Coronavirus

[TigerMasochist]

I'm positive that if we had strong national leadership that the States would not have gone their own way but now the genie is out and the State Premiers feel empowered to do their own thing.

Dunno whether the Feds could come over the top of the States n declare some sort of National emergency to take control, other than that it would be cutting off some of the emergency funding packages n making the State Premiers cover their own arses for the rulings they apply.
Pretty sure whoever the Feds were at the time it would see them dumped in the trash at the next erection.
The whole circus has been a pathetic exercise of manipulation n grand standing from a bunch of people with the competence n moral standing of a smeared *smile* with the general population being the canvas upon which it's been spread.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

my mum was health until she got cancer, she died within a few months. not self inflicted in any way.
im not sure you are going to win an argument by suggesting that a death from cancer is any different from a death from covid.

Not trying to win anything. About 85% of heart disease deaths and a third of cancer deaths are a result of lifestyle choices. That was implied in the original post by "perhaps" and "to some degree". Apologies if you took that to mean your mum asked for it.

 

[pete and tys]

From very soon onwards....a covid death only occurs in someone who chooses not to be vaccinated.
Completely different to cancer and heart disease.

Each person by mid October will have had the chance to not die from covid by being fully vaccinated .
Very easy choice. I wish it was so easy to choose not to die of anything else.

I will despair at any covid death but it is a simple simple choice that is illogical not to take.
Cannot wait and wait for the last 10 % ...who will never vax anyway.

Sorry, but there is no option.
Open up and all those unvaccinated have to accept their choice.

There is no more we can do to protect people who will not accept common sense advice.

Remember....a covid death will be a personal choice by a person who chose foolishly.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

From very soon onwards....a covid death only occurs in someone who chooses not to be vaccinated.

If only it was so simple.

Each person by mid October will have had the chance to not die from covid by being fully vaccinated .

What we're seeing in Victoria and NSW is people refusing to wait. They are rushing the walls already. That *smile* Fitzroy teacher should be in jail.

 

[Bunnerz]

You can't have people in positions of responsibility applying their own rules. That guy has no control over how the virus will affect the kids or their families.

Plenty of comments in support under the article though. We're no smarter than any other country that's felt the full brunt.

I can tell you...parents are pleading with teachers/principals for their kids to be on site.

It is suppose to be the very vulnerable kids and kids whose parents are essential workers.
Unfortunately, many parents are saying that their kids are vulnerable and many lying that both them and hubby are working.

Very hard for schools atm.

 

[Bunnerz]

Schools in Vic a few months ago were accepting about 1 in 50 kids on site.
So 10 out of a school of 500 on site. eg.

I'd say now It's 1 in 15
So a school of 500, would have 40 on site.

Too many really!

Parents are pleading...many lying!

 

[DavidSSS]

The other issue with schools is that they haven't prioritised vaccinating teachers, which, given they work in an environment full of children who cannot get vaccinate, is simply silly. I think they are finally doing it now but teachers should have been a much earlier priority.

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I can tell you...parents are pleading with teachers/principals for their kids to be on site.

In your opinion does the willingness of teachers to get vaccinated differ either way from the norm?

 

[Bunnerz]

In your opinion does the willingness of teachers to get vaccinated differ either way from the norm?

I'd say 80% of teachers have had first jab (at an educated guess)
Vic.

 

[pete and tys]

Not trying to win anything. About 85% of heart disease deaths and a third of cancer deaths are a result of lifestyle choices. That was implied in the original post by "perhaps" and "to some degree". Apologies if you took that to mean your mum asked for it.

By the way Lee, I need to correct you regarding the causes of common cancer and heart disease.
Statistics are very misleading, often deliberately.

Heart disease.. causes are
1 High cholesterol..GENETIC ....not diet, in almost every case. Of course one has to eat something, so any diet can be blamed. Not the cause in almost all. Smoking sometimes an additional factor.
2 High blood pressure..GENETIC
3 Valve disease..AGE and STREPTOCOCCAL INFECTION
4 Electrical faults.. multi causes.

Cancer...Almost never caused by behaviour or lifestyle.
Common cancers...

