Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Coronavirus

Some of us would prefer to get more information so we can rely less on government instruction and make better decisions. And hopefully reduce the risk of catching covid. Some would obviously prefer to be told what to do by career public servants.

Undermine lockdown efforts? WTF are you talking about? I'm looking for more information you wingnut.

Its safer to listen to our leaders rather than making our own judgements about what is safe and what is not in a pandemic. Neither of us are epidemiologists, nor do we have access to the expert information that the government has.

Forgive me for thinking that your questioning of where transmission occurs might be related to your regular snipes towards the Vic Gov over lock downs on this thread over the last 12 months. If thats not the case then i retract my insinuation.
 
But i also get why there hasnt been a lot of info given so far. The media does not act for the good of the public, so any attempt at nuance is beaten down, with attempts to pick holes. if "x" is allowed, why isnt "y", then if "Y" why not "z".
then people are also not always smart. Making rules, or even giving information. that is complicated leads to confusion and will lead to less compliance, and more transmission.
"then people are also not always smart."

Ain't that the truth. But treating them like infants doesn't help. Dumbing things down doesn't help. Reducing personal responsibility doesn't help.

What % of transmission happens in the family home? What % of occupants end up infected? What % end up dead? Let people know that by breaching restrictions there's a chance they could kill a housemate. Which increases given XYZ etc etc.

Interview some people whose actions have lead to the death of a family member. Compare that to other dangerous actions. Shock people. Be explicit.
 
Its safer to listen to our leaders rather than making our own judgements about what is safe and what is not in a pandemic. Neither of us are epidemiologists, nor do we have access to the expert information that the government has.

Forgive me for thinking that your questioning of where transmission occurs might be related to your regular snipes towards the Vic Gov over lock downs on this thread over the last 12 months. If thats not the case then i retract my insinuation.
It would be great to get a more data-driven approach where we can see transmission sites rather than just exposure sites.

My only reservations would be around identification of cases/privacy, but that should be a solvable problem.
 
Its safer to listen to our leaders rather than making our own judgements about what is safe and what is not in a pandemic. Neither of us are epidemiologists, nor do we have access to the expert information that the government has.

Forgive me for thinking that your questioning of where transmission occurs might be related to your regular snipes towards the Vic Gov over lock downs on this thread over the last 12 months. If thats not the case then i retract my insinuation.
Safer to listen to our leaders? Which ones? My goodness.
 
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It would be great to get a more data-driven approach where we can see transmission sites rather than just exposure sites.

My only reservations would be around identification of cases/privacy, but that should be a solvable problem.
There are no privacy issues? You're not giving addresses, it's the settings that transmission is occurring in that's important. They must have enough data now to draw some pretty good conclusions.

Then again, ignorance is bliss.
 
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It would be great to get a more data-driven approach where we can see transmission sites rather than just exposure sites.

My only reservations would be around identification of cases/privacy, but that should be a solvable problem.

I'm not sure the tracers know for absolute certainty where transmission occurs, only that its more likely indoors. Bit easier to determine household transmission when everyone in the family gets infected but I don't see how they could be 100% certain whether this occurs within retail settings.

Edit - The Vic Gov have been pretty straight forward with info, I doubt they'd withhold it from the public if they knew. There's plenty of variables involved such as their age, their viral load, whether both parties were wearing masks (or properly) etc.
 
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Why this knee jerk reaction to obvious facts. Your own quote above says other studies have shown evidence of Ivermectin preventing disease.

My argument is that Kelly lied. You cannot refute that. It is absolutely crystal clear. Will any journalist ask Kelly about the Schwarz study, or the Chala study or the Carvallo studies or the Behera study or the Mahmud study or the Chowdury study or the Babola study or the Podder study or the Ravkirti study or the Nizee study or the Hashim study or the ICON study in Florida.
I quoted the person who ran the study who said his study didn’t prove anything say that other studies have. I can quote someone on PRE too. So what.

