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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
The journo didn't miss him, got him right between the eyes.Was it this one?
The Trump Presidency Is Over
It has taken a good deal longer than it should have, but Americans have now seen the con man behind the curtain.www.theatlantic.com
its a powerfully written and compelling peice, to be sure.
but his central assumption is fatally flawed :
that Americans who are motivated to exercise their democratic duty and vote,
have the cognitive tools befitting the task.
Is the Vic govt going to close that cesspit on the Yarra that has a logo that looks like the virus?
You'd think the amount of human interaction there - cards, chips etc, would demand it.
You'd think the amount of human interaction there - cards, chips etc, would demand it.
I think positive stories are a powerful thing in troubled times (im sure Dimma would agree)
I shared one earlier about my grandad in the greet depression.
here's another.
Im lucky enough to own a big stone free paddock of sweet, deep alluvial soil.
ive texted a few mates around the district (im not pretending everyone in the country loves and can rely on their neighbours, some of mine are junkie fuckwitts and some are treasures, just like in a city)
and tomorrow, we are all keeping our kids home from school (pre0empting the inevitable and comfortable they are gonna learn way, way more)
and ploughing 2 acres and planting some sweet potatoes, corn and pumpkins.
we mightn't need 'em. we might be selling sweet potatoes and pumpkins and corn for *smile* all on the side of the road while we eat Aldi microwavable butter chicken. Im not saying the world has or will change.
Im just telling a little good news story.
people looking after themselves a little bit, working together, growing food.
like in the olden days.
I shared one earlier about my grandad in the greet depression.
here's another.
Im lucky enough to own a big stone free paddock of sweet, deep alluvial soil.
ive texted a few mates around the district (im not pretending everyone in the country loves and can rely on their neighbours, some of mine are junkie fuckwitts and some are treasures, just like in a city)
and tomorrow, we are all keeping our kids home from school (pre0empting the inevitable and comfortable they are gonna learn way, way more)
and ploughing 2 acres and planting some sweet potatoes, corn and pumpkins.
we mightn't need 'em. we might be selling sweet potatoes and pumpkins and corn for *smile* all on the side of the road while we eat Aldi microwavable butter chicken. Im not saying the world has or will change.
Im just telling a little good news story.
people looking after themselves a little bit, working together, growing food.
like in the olden days.
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Bill James
Guest
Firstly its difficult to compare early epidemic fatality rates with more mature outbreaks, That said:
Age looks to be the big one. It looks like 95% of fatalities are over 70yo in Italy. It seems that susceptibility follows a similar pattern with just 1.2% of cases under 18yo. Italy has the second largest over 65 population in the world behind Japan. Lombardia has more over 65's than the Italian average.
Social separation will be a big factor, hence the restrictions on gathering. The case rate is higher in high population density regions of italy. Italian culture is notorously social, and involves a lot of physcal greeting interaction In the USA the coastal states are presenting higher cases than the mid states in this early stage. I suspect this is related to population density not voting preferences!!!
Underlying conditions and smoking prevalance are also going to be big factors. (More to follow.)
Finally health care quality and burden will be factors. Better healthcare systems will fare better, providing they don't get overloaded, which is the sense behind restricting infection measues.
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Bill James
Guest
Research has identifed that smokers are 50% more likely to contract flu, and 50% more likely to suffer severe symptoms than non smokers. It is likely that CORONA will also discrimate in the same way. Here is a map of cigarette consumption per capita by country.
*smile* me.
the story of 1 *smile* will always drown out a hundred stories of the good.
people are good and kind and they emerge fro the shadows in tough times.
spruik their tales
oh we're from ti-ger-land
and there I was at Coles today trying to be the good guy. My oldest daughter (11) asked me if we should buy another of something (can't remember what it was but there wasn't many left) and I said, nope, we aren't contributing to the craziness. I have enough food to last me tops 2 weeks and I'm comfortable with that. I'm not going to add to the madness out there.
As a 10 year Indo veteran I would say it's a pretty easy choice. If you tick a single one of the risk boxes, leave.
I was at Woolies this afternoon in the aisle with canned fish. One woman was in a near frenzied state clearing out an entire tray of tuna...like her life depended on it.
There are some people in our community who are on the verge of losing it.
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Bill James
Guest
Do a click and collect shop at Coles or Woollies, they will give you one pack before packing the shelves. Probably take a week to get the shop though.
I order my tp in bulk via amazon. luckily box was delivered just before this *smile* hit. got about a month left.
Just on the subject of proactive school closures again, seeing our federal government has decided they are unnecessary.
I can understand the negatives associated with them (commercial/social/economic), but the idea that they could make things worse seems an unusual step in logic and unsupported by any evidence. Scomo's presser today spent the first 20 minutes pointing out the risks associated with groups of more than 500 people in a small area. My school has over a thousand people (with little hygiene awareness) crammed into an area that you physically can't move through without colliding with people.
