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Coronavirus

from the Guardian. is it just me, or is the DCMO saying if it looks and swims and quacks like a duck, it may be an emu?

please correct me if im wrong, but with the information offered here, either 1. Dutton caught it on the plane off the women on the plane 2. he had it, got on the plane and gave it to the 2 women sitting nearby, or 3. its an
extraordinary coincidence whereby 3 people randomly got on a plane infected and sat near each other?

shouldn't a DCMO be able to solve this riddle through relatively simple deduction and reduction?



Peter Dutton was “not infectious on the plane” with coronavirus while returning from the US, Kelly says.

“I spoke to Mr Dutton in his hospital room on Friday night and I’m not going to go into the details of his particular illness but I can say he was not infectious on the plane,” the deputy chief medical officer said.

“Whether he caught it on the plane or before that it’s hard to know. The incubation for this particular virus is quite long. It can be up to 14 days. He had been back in Australia for six days by the time he became sick.”

However, earlier today, two women who sat near Dutton on the plane have tested positive for coronavirus. Last week, Kelly also advised the prime minister, Scott Morrison, that he did not need to be tested for the virus, as he had not met Dutton in person in the 24 hours before he developed symptoms.

I don't believe a word the CMO says. He's saying what he's told to say.
 
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Will be interesting to see if the UK herd immunity strategy works. May not know for at least 2 years. Its a massive risk given how little is known about the virus.

Who would want to be politician having to make these sorts of decisions? Unfortunately astute leadership throughout the world is in short supply.
 
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Will be interesting to see if the UK herd immunity strategy works. May not know for at least 2 years. Its a massive risk given how little is known about the virus.

Who would want to be politician having to make these sorts of decisions? Unfortunately astute leadership throughout the world is in short supply.

Isn't that the thing though. No-one knows and doing anything is a risk. Complete shut downs whilst good at controlling the spread may have severe implications to our way of life. Ie. how long will countries need to shutdown for? Most companies have enough cash to maybe pay staff when they have no revenue for 1 maybe 2 months. If we shutdown for 6 months what then? Do many businesses go into admin? Does our unemployment rate rise from 5% to 20-25% with this impact? Possibly. If that happens, what happens to peoples mortgages, is there another credit crunch on our banks coming?

A herd immunity approach has significant benefits around this, that people can continue along the way of life, but if that occurs those at high risk need to be segregated from the rest of society. My family pretty much all live in the UK, my dad is 73 and has diabetes so right in that risk category and will most likely be confined to his house for the next 4 months.

There are risks with both approaches from a health, economic, social perspective.

With the shutdown method, like for China, its great that cases have stalled, but when they re-open and start reintegrating back to normal, is there a 2nd wave etc? There are so many unknowns, and I think both approaches have massive risks either from a health / economic or social perspective.
 
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Will be interesting to see if the UK herd immunity strategy works. May not know for at least 2 years. Its a massive risk given how little is known about the virus.

Who would want to be politician having to make these sorts of decisions? Unfortunately astute leadership throughout the world is in short supply.

Isn't that the thing though. No-one knows and doing anything is a risk. Complete shut downs whilst good at controlling the spread may have severe implications to our way of life. Ie. how long will countries need to shutdown for? Most companies have enough cash to maybe pay staff when they have no revenue for 1 maybe 2 months. If we shutdown for 6 months what then? Do many businesses go into admin? Does our unemployment rate rise from 5% to 20-25% with this impact? Possibly. If that happens, what happens to peoples mortgages, is there another credit crunch on our banks coming?

A herd immunity approach has significant benefits around this, that people can continue along the way of life, but if that occurs those at high risk need to be segregated from the rest of society. My family pretty much all live in the UK, my dad is 73 and has diabetes so right in that risk category and will most likely be confined to his house for the next 4 months.

There are risks with both approaches from a health, economic, social perspective.

With the shutdown method, like for China, its great that cases have stalled, but when they re-open and start reintegrating back to normal, is there a 2nd wave etc? There are so many unknowns, and I think both approaches have massive risks either from a health / economic or social perspective.

I guess herd immunity might be better if a vaccine is not found soon. If one is available soon (ie in a few months) then containment/delay will save more lives. If not, herd immunity might be better. Tough call.
 