It may be that you are right. I’m sure when smoking causes cancer was first being proposed that plenty of people thought it was crap - the evidence would have been anecdotal. Unlike cancer which takes years to form, we should be able to get a scientific answer on invermectin quickly. You should push for that IMO vs spreading attention gathering headlines from non peer reviewed studies with small population size and sprouting that that is the truth. We don’t even have to hurt someone to find out.
 
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While we are in lockdown with 35% vaccinated and delta cases surging and Israel with near 70% vaccinated also has a delta surge (as many other countries with high vax rates) Uttar Pradesh has destroyed the Delta curve and is open with covid cases in low double figures per day and who knows how much misery avoided. It’s not about silver bullets or miracle cures. It’s about a comprehensive public health response that just doesn’t solely concentrate on transmission but also tries everything available to help the covid patient fight this horrible disease.

Now the terminal cases on here will make their knee jerk responses to this and spout their hyperbole without ever reading or understanding any of the data. To be fair I start all my dialogues in good faith but I am sometimes disappointed by the lack of good faith (or perhaps grey matter) coming back the other way.

Anyway take care out there in lockdown.

The Uttar Pradesh case has to be investigated further. What can we learn from their seemingly successful public health response?
 
Where have all the 5 hour testing queues gone? just went to the Albert Park Drive Thru and were all done 25 minutes, were I happy that I didn't have to wait long? yes but also disappointed there there were not long queues as it reflects peoples apathy/reluctance to get tested.
This rain might be the biblical flood to wash it away?
 
Lamb, I don't have the time or the inclination to go around following all of your links.

But you stated that:

that the evidence I link to are published in peer reviewed publications.

You specifically pointed to "the latest ridgey didge double blind randomised control trial from Israel." and that was followed by a link to an article in The Jerusalem Post. In that article it states:

The study appeared on the MedRxiv health-research sharing site. It has not yet been peer reviewed.

So, the peer reviewed evidence you point to is not peer reviewed according to the article you linked to.

While we're at it, you claim some sort of conspiracy relating to funding of the WHO. There are a lot of things wrong with the WHO and funding from private bodies is certainly a problem (which would be best solved by increased untied funding, but governments continually reduce their funding to bodies such as the WHO). But the conspiracy angle weakens any argument because to claim a conspiracy you need evidence, not just supposition about donors' intent.

Ivermectin may well be a reasonable treatment for COVID, but advocating the widespread use of any drug is irresponsible without proper scientific research. This is the point myself and others have been making all along.

You can continue touting for an unproven treatment, I'm sure there is plenty of research going on in relation to treating COVID and I will wait until we get credible data before I would tout any treatment.

DS
 
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The vaccines got emergency use approval because on a risk/benefit analysis to fast track and not have extensive safety data of long term effects simply because it was an emergency. My position is that considering Ivermectin is one of the safest drugs available and the level of consistent research coming out about its efficacy in treating covid, on a risk benefit analysis it should have also been granted emergency use authorisation. The longer a virus is out there the greater chance it mutates. the more mitigation measures you have the better.

Thanks for the long write up lamb. We'll leave aside the issue of you throwing around the pejoratives first in the debate which all started through some vague conspiracist woo around Fauci funding research in Wuhan and all that stuff.

Facts then. Yes, Ivermectin is largely safe when prescribed and used properly, with the usual caveats and contraindications. Ivermectin is not safe when people quaff horse dewormer because of conspiracy videos on Youtube and a lot of the public health messaging is around that.

On the main point, you are right. The debate is essentially around the data. You say there is a wealth of studies that show its efficacious. David and I say well, most of those studies are not really that crash-hot and here's all the reasons why. I'll say it again, none of us are medical scientists, so if the studies you cite have been discredited by real medical scientists in a consensus of opinion, then I accept that until better evidence comes along.

