Fires

[Rosy]

Re: Police fire SMS

Thanks Dyer. I hadn't heard about it.

 

[tigertim]

Re: Police fire SMS

Yeah Rosy, I and everyone at work got it today. I hope they aren't just "scaring the horses".

 

[Rosy]

Re: Police fire SMS

I hope they aren't just "scaring the horses".

I hope the warnings prove unwarranted. 160kph winds forcast tomorrow and grave fears the fires will jump the containment lines. The number of police, fire trucks, dse vehicles, helicoptors and ambulances in town is unbelievable. Pity they can be as prepared as humanly possible but if the weather is unfavourable there's nothing they can do to control the beast. There's been a power of backburning and grading done in preparation so fingers crossed.

 

[Dyer Disciple]

Great to see the generosity being extended, not just by Aussies.
Reported that Pink (the singer) donated $250,000 to the Bushfire Appeal.
Nicole Kidman also put in $500,000.
I'm sure its going to take every dollar raised and plenty more to enable people to rebuild their lives. Nothing will ever replace their losses of course, but its going to be so important that we give these families support, not just in the immediate future, but it must be ongoing.

One of the European soccer teams donated cash too.

 

[Rosy]

....we calculate fire risk by calculating a Fire Danger Index (FDI). Fire management have kittens when it is between 80-100. The CFA's system cannot calculate a FDI beyond 100. On Saturday in SW Vic we were calculating on DSE system FDIs of 335!

What is the FDI for tomorrow Western? I imagine it would be nowhere near as extreme as the one above considreing the temp will be high 30s rather than high 40s but the predicted wind sounds a real concern. Still they were very concerned about last Friday too but thankfully the predicted conditions didn't eventuate.

 

[Liverpool]

I hope nothing happens either.

However, if every time we have a hot day people start going on about the 'baten downt he hatches, this is the 2nd worst day since Black Saturday"....then it won't be too far down the track that people start getting complacent again and then when we DO have a real prick of a day, we end up with another disaster.

I'm just concerned that we'll end up with a 'peter cried wolf' scenario if every time we have a hot day and/or a bit of win, we keep comparing it to that bad day back in February.
People will only take notice for so long before the message wears thin...

 

[Dyer Disciple]

I hope nothing happens either.

However, if every time we have a hot day people start going on about the 'baten downt he hatches, this is the 2nd worst day since Black Saturday"....then it won't be too far down the track that people start getting complacent again and then when we DO have a real prick of a day, we end up with another disaster.

I'm just concerned that we'll end up with a 'peter cried wolf' scenario if every time we have a hot day and/or a bit of win, we keep comparing it to that bad day back in February.
People will only take notice for so long before the message wears thin...

Er you're firing blanks there Livers...

Black Saturday had awesome winds, "not a bit of wind". In the next 48 hours (with tomorrow ripe), they are talking about near 150/160 mph winds.

It's isn't the heat as much as the winds with it, and they are more than "a little bit of winds".

 

[Rosy]

So how many warnings similar to what you mention do you consider we've had Livers? Certainly up here where the danger is serious we've only had 2. Last Friday was expected to be worse than it was and tomorrow could be bad too. I don't consider that would lead to people being complacent. The warnings aren't given lightly or without good reason. It's much better to be forewarned than unprepared.

 

[Liverpool]

Er you're firing blanks there Livers...
Black Saturday had awesome winds, "not a bit of wind". In the next 48 hours (with tomorrow ripe), they are talking about near 150/160 mph winds.
It's isn't the heat as much as the winds with it, and they are more than "a little bit of winds".

Black Saturday had awesome winds....agree.
but do we have all these alerts and everything each time we have a windy day?

You just have to be careful we don't go overboard the other way until we get to a stage where alerts mean nothing and people start taking no notice of them.

Thats when we will get a arse of a day, people will ignore the alerts because they've been inundated with them every time there is a hot or windy day...and then bang! We have another disaster.

Thats what I am concerned about.

 

[Disco08]

There's windy and then there's 150k winds on a hot day. Big difference Livers.