Women.
1 Breast...hormonal and genetic cause.
2 Cervix...viral cause
3 Bowel..Genetic
4 Ovaries.. Hormonal

Men...
1 Prostate...Hormonal
2 Bowel..Genetic and age

Other common cancers

Pancreas..Age
Brain..Age
Lung..Multiple causes..One of many is smoking.
Skin..Genetic and UV exposure. Melanoma is not common and often not caused by UV exposure
Blood ...Genetic and age.
Bladder Age and in a few cases, smoking.
Upper gut..Age and genetic, sometimes alcohol.

The list goes on. Common cancers have strong genetic and age causes.

So you see, humans rarely contribute to cancer or heart disease.
The media and statistics can deliberately distort the facts for various purposes.
Alcohol, smoking and uv exposure, to name a few, are an additional risk in some diseases but overwhelmingly NOT the cause.

 

[pete and tys]

my mum was health until she got cancer, she died within a few months. not self inflicted in any way.
im not sure you are going to win an argument by suggesting that a death from cancer is any different from a death from covid.

You are correct 17.
Vaste majority of cancers are not self inflicted but genetic or age degeneration.
Sorry for your mum.
My father developed severe coronary disease, but never touched a cigarette or drank alcohol in his life.
Heart disease also in not predominantly lifestyle but genetics.
Various outlets deliberately distort the facts for their own agendas.

Death by covid is shocking and is more so now, as everyone can be vaccinated and no one should die from covid anymore.

 

[22nd Man]

Schools in Vic a few months ago were accepting about 1 in 50 kids on site.
So 10 out of a school of 500 on site. eg.

I'd say now It's 1 in 15
So a school of 500, would have 40 on site.

Too many really!

Parents are pleading...many lying!

If they can't / don't want to handle 40 on site then there is no chance of any school returning this year.

 

[22nd Man]

Teacher dilemma.....Older teachers were told not to work last year as being more vulnerable. Now that older teachers are more likely to be double vaxed are they being encouraged back to handle the in school classes?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

By the way Lee, I need to correct you regarding the causes of common cancer and heart disease.
Statistics are very misleading, often deliberately.
...

I don't want an argument about this. Argue with the links if you like.

Federal health officials said Thursday that the U.S. is losing ground on its efforts to combat heart disease, finding more than 80% of heart attacks and strokes in middle-aged Americans are preventable.

https://www.modernhealthcare.com/ar...heart-related-deaths-in-2016-were-preventable

Between 30 and 50% of cancers can currently be prevented by avoiding risk factors and implementing existing evidence-based prevention strategies.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cancer

But this is simply false.

no one should die from covid anymore.

 

[Ian4]

UK had 58 deaths yesterday so not sure where you get 125 a day from?

UK 7 day average deaths is 138 as of 12/9.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Israel had 45 deaths on 12/9 and have a 7 day average of 25.

By using figures like 125 you spread false impressions of what a future living with Covid will be like.

Take a look at REAL LIFE examples rather than made up ones, like the UK or Canada and then factor the population difference, you get no where near 125 deaths per day. By pushing this (and you've pushed that number before) you are fear mongering.

125 deaths was an arbitrary figure. Because I was asking the question about “what is an acceptable number of daily deaths,” and used Heart Disease and Cancer numbers as a comparison. Maybe I should have worded it better.

In the future, we will not be counting case numbers, but the amount of hospitalisations and deaths. So at what number do we think the daily death count is unacceptable and measures need to be taken to reduce it? Not to mention how this will affect/overload our hospital network. Is 25 per day acceptable? What about 50 per day? Or 100? Where do we draw the line?

You call it fearmongering, I call it being pragmatic. It wasn’t that long ago virologist Alan Baxter was predicting 200 deaths per day in NSW by the end of October. Clearly vaccine rates are kicking in and changing that, but they have still had 53 deaths in the past week. And with another 222 in ICU (and who knows how many people struggling to breathe at home), those numbers are only going up. And it will get far worse once they open up at 70%.

 

[Bunnerz]

Regional lockdown chances?
Today?

