Hume seems to be a problem. Reported this morning that a young bloke (20's) died at home from Covid. Hadn't even been tested.
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Are you counting days since the Vic "donut" day? it is clear this outbreak started before that. and that there were a number of cases already in the community by the time the positive test came back.
As I’ve said previously, the new Doherty Report modelling was handed to the federal government last week but hasn't been released to the public. If Andrews is ready to provide a roadmap on sunday, then he must have read it.
Any predictions on what the roadmap will be? I’m sure it’ll be something like this:
- percentages adjusted to include 12-15 year olds.
- 60% fully vaxxed: semi-essential retail to open (ie. hairdressers, beauticians, etc) with strict density limits. Travel limit moved to 25km. no home visits.
- 70% fully vaxxed: all retail to open. Hospitality to open with small caps (ie. 10-20 people per room). Travel limits scrapped. 5 visitors per household. offices to reopen at 25%.
- 80% fully vaxxed: Hospitality fully open to the 1 per 4 sqmm rule. 15 visitors per household. Masks outdoors removed. offices to reopen at 50%.
- 90% fully vaxxed: all restrictions removed.
to be fair, targeted vaccination hubs have helped a lot over the past couple of days. Wyndham, Hume and Greater Shepparton have had some pretty big increases.
Any predictions on what the roadmap will be? I’m sure it’ll be something like this:
- percentages adjusted to include 12-15 year olds.
- 60% fully vaxxed: semi-essential retail to open (ie. hairdressers, beauticians, etc) with strict density limits. Travel limit moved to 25km. no home visits.
- 70% fully vaxxed: all retail to open. Hospitality to open with small caps (ie. 10-20 people per room). Travel limits scrapped. 5 visitors per household. offices to reopen at 25%.
- 80% fully vaxxed: Hospitality fully open to the 1 per 4 sqmm rule. 15 visitors per household. Masks outdoors removed. offices to reopen at 50%.
- 90% fully vaxxed: all restrictions removed.
to be fair, targeted vaccination hubs have helped a lot over the past couple of days. Wyndham, Hume and Greater Shepparton have had some pretty big increases.
The previous Doherty modelling does not contain any sort of recommendations on easing of restrictions (or placing them either). They can't possibly model that, it would be guesswork at best.
The modelling won't state that either. It will be modelling the number of hospitalisations / deaths at each level of vaccination assuming that we are fully open.
You've used statistics well previously, why use an arbitrary figure? Pitching for a job at the Doherty Institute?
There's an opportunity cost to everything. We have some pretty good guidemaps to follow with other countries experience, I hope we use it.
You've said a lot of doofus level things in this thread, but having a go at the doherty institute is up there.
It's the dipstick politicians in Canberra who are plugging arbitrary out-of-context figures into their agendas, the Doherty just did modelling.
Accurate modelling within the parameters in which it was completed.
But it's about right that posters on a football forum think they know more about infectious disease than the southern hemisphere's foremost experts.
You make a very interesting point. When we had the doughnut day on August 4, we still had about 200 active cases.
If you disregard the doughnut day on August 4, you can mount an argument that the VIC outbreak really started on July 13. That means we are at day 63 of our outbreak.
If you compare day 63 data with NSW, this tells us that the VIC outbreak isn't moving faster than NSW at all. It's actually moving significantly slower...
- On day 63, VIC had 438 cases.
- On day 63, NSW had 671 cases.
- On day 63, VIC had 5,350 total cases during the outbreak.
- On day 63, NSW had 10,061 total cases during the outbreak.
- On day 63, VIC had 6 total deaths.
- On day 63, NSW had 61 total deaths.
- On day 63, VIC had 45 cases in ICU.
- On day 63, NSW had 82 cases in ICU.
As for vaccinations, on July 13 (day 1), VIC had administered 1,299,562 total doses. NSW had administered 631,896 total doses on June 17 (day 1). So we had a head start in this regard. NB: I'm not sure what the exact percentages are.
Posh, I found the stats by Qld regions and there is lethargy almost across the board. Gold Coast, which is where I live, has close to 700,000 population and has had as of yesterday only 174,000 vaccinations. Vaccinations have been available through GP‘s for at least 5 months. I know because I became eligible for AZ in early May. There must be a hell of a lot of 50 plus codgers like myself, and there are a crap load on the Gold Coast, wandering around unvaccinated. Pfizer for that age group has been available for a couple of months because my boss got his second dose a couple of weeks ago with a six week break between jabs. Some regional areas are trickling at hundreds in a day.
Watch them all bleat and moan about lost shekels and the death of tourism or their region when COVID finally hits hard and they get to NSW or Victorian lock down levels. I see most people wear masks and check-in when in shops but there is a young element and some older ones that are ignoring the rules and just don’t care. These are the dangerous ones. They are likely if they get sick to not get tested and to start a mass outbreak.
Could be that, and it could also be combined with a large portion of the international student population not "living" there at the moment.
Are these people still considered in the population estimates, even though they can never be included in the vaccinated rates, as they won't be vaccinated in Australia?
It was slightly tongue in cheek but love your work. I'm surprised you keep lowering yourself to this thread.
I suppose the George bashing is on hold so you've got the time.
No way they'd be counted in the ~26m, but it's in our interest to vaccinate them if they're going to be here awhile.
I agree, but would they be counted in the 150K residents of City of Melbourne? And say, if 7.5K have left, and are still counted in the estimated City of Melbourne residents, it obviously lowers the percentage of vaccinated residents.
Th
The covidbase projection I believe takes this surge into account and is forecasting 80% by the end of October, about 2-3 weeks after NSW.
This could be misleading - it looks like they’re projecting from current second dose rates. This will be a major underestimate for Vic as it lags our first dose rate by 50odd days. The rate will dramatically accelerate over the next month.
The covidbase projection I believe takes this surge into account and is forecasting 80% by the end of October, about 2-3 weeks after NSW.
Not sure if they have a checklist and mark people off after they're vaccinated. Assuming population figures come from electoral rolls and/or the census, visiting students won't be included.
Homeless people would also be excluded and obviously were the focus of a recent cluster.
Suspect the number of vaccinations dispensed vs known population is never going to line up exactly.
I would be staggered if the Doherty is not using data from elsewhere in the world in their modelling
One of the things that I find misleading is the number of cases linked to known cases and outbreaks. That number simply represents the links discovered as of when the announcement of the numbers is made. Contact tracing will eventually link the vast majority of them but it takes more than a day to do so.
