recording commenced, the most severe droughts have occurred commonly at intervals of 11 to 14 years. Major droughts that were recorded later in the 19th century include:

1829 Major drought in Western Australia with very little water available.[5]
1835 and 1838 Sydney and NSW receive 25% less rain than usual. Severe drought in Northam and York areas of Western Australia.
1838-39 Droughts in South Australia and Western Australia
1839 Severe drought in the west and north of Spencer Gulf, South Australia.
1846 Severe drought converted the interior and far north of South Australia into an arid desert.
1849 Sydney received about 27 inches less rain than normal.
1850 Severe drought, with big losses of livestock across inland New South Wales (NSW) and around the western rivers region.
1864 - 66 (and 1868).
The little data available indicates that this drought period was rather severe in Victoria, South Australia, New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.

1877 All States affected by severe drought, with disastrous losses in Queensland. In Western Australia many native trees died, swamps dried up and crops failed.
1880 to 1886 Drought in Victoria (northern areas and Gippsland); New South Wales (mainly northern wheat belt, Northern Tablelands and south coast); Queensland (1881–86, in south-east with breaks - otherwise mainly in coastal areas, the central highlands and central interior in 1883-86); and South Australia (1884–86, mainly in agricultural areas).
1888 Extremely dry in Victoria (northern areas and Gippsland); Tasmania (1887-89 in the south); New South Wales had the driest year since records began; Queensland (1888–89) had a very severe drought, with much native scrub dying and native animals perishing; South Australia had one of its most severe droughts; and Western Australia (central agricultural areas) lost many sheep.[6]
Drought in the 20th centuryDuring the severe, Australia wide, 1902 Federation Drought the total sheep population dropped to fewer than 54,000,000 from a total of 106,000,000 sheep in 1891 and cattle numbers fell by more than 40 per cent. It was 1925 before the sheep numbers reached the hundred-million mark again.

At the time of Federation, Australia suffered a major drought. There had been a number of years of below average rainfall across most of Australia before the drought. During the drought the wheat crop was "all but lost" and the Darling River was dry at Bourke, New South Wales for over a year from April 1902 to May 1903. There was concern about Sydney's water supply.[7] In the 1911-1915 period, Australia suffered a major drought which resulted in the failure of the 1914 wheat crop.[8]

During 1918 to 1920 a severe drought was experienced by Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia, Northern Territory (Darwin-Daly Waters area and central Australia), Western Australia (Fortescue area), Victoria, and Tasmania.

During World War II, eastern Australia suffered dry conditions which lasted from 1937 through to 1947 with little respite.[9
And on, and on, and on...
 
Merveille

I see you hav been practising your cut and paste skills.

Try this

http://ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch11.html

4th Assessment report of the IPCC re Australia and NZ. Read 11.1 in relation to the third assssment report in 2001 which talks about both lack of water issues in the south and flooding in the north.

Also read 11.7 which specifically point out the dangers to built infrastructure in south east queensland because of increased flooding risks.

Better still read the whole report

http://ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

Dont bother replying to me until you have or otherwise demonstrate a basic understanding of the issues.

Tin foil hat excuses for not reading the report will not be accepted.

PS

The above relates to the works of working group 2. The link below links to work by Working Group 1 in relation to the science and WG 3 in relation to mitigation strategies for the future.

http://ipcc.ch/#
 
the global warming debate is an oportunity to watch how religion's garnered such a stranglehold and how the hitler youth brainwashed a generation.
1st it was global warming, then climate change so they could explain all away ,funny how it mirrors religion so much,
all genuflect to the high priest gore .
 
ssstone said:
the global warming debate is an oportunity to watch how religion's garnered such a stranglehold and how the hitler youth brainwashed a generation.
1st it was global warming, then climate change so they could explain all away ,funny how it mirrors religion so much,
all genuflect to the high priest gore .

Actually the change in term from "global warming" to "climate change" was engineered apparently by Karl Rove or one of the others under George W. The theory was global warming sounded imposed and bad, while climate change is just "a change", and therefore natural (implying no need to do anything serious about it).
 
