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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Victoria hotel quarantine inquiry: systemic issues more urgent than individual blame
Victoria’s second wave of coronavirus was caused by a mix of bad luck and bad managementwww.theguardian.com
A pretty good article and summary. I note a couple of parts support what Sing & yourself have pointed out in relation to systemic issues (in italics below). But i also note the below in relation to ministerial advisors and staff. Should we seriously believe that the staff are not briefing the ministers properly? Personally I cannot believe Eccles still has a job. Ultimately everyone will perceive this through their own political bias. Dan will retain the support of labour voters who will argue it was beyond his control and the right people have left and the system needs changing and the right will argue Dan has to take ownership.
One issue not much examined by the inquiry is the role of ministerial advisors and staff. When a minister claims not to be have been told something, were their staffers told?
When they say they were not briefed, are they being conveniently literal minded – as in, there was no written brief – or do they include the numerous text messages, including on Signal and Whispr, that today form part of the way governments run?
There are some extraordinary lapses of memory, including in the evidence of Eccles regarding an 8 April email in which ADF support was offered by the commonwealth. Eccles apparently did not inform Andrews about this key change. He says he does not recall whether he told anyone else.
This is a point at which the story could have taken a different and better turn. What on earth was Eccles thinking?
But the systemic issues are more important than a quest for individual guilt.
Unfortunately the number of deaths will lag behind the new cases, so they should come down a bit later. If we control the new cases we can slow and stop the fatalities.
Today's number is about what would have been expected, as per usual we get a low day and then some bumpiness, here's what it looks like:
By the Numbers:
14 Day trailing average under 20 is a good sign. Need some more days under 10 to really nail this.
DS
Today's number is about what would have been expected, as per usual we get a low day and then some bumpiness, here's what it looks like:
By the Numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing Ave | 5 Day Centred Ave | 14 Day Trailing Ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
24 September 2020 | 13 | 15.71 | 13.20 | 26.14 |
25 September 2020 | 12 | 14.57 | 11.40 | 24.50 |
26 September 2020 | 16 | 15.00 | 11.20 | 22.71 |
27 September 2020 | 5 | 14.14 | | 20.93 |
28 September 2020 | 10 | 11.57 | | 18.86 |
14 Day trailing average under 20 is a good sign. Need some more days under 10 to really nail this.
DS
The modus operandi of government these days is to contract out just about everything. Why would you ask and/or inform a minister that you are doing what they always do?
I know this was a much bigger issue and the middle of a crisis, but, unless you have a bureaucrat who is not only willing to think about their actions (ie: think about why they normally contract out and realise that this situation is not just a normal one and they should flag it), and, crucially, put their neck out and question whether normal operations apply, then no-one is going to say boo.
Just a normal bit of government sub-contracting, done in the normal way.
Add to this that sub-contracting means granting a potentially lucrative contract to a private business. So, ministers are, by design, likely to be at arm's length from this operation so they don't try and grant the contracts to their mates or the like (I know, doesn't stop them, but does give them plausible deniability).
This is where the ministers and premier should have sent word through the bureaucracy that this was not normal and changed the way things were working. That they didn't is a failure of the government, that things were done without going past ministers is not a surprise, it is business as usual.
DS
I know this was a much bigger issue and the middle of a crisis, but, unless you have a bureaucrat who is not only willing to think about their actions (ie: think about why they normally contract out and realise that this situation is not just a normal one and they should flag it), and, crucially, put their neck out and question whether normal operations apply, then no-one is going to say boo.
Just a normal bit of government sub-contracting, done in the normal way.
Add to this that sub-contracting means granting a potentially lucrative contract to a private business. So, ministers are, by design, likely to be at arm's length from this operation so they don't try and grant the contracts to their mates or the like (I know, doesn't stop them, but does give them plausible deniability).
This is where the ministers and premier should have sent word through the bureaucracy that this was not normal and changed the way things were working. That they didn't is a failure of the government, that things were done without going past ministers is not a surprise, it is business as usual.
DS
I think Eccles has serious questions to answer and yes his job should be in question.
Questions should be asked but Andrews has the patience of a saint calmly batting off the pack of Murdoch cronies who barely allow him to finish a sentence. Imagine if they questioned Morrison with such ferocity? If only.
The army of QCs employed (by taxpayers) to protect the ministers and public servants from incriminating themselves would embarrass anyone with any self respect.
Yep it's a *smile* disgrace. We're wasting $6m on this whitewash and all we get is senior bureaucrats and ministers each costing taxpayers an additional $10K per day (at the very least) to employ lawyers and QCs to direct them to tell the enquiry that they can't remember and/or don't know anything.
The contempt of these people for this process and by extension the Victorian public is boundless.
The numbers are proving stubborn. There's still a bit to go to get us to the 14 day average of 5 to allow us to take the next step.
Would like to see the breakdown of those 13 new cases.
Yep, the numbers are a bit stubborn.
Interesting article in The Age today about the way they have approached things in some parts of Italy. In one village when someone tested positive they went out and tested all their contacts, but additionally, all their family and friends even if they had no contact. They found more cases. SOmeone will have to find the link, we get the paper delivered in hard copy!
Anyway here's what it looks like today:
But, that graph is starting to get difficult to read, so I now have one which starts at the beginning of September which makes it easier to read the recent days and shows the trend after the cases started falling - the biggest numbers were at the end of July and beginning of August so worth remembering that this graph does not show the high numbers earlier:
Plus, the last 5 days in numbers:
The 14 Day trailing average continues to drop but we need to see a few days of under 10 cases for that to continue.
The testing rate is also an issue going by news reports. I know people who have asked for a test but been refused as they don't have enough symptoms, I rckon they should test anyone who turns up.
DS
Interesting article in The Age today about the way they have approached things in some parts of Italy. In one village when someone tested positive they went out and tested all their contacts, but additionally, all their family and friends even if they had no contact. They found more cases. SOmeone will have to find the link, we get the paper delivered in hard copy!
Anyway here's what it looks like today:
But, that graph is starting to get difficult to read, so I now have one which starts at the beginning of September which makes it easier to read the recent days and shows the trend after the cases started falling - the biggest numbers were at the end of July and beginning of August so worth remembering that this graph does not show the high numbers earlier:
Plus, the last 5 days in numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day Centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
25 September 2020 | 12 | 14.57 | 11.40 | 24.50 |
26 September 2020 | 16 | 15.00 | 11.20 | 22.71 |
27 September 2020 | 5 | 14.14 | 11.20 | 20.93 |
28 September 2020 | 10 | 11.57 | | 18.86 |
29 September 2020 | 13 | 11.43 | | 16.86 |
The 14 Day trailing average continues to drop but we need to see a few days of under 10 cases for that to continue.
The testing rate is also an issue going by news reports. I know people who have asked for a test but been refused as they don't have enough symptoms, I rckon they should test anyone who turns up.
DS
Yes. I don't have any time for reporters going to those press conferences for political gotchas and point scoring. I think by and large the majority of reporters have asked questions related to the actual subject matter of the press conferences but there seemed to be one or two who seem intent on concentrating on politics.
