Game Day- Round 1 , 2016 - Richmond V Carlton | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Game Day- Round 1 , 2016 - Richmond V Carlton

Rucks were interesting. Hammer seemed to get to the ball better than Griff but Carlton roved Hammer better than we did. We roved Griff better. That was my take. Hammer could be okay if we get better at roving him or he gels better with his midfield. Hard for him to look good when Cotch is having a mare too.

Hairy McGingerbeard took a half to find his flow, great to see him take a couple of marks out in front in the second half. A confident Ty is problem for our opposition.

Townsend does exactly what it says on the tin. Goes in hard, a bulldozer type. Love it but hope he has more strings to his bow and enough pace to damage on the outside too.

Rioli gifted a game, isn't ready yet. Sheds is his benchmark. Has always tackled better than his size suggests. Hope we don't see too much of him too soon. Could be clever coaching to get him up too speed against (what should be) soft opposition.

Astbury was rusty but effective. A steady improvement over the next few weeks as he gets back to full match pace and he'll spell then end of Batch/Chappy.

Rance, Martin, Vlas, Jack all look good. BEllis needs to take up meditation or Raiki anything to calm his mind under pressure. Works hard and runs all day but makes bad decisions when pressured in the D50. Has ever been thus. Time to get that sorted Dimma.

I've a massive soft spot for the Griffinator. Great to see him out their and looking confident and I may say resplendent in his headgear. Still good hands. Still doesn't get the right spots to be more dangerous when the ball moves less efficiently into the forward line. A useful second ruck, who always gives you a second third effort and has quick hands for a big bloke.

Great to see the younger brigade looking undazzled by the spectacle. CEllis, Lambert, Menadue are the future and it looks bright.

Good teams don't drop the games you expect them to win. When we stop losing to the Carltons, Melbournes, Suns etc. We'll be true contenders.

Roll on 2016. Carna TIIIIIIGES!
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
North on the other hand is fielding the third-oldest Round 1 team in history tomorrow. They'll have to set all sorts of records to make it work for a full season. Reckon Scott might struggle to see the year out.

That is a big call. I thought you were a fan when teams were older?
 
jb03 said:
That is a big call. I thought you were a fan when teams were older?

There's a ceiling to it, otherwise we'd bring Richo back!

This table isn't as useful as one one of age differences between two opponents, but it'll illustrate what I mean.

'Age' column is rounded down, e.g. 24.99 = 24yo.

Age P W L D Win%
--------------------------------
20yo 6 0 6 0 0.0
21yo 311 91 216 4 29.9
22yo 2264 909 1328 27 40.7
23yo 7085 3230 3795 60 46.0
24yo 10106 4896 5096 114 49.0
25yo 7103 3957 3078 68 56.2
26yo 2373 1366 974 33 58.3
27yo 313 177 134 2 56.9
28yo 11 6 5 0 54.5
--------------------------------
Total 29572 14632 14632 308 50.0


This is a gross simplification but ignoring competition balance and the intracies peculiar to every team, and that some teams go off the "cliff" earlier than others, it's apparent that teams do not actually start "winning" until 25, peak at 26 and start to decline at 27.

Older teams are fine when they're winning, as they theoretically should when they have an age/experience advantage. But once they start to falter, younger players must be introduced which nearly always results in a fall down the ladder. These players are nearly always inexperienced at senior level due to lack of prior opportunity.

North's team today is aged 27.80. Yes they have Harvey and ignoring the fact he's still one of their better players, if you take him out it falls to 27.33 (still ancient). They've adopted a strategy that defies conventional wisdom in seeking out older players to complement their already old team (Farren Ray, rookied this year, turned 30 on Wednesday. Waite 33, Dal Santo 32, Gibson 29, Nahas 28, Higgins 28 are other recent additions.)