I have no problem with Ivermectin being used in controlled studies, and even in large scale "trials" like in Uttar Pradesh - if its shown to have clinical efficacy, great. By the way, doctors and clinicians have been improving treatment of severe covid - it's misleading to claim it's an all or nothing stake on vaccines or track and trace.

I have noticed the shift away from Ivermectin as an effective antiviral and more of an anti-inflammatory even in the C19invermectin.com type sites.

Oh, one other myth we have to bust here too - the claim it's all about money. I've pointed out before that other companies besides Merck can sell generic ivermectin. There are billions of people still waiting for vaccines - the brown people Lamb claims we forget about - and if Ivermectin or generic versions of are proved effective, there are billions of dollars to be made selling ivermectin to governments and individuals in developing countries.

Conclusion: the conspiracy theories don't hold up. The medical jury is still out on Ivermectin. The end.
 
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I quoted the person who ran the study who said his study didn’t prove anything say that other studies have. I can quote someone on PRE too. So what.

It may be that you are right. I’m sure when smoking causes cancer was first being proposed that plenty of people thought it was crap - the evidence would have been anecdotal. Unlike cancer which takes years to form, we should be able to get a scientific answer on invermectin quickly. You should push for that IMO vs spreading attention gathering headlines from non peer reviewed studies with small population size and sprouting that that is the truth. We don’t even have to hurt someone to find out.

Nail. Head.
 
You know this argument on here is all so sad. Strawmen like miracle cures are bandied around. Unfortunately David ignores or simply is unaware that the evidence I link to are published in peer reviewed publications. The lack of intellectual curiosity displayed on here is astounding.

Nuance.! No we cant have that. Probably right since it is a footy fan forum. I provide links to a range of trials which of course are not read. My links are to positive trials, equivocal trials and negative trials. People cherry pick evidence and ignore the counter evidence.

So for the avoidance of doubt let me state my position clearly here. My take so to speak so that I am not misrepresented or mis-categorised. Forgive the length.

Covid scared the crap out of everyone, rightly so, and everyone scrambled around to come to grips with it. Inevitably mistakes are made and that is understandable when you are dealing with something novel. The public health response in most western countries was, as we have no treatment we need to take the preventative measures of hygiene, distancing and masking ( although again here there was early misdirection and deception by some authorities on the efficacy of masks). The imperative was to stop the transmissibility so the public health policy as enunciated by WHO was Test , trace and isolate. It was a given that there was no treatment. People who got covid were told to go home and isolate and if they got really sick to go into hospital. On the assumption that there is no effective treatment this makes sense. However many people died very sad and lonely deaths separated from their loved ones.

Some physicians had a different philosophy. They believed that they owed it to their patients to do everything they could to help the patient.
So they looked at all options including repurposing old drugs. And they made some progress. One of the FLCCC physicians is Umberto Meduri an expert in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) which was the main killer in Covid patients. Meduri was the first to describe the concepts of dysregulated systemic and pulmonary inflammation in ARDS and the cellular mechanisms responsible for regulation. He is the leading expert worldwide on the use of glucocorticoid steroids in ARDS and pneumonia . (One of Poshy’s crackpots)

Anyway he and some others quickly discovered that the pneumonia that presents with Covid was not viral as the virus passes its load quickly but an organising pneumonia they could treat more conventionally and started using steroids early in the pandemic and urged regulators to adopt it in their protocols. This was resisted (with the usual calls that it was untested) until a RCT proved Meduri was right and it became part of the protocol in September 2020.

Doctors tried all sorts of therapies, some helped some didn’t. The Monash research in April 2020 was a game changer when it showed Ivermectin could reduce the viral load of Covid by close to 90% in 24 hours and basically kill it with 48. The issue of course with in vitro studies is whether you can get effective doses in humans that are not toxic. From that time here was a buzz around it and there was no censorship. A lot of research happened. There were trials that suggested the concentration in tissues was higher than in serum which might indicate you could get an effective dose for humans. Frontline doctors all over the world without a vaccine started trialling Ivermectin on its own or in conjunction with other treatments. There was no co-ordinated plan (or conspiracy). It was simply emergency doctors trying to save their patients lives or improve outcomes.