 

[Rosy]

but do we have all these alerts and everything each time we have a windy day?

Of course we don't but we do get them when they're expected to cause problems in areas where there is high fire danger. Don't forget that the fires are still burning out of control over massive areas. The wind can quickly move them from contained bush to habitated areas. The alerts can save lives. They are given for a reason.

 

[Dyer Disciple]

Black Saturday had awesome winds....agree.
but do we have all these alerts and everything each time we have a windy day?

You just have to be careful we don't go overboard the other way until we get to a stage where alerts mean nothing and people start taking no notice of them.

That's when we will get a arse of a day, people will ignore the alerts because they've been inundated with them every time there is a hot or windy day...and then bang! We have another disaster.

That's what I am concerned about.

I understand where you're coming from but I think they have been pretty spot on so far. When they start getting it more wrong than right we should worry. They were predicting Black Saturday early, and were spot on. They even did the "shaping up to be the worst conditions ever" and look how right they were.

Last Friday EVERYONE in the weather business were saying it was going to be bad, not as bad, but very dangerous. It wasn't thankfully. Better safe than sorry.

I bet they have this one on the money, the warnings seem more serious and ominous than last Fridays.

Perversely, I have different worries about the warnings and don't think much of them (this mobile/SMS caper) but that is a different story.

As far as general bulletins and predictions go they are right to give warnings with the conditions they are talking about, it's more than calling wolf because it will be hot or a little windy.

 

[Liverpool]

Of course we don't but we do get them when they're expected to cause problems in areas where there is high fire danger. Don't forget that the fires are still burning out of control over massive areas. The wind can quickly move them from contained bush to habitated areas. The alerts can save lives. They are given for a reason.

Thats fine.

I just hope that they are given when there is a 'reason' and it doesn't just become the norm.

You want people to take notice of them but if they just start becoming the norm then people will switch off, its only natural.

Its all I am saying...I'm not arguing with anyone...just raising my concerns if we go down the track of mass warnings becoming a common occurrence because of what happened on Black Saturday.

 

[Rosy]

Yeah agree Livers.  If we get an alert every day I'd be concerned too but at this stage we've had 1 single alert so I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it just yet.  I'd happily cop over cautiousness if it helped save lives and property.  Too many people a couple of weeks ago had no warning and look at what happened.  Those not in areas at risk can easily just delete the warnings.  Those who've been under threat will take them very seriously indeed.

Thankfully the day here is shaping up ok so far.  Typical cool Autumn morning and even 2 spits of rain.  Quite overcast and a gentle breeze.  Hopefully things continue like this and the backburning that was done last night helps keep the fires within containment lines. 

 

[Rosy]

3.15pm update Livers. The warning was well founded, no wolves in sight. Gale force hot northerly winds here you can hardly stand up in. Quite scary and extreme fire risk.

 

[Angie]

Hello all.

I'm resurrecting this topic briefly. It's been nearly two years since Black Saturday and I can report that after a massive, life changing struggle, we have finally moved into our new house on the hill.

Thank you to all who helped - for your kind thoughts and support (Rosy, your gesture will never be forgotten).

Best wishes to all who continue the daily struggle with red tape (some necessary, some just plain bizarre) - take a deep breath... you will get through it.

Looking forward to more steps forward in 2011 - both on and off the field.

Go Tigers.

 

[Rosy]

Thanks for the update news Angie.

Gee it's been an amazing stuggle for so many. It seems like things are/were deliberately made difficult for people who are/were at rock bottom. Some of the stories are mind boggling.

I'm rapt to read your good news. I hope your new home is filled with love and happiness always.

 

[Rosy]

Scary, eerie morning here. The reddest sunrise I've ever seen, in fact I looked out the window and thought the farm was on fire. Really hot, strong northerly winds. The dogs are freaked out and trembling. Hope things don't pan out as bad as expected around the state and the fires stay under control. Stay safe everyone.

 

[poppa x]

Can anyone confirm what I thought I heard on the radio yesterday that 150 people have been charged with deliberately lighting fires over the past month?

 

[Rfc4Ever]

Certainly a hot topic.