Coronavirus

[Sintiger]

Can’t really agree Sin. Appointing unskilled and under resourced security contractors to oversee the hotel quarantine was a massive mistake, probably the biggest I can recall from a government. It’s led to thousands of preventable infections and hundreds of preventable deaths. There seems strong evidence that there was more importance placed on providing jobs for disadvantaged people than proper measures to control a potentially raging pandemic. There is a time and place for everything; this was neither the time or the place.

Now we are where we are and we have the gross mismanagement and ineptitude of the hotel quarantine program to thank for that.

I know what chaos was around then and my strong suspicion is that the government didn’t even know who was providing security, not because they weren’t told but because they weren’t over that level of detail.
These things were left to people who write policies and frameworks and they had to deliver and couldn’t, but the reality is that they never could and ultimately that is the Government’s responsibility. Politicians generally have no idea what is required to deliver something, they rely on their departments and when that department stuffs up they are in trouble.
From what I have heard there were big problems in the hotel quarantine programs in every state. Clearly the securitY part was handled worst in Victoria and whilst in the end issues were probably inevitable because of that from what I have heard others states probably dodged a bullet. Just the week ago an ABC journalist returning to Tasmania described massive issues he saw going into hotel quarantine there.
We will see. My bet is the sacrificial lamb will be the Health Minister

 

[Sintiger]

Maybe I read it wrong but it seems ideology-based corner-cutting, which the other states didn’t indulge in, was at the heart of Victoria’s disastrous outcome. Hard to see how even Andrews can recover.

A person is asked to recruit a contractor quickly, that person is in the workforce area and has responsibility for the social policy side of workforce in that department so he awards the contract to someone who complies. That’s his job and pandemic or not he would just do it because that’s what bureaucrats do.
I have seen it time and time again. It’s the way things work. I am not defending it btw, just saying that It would happen as a matter of course and not complying with policy due to urgency probably wouldn’t enter the thinking

 

[Althom]

I know what chaos was around then and my strong suspicion is that the government didn’t even know who was providing security, not because they weren’t told but because they weren’t over that level of detail.
These things were left to people who write policies and frameworks and they had to deliver and couldn’t, but the reality is that they never could and ultimately that is the Government’s responsibility. Politicians generally have no idea what is required to deliver something, they rely on their departments and when that department stuffs up they are in trouble.
From what I have heard there were big problems in the hotel quarantine programs in every state. Clearly the securitY part was handled worst in Victoria and whilst in the end issues were probably inevitable because of that from what I have heard others states probably dodged a bullet. Just the week ago an ABC journalist returning to Tasmania described massive issues he saw going into hotel quarantine there.
We will see. My bet is the sacrificial lamb will be the Health Minister

ADF was brought into WA's hotel quarantine system this last week purely because we had exactly the same issues as Victoria.

 

[Ridley]

I know what chaos was around then and my strong suspicion is that the government didn’t even know who was providing security, not because they weren’t told but because they weren’t over that level of detail.
These things were left to people who write policies and frameworks and they had to deliver and couldn’t, but the reality is that they never could and ultimately that is the Government’s responsibility. Politicians generally have no idea what is required to deliver something, they rely on their departments and when that department stuffs up they are in trouble.
From what I have heard there were big problems in the hotel quarantine programs in every state. Clearly the securitY part was handled worst in Victoria and whilst in the end issues were probably inevitable because of that from what I have heard others states probably dodged a bullet. Just the week ago an ABC journalist returning to Tasmania described massive issues he saw going into hotel quarantine there.
We will see. My bet is the sacrificial lamb will be the Health Minister

Thanks Sin appreciate your insight and the point of view of someone who has obviously been closer to this environment than me.

Of course it’s just my opinion but when you’re an extremely dominant leader like Dan has been then I believe he can’t escape the ultimate responsibility.

He can’t accept the bouquets without also accepting the brickbats.

 

[AngryAnt]

Thanks Sin appreciate your insight and the point of view of someone who has obviously been closer to this environment than me.

Of course it’s just my opinion but when you’re an extremely dominant leader like Dan has been then I believe he can’t escape the ultimate responsibility.

He can’t accept the bouquets without also accepting the brickbats.

And he does. He keeps fronting up every day and says the buck stops with him.

 

[DavidSSS]

Difficult to tell exactly what is happening at the moment, plateau or just a break for a couple of days?