Tiger74 said:
Actually the change in term from "global warming" to "climate change" was engineered apparently by Karl Rove or one of the others under George W. The theory was global warming sounded imposed and bad, while climate change is just "a change", and therefore natural (implying no need to do anything serious about it).

Not sure that is right but you could also suggest that global warming was preceeded by the term "greenhouse effect" and I read also that some are now using the term "Global climate disruption" instead of climate change
 
Bob Brown's political opportunism didn't do the cause many favours this week.

It feels to me like public opinion is slowly turning against the AGW crew.
 
It is a self-inflicted punishment - no good was ever going to come of scientists getting into bed with anti-science greens. It is a shame, because there is no doubt that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will influence natural climate change. Massive own-goal.
 
One of 1000's that were wrong again.. accountability.....pfft

It’s not drought, it’s climate change, say scientists Melissa Fyfe

August 30, 2009

SCIENTISTS studying Victoria’s crippling drought have, for the first time, proved the link between rising levels of greenhouse gases and the state’s dramatic decline in rainfall.

A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed what many scientists long suspected: that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change....

‘’It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,’’ said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.

‘’In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.’’
 
I am so over hypocrites, or ECOcrites;

House #1 A 20 room mansion (not including 8 bathrooms) heated by natural gas. Add on a pool (and a pool house) and a separate guest house, all heated by gas. In one month this residence consumes more energy than ! the ave rage American household does in a year. The average bill for electricity and natural gas runs over $2400. In natural gas alone, this property consumes more than 20 times the national average for an American home. This house is not situated in a Northern or Midwestern "snow belt" area. It's in the South.

House #2 Designed by an architecture professor at a leading national university. This house incorporates every "green" feature current home construction can provide. The house is 4,000 square feet (4 bedrooms) and is nestled on a high prairie in the American southwest. A central closet in the house holds ; geothermal heat-pumps drawing ground water through pipes sunk 300 feet into the ground. The water (usually 67 degrees F.) heats the house in the winter and cools it in the summer! The system uses no fossil fuels such as oil or natural gas and it consumes one-quarter electricity required for a conventional heating/cooling system. Rainwater from the roof is collected and funneled into a 25,000 gallon underground cistern. Wastewater from showers, sinks and toilets goes into underground purifying tanks and then into the cistern. The collected water then irrigates the land surrounding the house. Surrounding flowers and shrubs native to the area enable the property to blend into the surrounding rural landscape.

HOUSE #1 is outside of Nashville , Tennessee ; it is the abode of the "environmentalist" Al Gore;

HOUSE #2 is on a ranch near Crawford, Texas ; it is the residence the of the former President of the United States , George W. Bush.
 
“The Weather Isn’t Getting Weirder
Thursday, February 10th, 2011 Anne Jolis, The Wall Street Journal”

The gist -

“But is it true? To answer that question, you need to understand whether recent weather trends are extreme by historical standards. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project is the latest attempt to find out, using super-computers to generate a dataset of global atmospheric circulation from 1871 to the present.

As it happens, the project’s initial findings, published last month, show no evidence of an intensifying weather trend. “In the climate models, the extremes get more extreme as we move into a doubled CO2 world in 100 years,” atmospheric scientist Gilbert Compo, one of the researchers on the project, tells me from his office at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “So we were surprised that none of the three major indices of climate variability that we used show a trend of increased circulation going back to 1871.”

In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict. “There’s no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has affected extreme weather,” adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of Colorado climate researcher.”
 
This will cheer you up, Merveille. ;D

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3135833.htm

Former Australian of the Year Tim Flannery has been appointed to the newly-formed position of Australia's Climate Commissioner.
 
evo said:
This will cheer you up, Merveille. ;D

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3135833.htm

Former Australian of the Year Tim Flannery has been appointed to the newly-formed position of Australia's Climate Commissioner.
$180,000 a year job too. Not too shabby is big green.