I guess herd immunity might be better if a vaccine is not found soon. If one is available soon (ie in a few months) then containment/delay will save more lives. If not, herd immunity might be better. Tough call.

pretty sure they haven't confirmed that the body builds sufficient immunity to ward off the virus a second time around. Plus, Herd immunity is a concept used for vaccinations, i.e. measles etc. Not for when there is no vaccine.
 
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Isn't that the thing though. No-one knows and doing anything is a risk. Complete shut downs whilst good at controlling the spread may have severe implications to our way of life. Ie. how long will countries need to shutdown for? Most companies have enough cash to maybe pay staff when they have no revenue for 1 maybe 2 months. If we shutdown for 6 months what then? Do many businesses go into admin? Does our unemployment rate rise from 5% to 20-25% with this impact? Possibly. If that happens, what happens to peoples mortgages, is there another credit crunch on our banks coming?

A herd immunity approach has significant benefits around this, that people can continue along the way of life, but if that occurs those at high risk need to be segregated from the rest of society. My family pretty much all live in the UK, my dad is 73 and has diabetes so right in that risk category and will most likely be confined to his house for the next 4 months.

There are risks with both approaches from a health, economic, social perspective.

With the shutdown method, like for China, its great that cases have stalled, but when they re-open and start reintegrating back to normal, is there a 2nd wave etc? There are so many unknowns, and I think both approaches have massive risks either from a health / economic or social perspective.
*smile* sandwich either way
 
. The 1st she said to me was that dogs can get corona, which I said there is no proof to that and there also are no testing kits that will be being used on dogs, so not to worry about the hearsay.
I think the dogs rumour was a joke. I saw a meme that said W.H.O. let the dogs out :rolleyes:
 
pretty sure they haven't confirmed that the body builds sufficient immunity to ward off the virus a second time around. Plus, Herd immunity is a concept used for vaccinations, i.e. measles etc. Not for when there is no vaccine.

Yeah, it seems high risk and in some ways callous. I'm wondering whether it's pure spin after they know the viral horse has already bolted.

As a card-carrying pedant I must correct you on herd immunity though - originally identified in kids with measles early last century. The cause of immunity can be either vaccine or natural infection.
 
I guess herd immunity might be better if a vaccine is not found soon. If one is available soon (ie in a few months) then containment/delay will save more lives. If not, herd immunity might be better. Tough call.

Yeh, you've got scientists sitting both sides of the fence, who would want to be making the tough calls? Let it spread rapidly, potentially costing many lives in the short-term or try and limit the spread, costing many people their livelyhoods, houses, etc etc. I imagine the financial stress would lead to more social upheaval, suicides etc. So perhaps less short-term deaths but more longer term consequences?

Wonder where the ethicists like Singer sit with this?
 
The problem with betting on short term deaths is that there is a real risk that the countries medical infra will collapse. Looking at Northern Italy as the example, people with other medical emergencies like strokes, heart attacks etc etc are just not getting any attention because the hospitals are inundated with COVID-19 patients.
 
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Essential information undermined amid journalist point-scoring
Chris Kenny
The Australian
March 16, 2020


The lack of maturity and common sense from some journalists covering the coronavirus pandemic has reached fever pitch. Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt, quite rightly, used an appearance on the ABC’s Insiders to suggest people listen to medical advice rather than pronouncements from “armchair” experts, particularly citing 10 Network’s Peter van Onselen, who also writes for this newspaper.

Hunt is right. The behaviour of many journalists in pointscoring, adding to confusion and seeking gotcha moments is extraordinary.

It is as if they are so used to one-upmanship that they have no concept of a real national crisis.

On Insiders journalists argued whether the right procedures had been put in place over one infection — that of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton — whether his colleagues should have been tested or his offices fumigated. They also debated the on-again and off-again attendance of Scott Morrison at a footy match as if it were a matter of national significance.

Yes, at times my colleagues at Sky have been doing the same, and the ABC, of course, has been the worst.

The public knows this will be a long and tough winter, that the virus will spread, and that each infection needs to be treated calmly and rationally. And they see a media preoccupied with making political points or settling scores.

We are overwhelmed with information and most people are preparing for possible isolation in a largely calm and rational manner. Yet many journalists seem to be demanding that government provides minute-by-minute instruction for everyone on how to live their lives.

ABC television host Yumi Stynes tweeted that people should keep their children home from school, issuing instructions she thinks should come from government. Van Onselen, too, has been busy tweeting his health advice. We are seeing Twitter dumb down crisis management in the same way it has cheapened politics.