North sent out distress signals last year. L-W-L-W-L-W-W-L-L-W-L-W-L is not the consistency you expect to see from a veteran team. This sequence culminated in a disgraceful loss to struggling Gold Coast by 55 points in Round 14, nearly four years their junior. The draw opened up, they pulled it together in time to reel off seven straight wins and found themselves in a position to rest players in Round 23 before a credible finals performance. However I think it will prove to be an ageing team's last hurrah. North are a good team, but not good enough to go where no team has before.

The two older round one teams were Fitzroy (coming off their last flag) and South Melbourne at the end of WW2. It was a full 50 years before either played in a GF again.

All of this needs to be kept in perspective. You'd never pick player A because he's 26 and player B is 22, but you might pick him because of the experience or strength needed to play on his intended opponent, or stamina to run out four quarters strongly. Team age merely helps to describe what's happening - if used alone to dictate team selection or even recruiting in the short term, I'm pretty sure it'd result in disaster.
 
Can any analyst our there tell me the average games played and average age of the two teams that were fielded out there on Thursday night?
 
clown said:
Can any analyst our there tell me the average games played and average age of the two teams that were fielded out there on Thursday night?

AvAge AvGm
---------------
Ri 24.40 72.7
Ca 25.56 83.5


Other games:

AvAge AvGm
---------------
Me 24.05 61.8
GWS 24.35 81.8

GC 24.59 81.3
Es 26.05 93.4

NM 27.80 149.6
Ad 25.07 95.5

Sy 24.45 79.7
Co 24.36 80.1

WB 24.60 80.5
Fr 27.01 115.4

PA 25.41 98.3
St 25.26 93.5

WC 25.76 105.4
Br 23.90 67.0

Ge 25.97 113.9 (updated after 22 finalised)
Ha 26.78 126.1 (updated after 22 finalised)
 
So the team we fielded this week is the 5th youngest and the 3rd least experienced in games played in the league.

There have been a few banging on about this team going through a transition and perhaps tempering short term expectations. My view is that there a few others who are long term prospects to come in yet in Lennon, Castagna, Drummond and Markov.

I think it is exciting but I am also not sure what to expect this year.
 
Sintiger said:
So the team we fielded this week is the 5th youngest and the 3rd least experienced in games played in the league.

There have been a few banging on about this team going through a transition and perhaps tempering short term expectations. My view is that there a few others who are long term prospects to come in yet in Lennon, Castagna, Drummond and Markov.

I think it is exciting but I am also not sure what to expect this year.

Ideally we're adding Deledio, Maric, Yarran and Grigg ahead of those. Maybe Batchelor who was 11th in the b&f. But it's good to have younger players keeping the seniors on their toes.

Does 19yo Castagna step up with 12 last-quarter possessions like 24yo Lambert? Or 20yo Lennon bob up with crunch goals like 26yo Lloyd? Maybe. But less likely.

It's a fine line between pushing for top four and being back in the pack. Easy to see why Hardwick was getting antsy at the NAB game.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Ideally we're adding Deledio, Maric, Yarran and Grigg ahead of those. Maybe Batchelor who was 11th in the b&f. But it's good to have younger players keeping the seniors on their toes.

Does 19yo Castagna step up with 12 last-quarter possessions like 24yo Lambert? Or 20yo Lennon bob up with crunch goals like 26yo Lloyd? Maybe. But less likely.

It's a fine line between pushing for top four and being back in the pack. Easy to see why Hardwick was getting antsy at the NAB game.
Yes but the point is whether we are better off taking the risk with the 20 year old Lennon or the 19 year old castagna for the long term and that is the decision we will have to make this year. I also think Castagna is the Morris replacement from the Thursday night team not for Lambert.
My own personal view is that if we are to be a premiership team those youngsters will be in it, the only question is how and when to introduce them. Doing it fast will probably hurt us this year and are we ( supporters included) willing for that to happen?
Not sure.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
AvAge AvGm
---------------
Ri 24.40 72.7
Ca 25.56 83.5


Other games:

