Australia Post is now being impacted. We have to cull 33% by midnight tonight. That came as a bit of a shock, but I guess we have to do our bit (like everyone else). I'm tipping I'll be in the office late tonight trying to prepare.
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Dutton asked Ruby Princess questions as PM shuts down Andrew
Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton denied Australian Border Force made mistakes with the Ruby Princess, leading to the country's biggest COVID outbreak.thenewdaily.com.au
Pretty typical behaviour of the Federal Gov when questioned. Dodge weave, deflect or flat out refuse to answer.
Barely been a whisper from the Murdoch press on this stuff up.
Yeh both sides are as bad as each other in taking responsibility for *smile* ups. No one will admit fault for the Ruby Princess just an no one will take responsibility for the quarantine fiasco.
How did NSW manage their outbreak so comparatively well - especially given how far and wide those travellers went after disembarking.
Nice deflection, so, let's try again.
Where did the Murdochian get those numbers they decided to splash across the front page of their rag? What were the assumptions behind those numbers? Why do they promote that particular set of numbers and refuse to tell us where they got them from?
Or did they just make them up?
DS
Agree, i have an ex who is an ICU nurse and she's flat-out. Can you imagine if we had gone the open economy/herd immunity route proposed by Bolt and his ilk - we wouldn't have a functioning health system.
Novel bunyavirus re-emerges in China
A deadly virus has re-emerged in China, infecting more than 60 people and killing seven.
www.news.com.au
Another day another set of figures.
There was an epidemiologist from Melbourne Uni in The Age (or was it the ABC, can't remember) saying he was looking at the 5 day rolling average and that it was giving him some hope that the curve is flattening. A 5 day rolling average won't go back as far and you can only get the number a few days later (average of the day, the 2 days prior, and the 2 days post). But it is worth looking at this as it will show up a trend earlier but will also smooth out the numbers less. So, I'm including both a 7 day trailing average and a 5 day rolling average.
2 days in a row a bit lower, but we have seen that before, still to early to say what is going on but hopefully the plateau is here or we'll get there shortly, here's today's numbers with previous days adjusted for the DHHS adjustments:
Plus a new improved graph with 2 lines
There's hope.
Just thinking about this, given the 7 day average goes further back, the fact that the 5 day average is now below the 7 day average could indicate that the trend is plateauing since the 5 day average reacts quicker. As the cases were rising the 5 day average was above, if it stays below it could be a good sign.
Keep safe, and take it one game at a time!
DS
There was an epidemiologist from Melbourne Uni in The Age (or was it the ABC, can't remember) saying he was looking at the 5 day rolling average and that it was giving him some hope that the curve is flattening. A 5 day rolling average won't go back as far and you can only get the number a few days later (average of the day, the 2 days prior, and the 2 days post). But it is worth looking at this as it will show up a trend earlier but will also smooth out the numbers less. So, I'm including both a 7 day trailing average and a 5 day rolling average.
2 days in a row a bit lower, but we have seen that before, still to early to say what is going on but hopefully the plateau is here or we'll get there shortly, here's today's numbers with previous days adjusted for the DHHS adjustments:
| Daily Cases | 7 day trailing ave | 5 Day Ave |
17 July 2020 | 210 | 254.71 | 297.40 |
18 July 2020 | 337 | 266.43 | 303.80 |
19 July 2020 | 263 | 279.86 | 315.00 |
20 July 2020 | 326 | 290.71 | 348.40 |
21 July 2020 | 439 | 321.71 | 338.80 |
22 July 2020 | 377 | 333.57 | 353.40 |
23 July 2020 | 289 | 320.14 | 371.40 |
24 July 2020 | 336 | 338.14 | 384.00 |
25 July 2020 | 416 | 349.43 | 380.00 |
26 July 2020 | 502 | 383.57 | 377.80 |
27 July 2020 | 357 | 388.00 | 446.00 |
28 July 2020 | 278 | 365.00 | 476.40 |
29 July 2020 | 677 | 407.86 | 451.00 |
30 July 2020 | 568 | 447.71 | 503.00 |
31 July 2020 | 375 | 453.29 | 523.80 |
1 August 2020 | 617 | 482.00 | 471.60 |
2 August 2020 | 382 | 464.86 | 499.00 |
3 August 2020 | 416 | 473.29 | 515.60 |
4 August 2020 | 705 | 534.29 | 482.20 |
5 August 2020 | 458 | 503.00 | |
6 August 2020 | 450 | 486.14 | |
Plus a new improved graph with 2 lines
There's hope.