On Saturday night one of the ABC’s stable of comedians-cum-political commentators, Charlie Pickering, tweeted that he was proud to be part of the ABC because it was “filling the void with some certainty and trust”.

The reason for this public burst of pride was contained in a YouTube video he attached.

It was a “coronavirus community service announcement” issued by the ABC — a simple presentation from health reporter and physician Dr Norman Swan.

It was promoting the ABC as a trusted news source and providing basic advice about how to avoid virus infection through personal hygiene. It also advised people to seek information from websites and go to a doctor if sick.

So Pickering was proud to be part of an organisation with an annual $1.1bn taxpayer-funded budget that was capable of producing a one-minute promotional video three months into a global crisis. The video came 47 days after Australia’s first infection and 12 days after our first fatality.

But Pickering wasn’t the only one feeling the pride; ABC’s breakfast TV host Michael Rowland shared the YouTube clip and, rather presumptuously, declared on our behalf: “The nation thanks you, Norman.”

The executive producer of 7.30, Justin Stevens, said Swan “has emerged as an important voice of clear advice on coronavirus”. As Swan has presented the Health Report for more than 35 years, if he has emerged during the coronavirus threat, he’s a late bloomer.

Wasn’t this the sort of information that was being pumped out daily by commercial media, politicians, health experts and government websites?

On Saturday morning Q&A host Hamish McDonald tweeted it was “completely bewildering that still at this stage Australia does not have a mass public information campaign” on the pandemic. Rowland tweeted the same day, “Where is the coronavirus public health campaign?”

Now we are starting to get a clue. The previous day Labor attacked the government for not unfurling its paid public information campaign, which had been revealed in The Daily Telegraph a week earlier and announced a few days later.

Still, by this time the public health advertisements were already airing; they began on commercial radio in Sydney on Friday, the very day Labor was complaining. This was 24 hours before those ABC tweets wondered when they would start. Over the weekend, video versions were revealed.

It seems the political attacks on the government about the delay in providing an information campaign explain the excitement and faux praise for Swan’s video.

Could an organisation gifted enormous taxpayer support to provide clear, factual information, only manage to produce a one-minute video, 47 days into a public health emergency, not in order to fulfil its charter but rather to embarrass the government? What else explains the timing and praise?

Could publicly funded journalists be so puerile as to use their Twitter accounts to snipe at the PM over whether he was going to the football, seek to pre-empt decisions the government might take on medical advice, or make inane quips about the lack of a government advertising campaign when their job is supposed to be about effective communication of important information?

With daily factual updates available on www.health.gov.au, almost daily media conferences from the Health Minister, Prime Minister and Chief Medical Officer, and myriad other health experts available to discuss these issues, could any publicly funded journalist really claim there was a lack of information about an evolving global health crisis?

If there is a lack of information, doesn’t it demonstrate the media was either failing at its task or desperate to make pathetic partisan points at a time of genuine crisis?

Pretty much the only reason the government would need to spend additional taxpayer money on a public information campaign in this unprecedented age of digital communications, is because the media, especially the publicly-funded media, might be incapable of circulating dispassionate and useful information.

Instead of calm and rational use of their media platforms to amplify advice from doctors and health officials, ABC journalists and others, have taken to Twitter to lash out at the government and offer their own homespun recommendations.

A certain level of Morrison Derangement Syndrome has infected the Australian media.

It is a politically contagious virus that has mutated from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

The syndrome is most rampant in those who wish to portray themselves as “woke” and the severity of the symptoms increases in direct proportion to how emphatically the sufferers predicted a Labor victory at the last election.

At a time of genuine national crisis, we deserve better.

The response from government and other authorities will continue to evolve as we balance slowing the spread of the virus against bringing our entire country to a halt. But all of this is going to be a whole lot harder if journalists behave this poorly.
 
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It was the final straw for me and my family today - we cancelled our month long holiday to Melbourne that was due to start on Thursday.

So I guess it’s working to a degree.

We did the same Midsy. We were booked to fly next week, stopping via hong kong and then singapore on the way back.
It loooked like we would be in isolation in oz and then when we returned!
Plus a risk of sharing it with our families

Logistically the self-isolation coming into australia doesnt work. Do we stay in an airport hotel? Find a shack somewhere? Catch a taxi ? Go to a family home who canthen wander freely? It just doesnt seem effective
 
And there's a 2nd Politician who has tested positive. Sen Susan McDonald, a Nat. I wonder if Barny Joyce will be the next one