Here's what we see today:

​	Daily Cases​	7 day trailing ave​	5 Day Ave​
18 July 2020​	338​	266.71​	304.20​
19 July 2020​	263​	280.14​	315.40​
20 July 2020​	326​	291.14​	348.60​
21 July 2020​	439​	322.14​	338.80​
22 July 2020​	377​	333.86​	353.40​
23 July 2020​	289​	320.43​	371.20​
24 July 2020​	336​	338.29​	383.60​
25 July 2020​	415​	349.29​	379.80​
26 July 2020​	501​	383.29​	377.40​
27 July 2020​	358​	387.86​	445.00​
28 July 2020​	277​	364.71​	475.40​
29 July 2020​	674​	407.14​	450.00​
30 July 2020​	567​	446.86​	501.20​
31 July 2020​	374​	452.29​	519.20​
1 August 2020​	614​	480.71​	467.00​
2 August 2020​	367​	461.57​	494.40​
3 August 2020​	413​	469.43​	509.00​
4 August 2020​	704​	530.43​	474.00​
5 August 2020​	447​	498.00​	493.80​
6 August 2020​	439​	479.71​	​
7 August 2020​	466​	492.86​	​

The graph goes back further and here it is:



Looking inconclusive.

DS

 

[Tigers of Old]

Peter Van Onlslen on Insiders not correct on everything here but bringing some much needed balance to the conversation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292240553111719936

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Peter Van Onlslen on Insiders not correct on everything here but bringing some much needed balance to the conversation.

Writes for The Australian so he is obviously evil.

 

[Ridley]

Peter Van Onlslen on Insiders not correct on everything here but bringing some much needed balance to the conversation.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292240553111719936

Sorry oldie we’ve heard these arguments so many times but they don’t hold water. Everyone acknowledges security guards were used in other states. That’s not the issue; the issue is the management and implementation of the program. Other states had the police and/or military overseeing it. Victoria just threw the clipboard to the security companies and said off you go.

The fact is Victoria is in a state of disaster lockdown with hundreds of new cases and multiple deaths every day whilst every other state and territory is pretty much going about normal lives and business albeit with some form of minor restrictions. To claim it is just bad luck is as this bloke does is ridiculous. It is mismanagement and ineptitude.

No doubt the feds have made mistakes as well and we seriously need aged care overhaul. But the fact remains that the hotel quarantine *smile* up let the virus run rampant in the community and that’s how it got into aged care facilities.

The national cabinet agreed that states would run hotel quarantine. To now point the finger at the Feds and claim it was their responsibility is folly of the highest order.

 

[Tigers of Old]

First time the number has been under 400 for a while but 994 active cases among health care workers inVictoria apparently.

 

[Ridley]

17 deaths; largest single day total of the pandemic

 

[Tigers of Old]

To now point the finger at the Feds and claim it was their responsibility is folly of the highest order.

Like I said mate I didn't agree with all of it but at least he mentioned some things which have not been covered by many media organisations.

 

[mrposhman]

Some good trends starting to come out of the data. 3 of the last 4 days the 7 day moving average has decreased, its now the lowest since 30th July.

I've been saying it for a little while now, that we have 2 separate issues, aged care and the impact this has on healthworkers and the underlying case load. Active cases outside of aged care and healthworkers has continued to decrease and the 7 day moving average is now the lowest since they started reporting data on aged care and healthworkers. Also 2 consecutive days of decreasing active cases outside of aged care and healthworkers is a good sign, not massive numbers (today was -10) but going in the right direction. At that rate though, it will take some time to get the 5000+ active cases down to zero, though with new cases reducing the reduction should start to accelerate. This appears to be the impact of mask wearing as its too early to see the impact of Stage 4 just yet.

It is also the 1st time since 26th July that we have seen a decrease in overall hospitalisation, again small numbers (only -2) but we always hear the negative. I think its good to look at the positives.

Hopefully these numbers continue to decrease and really mark the change in trend that we all want to see.

 

[spook]

PVO is a decent journo, especially for a Murdochian. He's bright. A politics junkie with a degree in it and everything. Teaches it. But junkie's the word. He loves the game of it, which side is winning, who played well, a trait I abhor in politics hacks but acknowledge comes with the territory.

He's somewhat of a progressive but wants VIP passes to the Birdcage. I think he's a tad naive and a smidge conceited but a good fella.

 

[HR]

Sorry oldie we’ve heard these arguments so many times but they don’t hold water. Everyone acknowledges security guards were used in other states. That’s not the issue; the issue is the management and implementation of the program. Other states had the police and/or military overseeing it. Victoria just threw the clipboard to the security companies and said off you go.

The fact is Victoria is in a state of disaster lockdown with hundreds of new cases and multiple deaths every day whilst every other state and territory is pretty much going about normal lives and business albeit with some form of minor restrictions. To claim it is just bad luck is as this bloke does is ridiculous. It is mismanagement and ineptitude.

No doubt the feds have made mistakes as well and we seriously need aged care overhaul. But the fact remains that the hotel quarantine *smile* up let the virus run rampant in the community and that’s how it got into aged care facilities.

