-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Rate of testing shouldn't affect mortality rates. Positives are still positive, just from a smaller or larger set, and mortality is calculated from positives.
Other factors then. Age. Obesity/smoking. Other conditions. Genetics?
And the kicker. Quality of and availability of health care once diagnosed.
From what I understand it's a couple of things. China / Wuhan had plenty of testing kits and everyone was tested. Sth Korea as well went on a massive testing spree. They would have detected infected people who didn't show signs. So a greater % of detections means a lower death rate.
In Italy, at least, they are only concentrating on those who are sick. People with the symptoms and coming forward to get tests. Of that lower infection detection, the death rate is higher.
Then throw in the age demographic. China and Korea have a lower percentage of the population over 65yo.
Then there's the medical infrastructure. I read somewhere, I think, that Sth Korea has approx 12 hospital beds for every 1000 people. Italy has a lot less and their medical infra has collapsed under the weight of the sheer magnitude of infected people needing hospitalisation. With less beds and specialist care available, more deaths.
Heard on the news just before approaching 3000.
LTRTR will update us I’m sure with the up to date figures.
They will be the No1 virus hotspot in the world soon
Here's the story on difficult choices in Italy right now.
amp.smh.com.au
Italy may abandon over-80s to their fate as crisis grows
yes, over 3k in the US now. Here's the site L2R2D2 gets his numbers from I think
COVID Live Update: 209,896,898 Cases and 4,402,084 Deaths from the Coronavirus - Worldometer
Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...
www.worldometers.info
I heard that. Terrible.Here's the story on difficult choices in Italy right now.
Italy may abandon over-80s to their fate as crisis grows
If they're testing only the sickest people who front up at hospital, the measured mortality rate will be higher than the true rate for all infections. Over time it's likely to come down, but the bottom line is more infections = more deaths.
The US updates sporadically through the night until around 7am Melbourne time. Smaller countries make one lodgement of data per day. But by around 7am you have the evening/overnight totals for most of the world. Then not a lot happens until around 10pm.
B
Bill James
Guest
Only two percent of the deaths in Italy as of two days ago were under 60, only two deaths under 50yo. Italy has the second largest over 65 population in the world, and Lombardia is one of the older regions. Its going to be tough up there. But unlike the flu, which has already killed 84 children under the age of 4 in the USA this season, Corona had caused zero deaths under thirty in Italy. The records from the USA show that positive results from lab tests for flu run at over 20%, even in Italy the positive results are running at around 17% of tests.
Outside of Hubei province the fatality rate in China is under 1%, and given the apparently high incidence of asymptomatic cases is probably lower due to presentation bias in the case data.
Outside of Italy and Iran where controls were put in place quicker, the apparent fatality rate is around 1.3%, again, I suspect it will drop under 1% and possibly signficantly under 1% the longer the episode runs and the presentation bias is mitigated over time.
If you are over 65 or have an underlying condition, take steps to minimise exposure, if you under 65 the fatality risk may be less than the flu, if you are under 30 it is almost certainly less than the flu. In Italy only 2% of all cases presented in the 0-18yo demographic. That is remarkably low compared to the flu.
Australia's three fatalities to date fit the demographic, the gentleman from the cruise ship was I believe late 70's with underlying conditions and the other two were residents in the same old peoples home in NSW.
So if you are stockpilng toilet paper, and you are under 50, why don't you put on a face mask and give them to an elderly neighbor to save them a trip to the shops and the risk of exposure. It is in this demographic that case development needs to be slowed because the development of critical symptoms and fatality rates seems to be an order of magnitude higher than for over 70's than under 50's.
Outside of Hubei province the fatality rate in China is under 1%, and given the apparently high incidence of asymptomatic cases is probably lower due to presentation bias in the case data.
Outside of Italy and Iran where controls were put in place quicker, the apparent fatality rate is around 1.3%, again, I suspect it will drop under 1% and possibly signficantly under 1% the longer the episode runs and the presentation bias is mitigated over time.
If you are over 65 or have an underlying condition, take steps to minimise exposure, if you under 65 the fatality risk may be less than the flu, if you are under 30 it is almost certainly less than the flu. In Italy only 2% of all cases presented in the 0-18yo demographic. That is remarkably low compared to the flu.
Australia's three fatalities to date fit the demographic, the gentleman from the cruise ship was I believe late 70's with underlying conditions and the other two were residents in the same old peoples home in NSW.
So if you are stockpilng toilet paper, and you are under 50, why don't you put on a face mask and give them to an elderly neighbor to save them a trip to the shops and the risk of exposure. It is in this demographic that case development needs to be slowed because the development of critical symptoms and fatality rates seems to be an order of magnitude higher than for over 70's than under 50's.
was talking to mum today.
In the big depression in the 20s/30s, my grandad was the union shop steward at the Ararat railway depot.
he was a boiler maker and a bushy.
management wanted to lay off 50% of staff but pop cut a deal where they all stayed employed halftime, week about.
on Pops week off, which he loved, he tended his garden (he remains the best vegetable gardener I've ever known) and rode his Indian scout out to lands borough and shot rabbits with a sweet old Winchester .22 and came back with a sidecar full to share around the blokes on half pay.
.22 is a very underrated calibre
cool hey?
this stuff has all been done before. stay calm, help each other at every opportunity .
Your pop did a great thing.
I'm thinking about worst case now... bunker down in Indo because it's cheap and warm but *smile* healthcare, and possibly no flights to Aus, or head back now to a cold winter with no job in Aus. Decisions.
B
Bill James
Guest
The data seems to suggest, a very disproportionate fatality rate and critical illness rate in the over 65, and negligble fatality rate and very small case rate in under 15. There are a number of factors that will contribute to the severity of an outbreak in any location such as social separation of populations, underlying illnesses, prevalance of smoking and quality of health care, but age seems to be the biggy. Indeed it looks as though susceptibility is strongly age driven not just fatality. Here is the age data by global region.
It shows that Europe has demographic most at risk and Africa has by the far least risky demographic with just 3% over the population over 65 and 41% under 15. Africa won't tick the boxes on underlying conditions and health care but this might go some way to explaining why it hasn't taken off quickly on that continent.
The last time I looked at it by individual countries, all the countries with more than 500 cases (except Iran) were in the top 25 for over 65 demographic, including china.
Look after your old ones. Wash your hands, cover your cough, and stay home if you're sick.
It shows that Europe has demographic most at risk and Africa has by the far least risky demographic with just 3% over the population over 65 and 41% under 15. Africa won't tick the boxes on underlying conditions and health care but this might go some way to explaining why it hasn't taken off quickly on that continent.
The last time I looked at it by individual countries, all the countries with more than 500 cases (except Iran) were in the top 25 for over 65 demographic, including china.
Look after your old ones. Wash your hands, cover your cough, and stay home if you're sick.
How do you self isolate on the way home after disembarking from an overseas flight?