 

[pete and tys]

I don't want an argument about this. Argue with the links if you like.


https://www.modernhealthcare.com/ar...heart-related-deaths-in-2016-were-preventable

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/cancer

But this is simply false.

Disraeli.. "there are three kinds if lies... lies, damned lies and statistics.

You are right in that statistics demonstrate that lifestyle factors may contribute to various illnesses, but they are not the cause of the disease in the vaste majority. Statistically increase the risk, but usually not the cause.
Lung cancer and heart disease are very commonly not caused by smoking or diet or obesity.
Driving too fast can contribute to death from a road accident and statistically increases the risk , but in most cases is not the cause. Death by motor accident is very commonly not due to excessive speed.

Happy to disagree if you are and leave it at that.

 

[MB78]

Regional lockdown chances?
Today?

I hope not. Regional Victorians have rolled up their sleeves and got themselves vaccinated at far higher rates than people in Melbourne.

In fact Melbourne as a local government are the worst in the state which is appalling.

 

[mrposhman]

UK 7 day average deaths is 138 as of 12/9.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

Israel had 45 deaths on 12/9 and have a 7 day average of 25.



125 deaths was an arbitrary figure. Because I was asking the question about “what is an acceptable number of daily deaths,” and used Heart Disease and Cancer numbers as a comparison. Maybe I should have worded it better.

In the future, we will not be counting case numbers, but the amount of hospitalisations and deaths. So at what number do we think the daily death count is unacceptable and measures need to be taken to reduce it? Not to mention how this will affect/overload our hospital network. Is 25 per day acceptable? What about 50 per day? Or 100? Where do we draw the line?

You call it fearmongering, I call it being pragmatic. It wasn’t that long ago virologist Alan Baxter was predicting 200 deaths per day in NSW by the end of October. Clearly vaccine rates are kicking in and changing that, but they have still had 53 deaths in the past week. And with another 222 in ICU (and who knows how many people struggling to breathe at home), those numbers are only going up. And it will get far worse once they open up at 70%.

My point of view. An acceptable level of death is not one we should be able to determine in numbers. The numbers will be what they are. Its providing an acceptable level of prevention in order to re-open. For every activity in life, we insert prevention measures to reduce fatality levels but accept that others will die, its a fact of life unfortunately. I suspect the number that will die from Covid will shock people but they are what they are.

Our responsibility as a society is to provide prevention measures, some people that don't take those prevention measures will die and unfortunately some with a worse type of co-morbidity will also die despite having taken those prevention measures.

I'll put it another way, lets say we get to 80% vaccination levels. The UK, Israel and Canada examples all provide us with different answers. I would say as a country, our demographics / healthcare system etc probably is most similar to Canada.

So the UK's 7 day average is about 130 - That would be an equivalent of around 40 deaths / day in Australia or about 12,000 for the year
Canadas 7 day average is about 30 so would be around 20-22 in Australia, around about 6000 deaths per year
Israel is around 45 as you say so around 100 / day in Australia, so around 50,000 deaths per year

Clearly wide examples, but we need to understand the differences in each country dealing with this, but people will need to be aware that annually even with vaccination a lot of people will die. To me what is "acceptable" is the level of prevention, death is never acceptable but is inevitable and any level of prevention. Even if we had 100% of people vaccination, some will still unfortunately die from Covid-19.

What we need to determine, is at what level of prevention do we re-open and live our lives again, and the modelling therefore tells us at what level of hospital capacity do we need to provide specifically for Covid-19 and ensure that we are resourced up to that level, both from a bed perspective but also from a personnel / people resourcing perspective.

 

[Ian4]

What we need to determine, is at what level of prevention do we re-open and live our lives again, and the modelling therefore tells us at what level of hospital capacity do we need to provide specifically for Covid-19 and ensure that we are resourced up to that level, both from a bed perspective but also from a personnel / people resourcing perspective.

which brings me back to the point about the Doherty Institute. They handed the federal government updated modelling last week based on case numbers in VIC and NSW. The federal government hasn’t released this to the public yet. And we all know why… At a minimum, one would hope national cabinet has seen it.