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Coronavirus

Massive increase in test numbers today - 82,000+ according to covidlive.com.au
maybe an adjustment over a few days?

might affect your positive test rate numbers


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82,000? Surely that's an error. The most we ever did at the height of the second wave was around 30,000 I believe.

I guess Andrews and Sutton will explain in the daily presser.
 
It certainly will, but deputy cmo has just said these were delayed reporting. Makes it difficult to trend as it will make it low low today but it will likely be a one off blip, as the lower test rate would be spread. Would mean that the last few days the positive test rate is overstated, but without a restatement per day (which they won't do) it makes it hard to see. I guess we could look at 5 and 7 day moving averages on positive test rates.

Apparantly the backlog goes back to 31st July, so its a small amount per day.

The positive test rate normalised is 112 cases over 17098 tests - 0.65% which is still too high.
 
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82,000? Surely that's an error. The most we ever did at the height of the second wave was around 30,000 I believe.

I guess Andrews and Sutton will explain in the daily presser.

Being explained right now by Suttons deputy.

They split the positive / negative test results on the 31st July, and for some reason some of the negative results were not reported accurately. They did a reconciliation process and found these. Its a bit weird, but the negative test results could have actually been from any day in August.
 
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Well, the numbers are still on a roller coaster, rises for the last 2 days is not good and as a few have said, wonder what is happening. We can only hope the positive tests are a result of either more testing or better targeting of who to test.

Here's what it looks like after today:

COVID19 7 day ave 03092020.jpg

Like the positive test numbers, the DHHS should update the figures to reflect when the test was done.

Looking at the trends, the 5 day centred average reacts quicker and is heading very slightly up. The 7 day trailing average is almost flat.

The actual numbers for the last 10 days are:
DateInfections7 day trailing average5 day centred average
24 August147177.86142.80
25 August144168.71124.40
26 August111151.29120.40
27 August110142.71112.40
28 August90130.5797.80
29 August107117.0089.00
30 August71111.4385.00
31 August67100.0089.60
1 September9092.29
2 September11392.57

Based on DHHS data as corrected late yesterday, they revise the infection numbers each day although they don't move by much.

So what we are seeing is that the numbers have dropped but difficult to say where they are heading.

Can't see the Stage 4 restrictions being relaxed much for a little while, maybe a couple of weeks extra.

DS
 
Saw the onion eater on the news tonight doing another one of his stand and say nothing jobs while a journo talks to him

Politics aside, he really is the weirdest, most awkward humian on the planet. I reckon as a society we are very fortunate he never became a priest, wouldn't have ended well.

I dunno, he may have *smile* george pell in the *smile*, and saved hundreds of lives?
 
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Back to 81 cases overnight in Victoria with a massive 59 deaths sadly reported (accumulative). This includes 50 people in aged care who passed away in July - August.

In India they just recorded 81,000 new cases in the past 24 hours.:oops:
 
Back under 100 which is good, but needs to go down further. We won't see much relaxing of restrictions until it is under control in aged care and health care I figure. That would mean numbers well below 50 I would think.

Still, flattening out is better than going up.

COVID19 7 day ave 04092020.jpg

The US is still getting around 40k new infections per day which is better than a couple of weeks ago but still higher than the initial infection numbers and there was a dip but no break between the outbreaks. Deaths still tracking around 500-1,000 per day too. And, they're opening everything up and heading into winter so I can't see it getting any better.

Brazil and India both seem out of control, Europe is going back up.

Getting this under control is looking very difficult.

DS
 
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Back under 100 which is good, but needs to go down further. We won't see much relaxing of restrictions until it is under control in aged care and health care I figure. That would mean numbers well below 50 I would think.

Still, flattening out is better than going up.

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The US is still getting around 40k new infections per day which is better than a couple of weeks ago but still higher than the initial infection numbers and there was a dip but no break between the outbreaks. Deaths still tracking around 500-1,000 per day too. And, they're opening everything up and heading into winter so I can't see it getting any better.

Brazil and India both seem out of control, Europe is going back up.

Getting this under control is looking very difficult.

DS
Looks to be plateauing. Need some sub-50s.
 
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76 new cases and 11 deaths today. This thing is proving to be very stubborn. Will be interested to see the breakdown between aged care, health care and general community.

No way lockdown ends next Sunday. But we need a way out of this so people can get back to work in some shape or form. Otherwise Melbourne will end up a ghost town with 5 million zombies. Small business owners in particular are getting very agitated. Who can blame them when their livelihoods are on the line.
 
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76 new cases and 11 deaths today. This thing is proving to be very stubborn. Will be interested to see the breakdown between aged care, health care and general community.

No way lockdown ends next Sunday. But we need a way out of this so people can get back to work in some shape or form. Otherwise Melbourne will end up a ghost town with 5 million zombies. Small business owners in particular are getting very agitated. Who can blame them when their livelihoods are on the line.

Yes need to give self employed workers who can do their job socially distanced a chance to do their jobs.
 
More selfish protesters out today..what the heck is wrong with these idiots?

150 fines of $1,600 each given out today. Just under a quarter of a million. Yeeesh.

Going by current market value that's almost the cost of 14 world famous kebabs on the Gold Coast.
 
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At least it is back under 100.

COVID19 7 day ave 05092020.jpg

Looking flat at the moment, let's see what happens next.

Lower active cases so hopefully the new cases go down.

DS
 
Active case under 2000, and nearly 1300 of these in Aged care/health care, so under 700 'in the community' .
Can't be too hard to isolate the 1300.
Big issue is how many unidentified cases still around, and spreading, as well as the dickheads who can't follow the rules.
 
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Today is the day. Not expecting too much tbh.
Comparatively good numbers today but after 5 weeks of lockdown nowhere near as low as they should be. No chance the lockdown ends next Sunday; zero. Reports are that it will continue for weeks and that school won’t go back in term 4 :(