AvAge AvGm
---------------
Me 24.05 61.8
GWS 24.35 81.8

GC 24.59 81.3
Es 26.05 93.4

NM 27.80 149.6
Ad 25.07 95.5

Sy 24.45 79.7
Co 24.36 80.1

WB 24.60 80.5
Fr 27.01 115.4

PA 25.41 98.3
St 25.26 93.5

WC 25.76 105.4
Br 23.90 67.0

Ge 25.83 102.3 (squad)
Ha 26.02 115.8 (squad)
But old experienced teams win grand finals - all those stories about the Hawks last year
(Until a younger less experienced team does)
The outliers are North, Freo and Hawks and the Hawks are freshening up their team a bit
N and F will likely have too many injuries over the year to capitalise on the age/ experience of their lists
Kids give a team renewed energy and keep old blokes on their toes, and rapidly develop with the coaching intensity that AFL clubs provide to their best 22 each week, just can't be matched even by aligned VFL teams
 
tigersnake said:
What is north's average games when you take out Harvey L2?
Just drop off twenty games per player to take care of Boomers 400. brings the average down to 129 or near enough for fudging through.
 
TigerMasochist said:
Just drop off twenty games per player to take care of Boomers 400. brings the average down to 129 or near enough for fudging through.

reckon you're thereabouts, still very high
 
billyb#40 said:
But old experienced teams win grand finals - all those stories about the Hawks last year
(Until a younger less experienced team does)
The outliers are North, Freo and Hawks and the Hawks are freshening up their team a bit
N and F will likely have too many injuries over the year to capitalise on the age/ experience of their lists
Kids give a team renewed energy and keep old blokes on their toes, and rapidly develop with the coaching intensity that AFL clubs provide to their best 22 each week, just can't be matched even by aligned VFL teams
cheers mate
 
Was an interesting game.

I don't think we were going full tilt TBH.

That, along with selection favoring youth, hopefully points to an improved performance against Collingwood.

You sense we have set ourselves for that game.

If you look closely at the Carlton game, we upped our intensity every time they challenged. I never felt we lost control even though we were fumbly and static.

No panic stations at all IMO.
 
One of our former goal sneaks (Betts, Garlett or Menzel) would have been handy to have on Thursday night.

Will go as far to say that Casboult is probably the worst shot on goal in the competition. And it's easily fixable...he just needs to guide the ball down onto his boot. That's what was so frustrating about him missing some gimme set shots. His current technique isn't going to net him many goals...or dare I say it, longevity in an AFL career (but I suppose just look at Shaun Hampson, ey? Still on an AFL list after all these years...).


Also glad that even through the latter Malthouse years of rubbish performances, gutting a team and finishing bottom, we still haven't worn a belting at the hands of Richmond in a long time (45 points in round 20, 2006, 85 points in round 7 of 2005 are the last beltings I can think of). Five goals is about the maximum margin we've lost to the Tigers. A relief given all the beltings we've handed the Tigers over recent years (83 points in round 1, 2009, 56 points, round 1 2010, 89 points, round 20, 2010, 103 points, round 15, 2011, 44 points, round 1, 2012...).
 
BluesBloke said:
Will go as far to say that Casboult is probably the worst shot on goal in the competition. And it's easily fixable...he just needs to guide the ball down onto his boot. That's what was so frustrating about him missing some gimme set shots. His current technique isn't going to net him many goals...or dare I say it, longevity in an AFL career (but I suppose just look at Shaun Hampson, ey? Still on an AFL list after all these years...).

Handcuffing him to a 'senior player'/'seasoned drinker' (Fev ?) has unbalanced him for life.
 
He is the best contested mark in the league and the worst set shot in the league, and the worst by a decent margin.
 
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
Handcuffing him to a 'senior player'/'seasoned drinker' (Fev ?) has unbalanced him for life.
Fev was gone by that stage.

But above that, I'd have thought a lad of Casboult's size would've been able to handle his *smile* a bit better! :cutelaugh