Covid exit plan still a year away (paywalled)
Australia’s Covid exit plan — where the virus is eventually treated just like the flu — cannot be achieved until the middle of next year at the earliest, public health experts say.
And they say serious efforts will need to be made to convert those still on the fence about getting the jab, in order to get the desired 80 per cent of the population vaccinated.
The four-phase blueprint announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Friday includes an initial cap on international arrivals and a trial of home quarantine.
Burnet Institute epidemiologist Mike Toole said he was “disappointed” with the halving of the international arrival cap, as it did not address the root cause of hotel quarantine transmission.
“If hotel quarantine is leaky, it’s leaky, at any level,” Professor Toole said.
“I think it’s an easy way out, and it’s shrugging your shoulders saying the system doesn’t work, instead of trying to fix the system.
“It still could be done if all the states addressed airborne transmission, improved ventilation and ensured their frontline staff wear the proper masks.”
Prof Toole said having 80 per cent of Australians vaccinated was the most likely target for avoiding future lockdowns, a milestone that would not be reached until at least April.
“We know from the last survey that 26 per cent of Australian adults definitely intend not to get vaccinated, or most probably won’t get vaccinated. We’ve got to really work on those ‘most probably’ people,” he said.
“We can’t mathematically reach 80 per cent of the population without vaccinating children.”
Chair of Biostatistics at the University of South Australia Adrian Esterman said while he welcomed the plan, the absence of details made it “a bit sketchy”.
“To transition to where we’re treating Covid-19 a bit like influenza, for that to happen we need a sufficiently large percentage of our population fully vaccinated,” Prof Esterman said.