Across previous pandemics, epidemics, and even this current one, there is significant evidence that proactive school closures mediate and reduce the spread of the disease. There is, however, an argument to say that they might not have as much as an effect as we might hope in this one, particularly if they are short term (2 weeks). And there could admittedly be other costs.
But here's a couple of things to think about.
1. Victorian school holidays are in two weeks time. By closing schools now, you could give a four week buffer to a huge subsection of the community which congregates in extremely confined areas, in high numbers. This would go a long way toward reducing potential spread. Other states could move their term breaks around to also make this work. This also reduces the negative academic and social outcomes - Teachers often have to make up two week gaps in their curriculum due to things like camps and athletic/music events anyway. And this way we essentially get four weeks for the price of two. The longer the closures the more likely it is to reduce the spread. Plus, in four weeks time, we will have more knowledge of best course of action, while having had as minimal a disruption as possible.
2. Concerns about students spreading around the community more broadly due to school closures assumes they are idiots. There's a lot of socially conscious, intelligent kids out there. And there's also a lot of scared ones who'll do what their told. Tell them to stay at home and play video games for two weeks. They'll love it. And if they are idiots who are going to go running around shopping centres for two weeks, well, they could just as easily do that after school anyway. But these will be a small percentage and this is all about numbers. Plus they wont be all over public transport to and from school everyday. There is the complication here of kids who have poor home lives, or don't have a suitable home life arrangement to spend two weeks at home. But I have thoughts on that too, see below.
3. Keep a couple of teachers at the school for those students whose parents are healthcare workers. This is the one real issue I can see as an argument for keeping schools open. We don't want to pull parents who are healthcare workers out of their jobs to look after their kids. So, simple. Instead of a school having a thousand plus people there, have 30 odd. Lower numbers are better. Kids whose parents are in healthcare have a place to be. I would happily volunteer to be the teacher who stays back to help out there. This could also be an option for kids who don't have the ability to be at home due to family issues. The scale of this might be an issue, but it could be mediated on a needs/vs risk basis. In reality, this is going to be more for primary schools than high schools. Most high school kids can be home alone. I can't see how this could possibly be too difficult to implement, but it does involve people thinking outside the box.
I can understand the negatives associated with them (commercial/social/economic), but the idea that they could make things worse seems an unusual step in logic and unsupported by any evidence. Scomo's presser today spent the first 20 minutes pointing out the risks associated with groups of more than 500 people in a small area. My school has over a thousand people (with little hygiene awareness) crammed into an area that you physically can't move through without colliding with people.
Across previous pandemics, epidemics, and even this current one, there is significant evidence that proactive school closures mediate and reduce the spread of the disease. There is, however, an argument to say that they might not have as much as an effect as we might hope in this one, particularly if they are short term (2 weeks). And there could admittedly be other costs.
But here's a couple of things to think about.
1. Victorian school holidays are in two weeks time. By closing schools now, you could give a four week buffer to a huge subsection of the community which congregates in extremely confined areas, in high numbers. This would go a long way toward reducing potential spread. Other states could move their term breaks around to also make this work. This also reduces the negative academic and social outcomes - Teachers often have to make up two week gaps in their curriculum due to things like camps and athletic/music events anyway. And this way we essentially get four weeks for the price of two. The longer the closures the more likely it is to reduce the spread. Plus, in four weeks time, we will have more knowledge of best course of action, while having had as minimal a disruption as possible.
2. Concerns about students spreading around the community more broadly due to school closures assumes they are idiots. There's a lot of socially conscious, intelligent kids out there. And there's also a lot of scared ones who'll do what their told. Tell them to stay at home and play video games for two weeks. They'll love it. And if they are idiots who are going to go running around shopping centres for two weeks, well, they could just as easily do that after school anyway. But these will be a small percentage and this is all about numbers. Plus they wont be all over public transport to and from school everyday. There is the complication here of kids who have poor home lives, or don't have a suitable home life arrangement to spend two weeks at home. But I have thoughts on that too, see below.
3. Keep a couple of teachers at the school for those students whose parents are healthcare workers. This is the one real issue I can see as an argument for keeping schools open. We don't want to pull parents who are healthcare workers out of their jobs to look after their kids. So, simple. Instead of a school having a thousand plus people there, have 30 odd. Lower numbers are better. Kids whose parents are in healthcare have a place to be. I would happily volunteer to be the teacher who stays back to help out there. This could also be an option for kids who don't have the ability to be at home due to family issues. The scale of this might be an issue, but it could be mediated on a needs/vs risk basis. In reality, this is going to be more for primary schools than high schools. Most high school kids can be home alone. I can't see how this could possibly be too difficult to implement, but it does involve people thinking outside the box.
If there is no racing or sport what will they bet on?
One positive side-effect could be the loss of a few betting companies
Interestingly (terrifyingly?) the Ruski's are not reporting any numbers.