There were many expert and eminent physicians and scientists amongst this group but they weren’t government authorities or large pharmaceutical companies so the trials were smaller. Some had flaws and many as most trials have weaknesses. Nevertheless they were remarkably consistent from the Icon study in Florida to Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh and India. Bill Gates had put funding via Unitaid into exploring a long lasting injectable version of Ivermectin (which would be patentable of course) So for the most part of 2020 Ivermectin was not persona non grata.

My opinion is that when some of the prophylactic studies started coming out showing really weird results like the Carvallo study were 0 out of 788 health care workers were infected when they took Ivermectin as opposed to 58% in the control group the pendulum started to change. Previously it was seen by regulators and pharmaceutical companies as a therapeutic which they might be able to improve and monetise but it now possibly challenged the vaccines which were in development. Remember the messaging was hold on, isolate, lockdowns until we get a vaccine and when we get enough jabs in arms Covid goes away. There were a lot of sunk costs in this strategy ( and it was a very acceptable and understandable strategy)

The Ivermectin lobby was able to change the NIH from a negative position on Ivermectin to a more neutral position ie not enough evidence to argue for or against Ivermectin in February of 2021. They were also hoping to get the WHO to change its position. They presented their evidence to WHO who came out with a negative assessment in March 2021. In their assessment WHO did not even acknowledge the prophylactic studies. They did not seek to argue against them or examine them, they simply did not exist.

At this point I just want to give some background on the WHO’s funding which you can verify by simply going to their home page. First the WHO is funded by assessable contributions which are basically the assessed fees each member state pays. These are less than 20% of their budget. The balance comes from Voluntary contributions. These contributions can be made by member states or private bodies. Now voluntary contributions are further classified into ‘core’ voluntary contributions which the WHO has full discretion in how it uses. The balance of voluntary contributions are tied to the wishes and imperatives of the donor. Core contributions account for 3.9% of all voluntary contributions which means that WHO is directed on how and where and when it spends its money on about 80% of its budget. The biggest voluntary contributor is Bill Gates who through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and GAVI provide around $800 US million over the two year budget cycle. Now lets assume that both WHO and Bill Gates are absolutely well intentioned and believe passionately in their cause, if the WHO has sunk costs of about $770 million from Gates directed towards vaccines there is no incentive to look at other prophylactics, It just doesn’t make sense. You would direct the money you do control (lets say 30 million from Gates) to other health priorities around the globe. So when I talk about an organisation being conflicted through funding this is what I mean. Lets say for example all of WHO’s money was untied then if an alternative cheaper prevention strategy is available the WHO might pivot that way and have access to greater sums for other projects. It's hands would not be tied in its decision making.

Anyway my thesis is that for whatever reason WHO and western public health authorities doubled down on the Test , trace and isolate strategy while waiting for a vaccine rather than a test trace isolate and ‘treat’ strategy waiting for a vaccine employed by Uttar Pradesh who are probably the gold standard in this regard. I believe that was a mistake. It just forgot about treatment. Covid is a horrible disease. Evidence keeps emerging of long haul symptoms for people who were unsymptomatic. In the US strokes are increasing 7 fold in people under 50. They are finding brain damage in recovered covid patients with mild covid . The virus is damaging. It’s best not to get it but if you do get it its best to treat it with the best means available as soon as possible.

The vaccines got emergency use approval because on a risk/benefit analysis to fast track and not have extensive safety data of long term effects simply because it was an emergency. My position is that considering Ivermectin is one of the safest drugs available and the level of consistent research coming out about its efficacy in treating covid, on a risk benefit analysis it should have also been granted emergency use authorisation. The longer a virus is out there the greater chance it mutates. the more mitigation measures you have the better.