The national cabinet agreed that states would run hotel quarantine. To now point the finger at the Feds and claim it was their responsibility is folly of the highest order.

There has been a heap of good and bad luck involved all over the coutry Rids. Agree about the inadequate quarantine as above but there has been random luck everywhere.
For example;
WA has had numerous Victorians turn up to WA for work who should have gone into quarantine. A number of these idiots chose not to quarantine and have travelled within the state and gone to work! Dont work no pay!
Luck would say that these people did not have the virus. If they had of had it it would be a totally different story and WA would be back to where Victoria is. Funked.
There is definitely "luck" involved in Australia's covid position.
I still think the Feds should have taken control of international travel and the states internal and have all been exclusive quarantine arrangements.

 

[DavidSSS]

Quarantine should not have been in hotels, they should have gone for some sort of quarantine camps. Set it up in such a way that you separate passengers off each plane and separate those who test positive etc.

My pertner went for a walk today. Crossed Nepean Hwy and said she had to wait to cross because of the traffic. This was not the case in the first lockdown in March-April when you could almost cross the highway without looking.

Despite the increased restrictions we are still not down to the level of traffic we achieved in the first lockdown. Just what the f*** are all these people doing? Is there a good reason for them to be out? I have huge doubts about this.

Anyway, better number today and it is bringing the 5 and 7 day averages down, will be interesting to see what the 5 day average does when it catches up to today, here are the numbers (source is DHHS and corrected each day for the corrections the DHHS do to previous days' numbers):

​	Daily Cases​	7 day trailing ave​	5 Day Ave​
19 July 2020​	264​	280.00​	315.60​
20 July 2020​	326​	291.00​	348.80​
21 July 2020​	439​	322.00​	339.00​
22 July 2020​	377​	333.71​	353.40​
23 July 2020​	289​	320.57​	371.20​
24 July 2020​	336​	338.43​	383.40​
25 July 2020​	415​	349.43​	379.80​
26 July 2020​	500​	383.14​	377.20​
27 July 2020​	359​	387.86​	444.80​
28 July 2020​	276​	364.57​	475.00​
29 July 2020​	674​	407.00​	449.60​
30 July 2020​	566​	446.57​	500.40​
31 July 2020​	373​	451.86​	518.00​
1 August 2020​	613​	480.14​	465.40​
2 August 2020​	364​	460.71​	492.60​
3 August 2020​	411​	468.14​	508.00​
4 August 2020​	702​	529.00​	472.80​
5 August 2020​	450​	497.00​	492.20​
6 August 2020​	437​	478.57​	488.80​
7 August 2020​	461​	491.14​	​
8 August 2020​	394​	459.86​	​

Plus, the graph back to July 1:



Looking better, nice drop in the 7 day trailing average and a slightly different movement - we've seen it flatten, followed by a rise a couple of times. This time it flattened and then dropped a little. A few more days of this and we might be getting it under control. The 5 day average is based on surrounding days so we have to wait for data, but it should drop too especially as it moves past that big day of 702 on August 4. Ironically, both of the averages I am putting up here lose the same day each time - just a bit of a quirk but good for comparing.

Actually, looking at the graph (and this why a visual representation can be good) it is noticeable that the averages over 5 and 7 days are now above the daily numbers. A good sign as the averages will lag (in addition to smoothing the numbers) and if this continues then it should go down, here's hoping anyway.

Keep safe, and always blame the umpires

DS

 

[Tigers of Old]

This is a good reminder re masks..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292370193092677633

 

[DavidSSS]

This is a good reminder re masks..

https://twitter.com/x/status/1292370193092677633

I see a lot people wearing masks but not covering their nose. WTF?

DS

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Almost a thousand health workers are currently infected in Victoria. We are importing nurses from WA while 45% of doctors say PPE is inadequate and 20% are required to source their own masks.

Without lockdown, it’s easy to imagine them abandoning their posts for their own safety.

 

[Sintiger]

Thanks Sin appreciate your insight and the point of view of someone who has obviously been closer to this environment than me.

Of course it’s just my opinion but when you’re an extremely dominant leader like Dan has been then I believe he can’t escape the ultimate responsibility.

He can’t accept the bouquets without also accepting the brickbats.
[/QUOTE]
He probably can't. He was a health Minister of course and it's well known that disagreeing with Dan is not a good career move. He is undoubtedly hurt both publicly and in the ALP but my suspicion is he will fight and there will be casualties for sure.

I have come to understand that when things go right in the public sector it is rarely because of a Minister and when things go wrong it's generally the same. The key to being a good Government Minister is to make sure you have the best people around you that you can possibly get and that the Department you lead has the best people leading it.