While we are in lockdown with 35% vaccinated and delta cases surging and Israel with near 70% vaccinated also has a delta surge (as many other countries with high vax rates) Uttar Pradesh has destroyed the Delta curve and is open with covid cases in low double figures per day and who knows how much misery avoided. It’s not about silver bullets or miracle cures. It’s about a comprehensive public health response that just doesn’t solely concentrate on transmission but also tries everything available to help the covid patient fight this horrible disease.

Now the terminal cases on here will make their knee jerk responses to this and spout their hyperbole without ever reading or understanding any of the data. To be fair I start all my dialogues in good faith but I am sometimes disappointed by the lack of good faith (or perhaps grey matter) coming back the other way.

Anyway take care out there in lockdown.

Lamby - Thanks for specifically targeting me with this post. BTW I have never used the word crackpot. By all means put words in my mouth if it makes you feel better.

As I've said before, I'm not a scientist, or a doctor, but I'm a finance guy. I work with data and work in business strategy. We don't make decisions on a whim, we look for evidence etc that that outcome succeeds. Much like IT, you change a variable at a time as you then know what variable changes the output.

I'm certainly not against any drug. I have nothing against Ivermectin and I would love for it to be a positive treatment for Covid, however the vast majority of reviews that I have seen of Ivermectin have multiple different variables being changed at the same time in each of those studies. Some of these have been due to the situation, ie if you have dying patients, sure you will try everything, lets use this drug, and try that drug and maybe that one too. If they then recover, you know that something you did probably had an effect but you cannot say for certainty what the actual driver for the output was.

Thats all I've called for here. Never called anyone a crackpot etc. I want to see closed trials (ie. with just the 1 variable changing) in order to see what the benefit is.

I go back to the Joe Rogan case (being as you were the 1st to raise him). Of the 4 drugs he claimed to have taken (he did claim it even though you said he didn't), I think 3 of them (might have only been 2) have been approved by the FDA for treatment in Covid patients. The one that wasn't, was Ivermectin, yet all the media around this was how Ivermectin saved him. No-one knows if it was one of the 3 approved drugs, his natural immunity or Ivermectin that had an impact (or potentially all of those).

As I've said, I'm all for research and have a number of times referenced the closed trial that Oxford University is carrying out right now around Ivermectin, but if it makes you feel better to throw mud,. go ahead.
 
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1431 in NSW. 12 deaths. I’ve stopped watching press conferences but apparently Gladys is claiming NSW will peak in 2 weeks. In the unlikely event that’s true, it means they’ll peak at about 4,300 daily cases at a Reff of 1.1 and 10,300 daily cases at a Reff Number of 1.2.

VIC 14 day average is 88.6.
NSW VIC 14 day average after 30 days was 57.1

The VIC trajectory is startling and an indictment on Victorian behaviors, you cannot separate us from what NSW has done.

NSW took 55 days to go from zero cases to 200 VIC only 31 days :eek:
 
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I do apologise Poshy. They were David's crackpots. I committed the cardinal sin of putting you all in the same boat.

If I can summarise your 'collective' position it is we have to wait till all the evidence is in and then when all the t's are crossed and i's are dotted and Covid is endemic we can start using it.

You say you are not experts and are guided by those who are.

Fair enough and the role of the regulatory bodies in theory is there to do the work to protect us.

I would argue that all knowledge flows up like the steroid example I gave earlier. I would also argue that quite a number of experts (who have been employed by WHO to review the efficacy of medical evidence) have done so and found efficacy.

I would argue that there was no urgency by regulators (and naturally drug companies) to conduct these large RCTs we supposedly need. This was at best a huge error of judgment.

I think test, trace isolate and sending people home without treatment is a huge error that has exacerbated outcomes and will lead to untold Covid sequela.

I acknowledge the opposite view or views.

It is used extensively in the developing world most likely because the vaccination option was so remote. If the emerging debate has had one benefit it has forced Drug companies and WHO to up their game in developing areas with vaccine delivery.
 
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