Just thinking about this, given the 7 day average goes further back, the fact that the 5 day average is now below the 7 day average could indicate that the trend is plateauing since the 5 day average reacts quicker. As the cases were rising the 5 day average was above, if it stays below it could be a good sign.
Keep safe, and take it one game at a time!
DS
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Looks like you are having fun David. Why does the 5 day average stop 2 days short?Another day another set of figures.
There was an epidemiologist from Melbourne Uni in The Age (or was it the ABC, can't remember) saying he was looking at the 5 day rolling average and that it was giving him some hope that the curve is flattening. A 5 day rolling average won't go back as far and you can only get the number a few days later (average of the day, the 2 days prior, and the 2 days post). But it is worth looking at this as it will show up a trend earlier but will also smooth out the numbers less. So, I'm including both a 7 day trailing average and a 5 day rolling average.
2 days in a row a bit lower, but we have seen that before, still to early to say what is going on but hopefully the plateau is here or we'll get there shortly, here's today's numbers with previous days adjusted for the DHHS adjustments:
Plus a new improved graph with 2 lines
View attachment 10191
There's hope.
Just thinking about this, given the 7 day average goes further back, the fact that the 5 day average is now below the 7 day average could indicate that the trend is plateauing since the 5 day average reacts quicker. As the cases were rising the 5 day average was above, if it stays below it could be a good sign.
Keep safe, and take it one game at a time!
DS
Many many people in aged care have end of life care plans that expressly forbid resuscitation and major interventions that would include intubation ..... They don't want to stay alive just to
Iive to make the stats look better. Doesn't matter what the cause is flu, pneoumia whatever their wishes are followed. Many with COVId would have the same attitude. Though of course they would prefer not to have been infected, but again the same if they get infected by someone else flu.
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The 5 day average is not a trailing average - it is the 5 days around the date in question so includes 2 days before and 2 days after. So it will always lag 2 days behind.
I did the 7 day average as a trailing average (ie: last 7 days) because it sort of works and it means I can get that average for each day as it happens.
The problem with a trailing average is that it reacts slower, the problem with an average where the day in question is the middle day is that you are always a bit behind (2 days behind for a 5 day average, or 3 days behind for a 7 day average).
Also shows you how different ways of dealing with the same numbers can give you different outcomes. This is fine as long as you understand the difference and the advantages/limitations of each approach.
DS
He says he got the data from a Vic government source. Since the government won't release the modelling, we've only got their word that The Australian's modelling data is inaccurate.
The government has declined to release the data, they say, because they don't want to create a sense of expectation or certainty while the data is highly volatile. So we'll have to wait and see.
Security guards hired for hotel quarantine in an attempt at social inclusion
Richard Baker & Noel Towell
The Age
August 7, 2020
A senior Department of Jobs official has been removed from their role as evidence mounts that the decision to use private security guards at Melbourne’s quarantine hotels was partly driven by a well-meaning attempt to provide jobs under "social inclusion" policies.
A leaked email from another public servant, the department's deputy secretary for inclusion, also paints a picture of how rushed the implementation was, describing "heroic efforts" over a weekend in late March as bureaucrats became "expert in the delivery of hotel concierge services".
The revelations will increase pressure on the Andrews government over whether it put too much emphasis on finding jobs for marginalised Victorians without ensuring that those guarding hotel guests were trained in infection control and supervised by authorised officers.
Infection outbreaks among security guards at two quarantine hotels in Melbourne are widely believed to be responsible for the state's second devastating wave of coronavirus, which has killed dozens of people and put hundreds of thousands out of work.
The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald can now reveal that officials in the Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions employment division and its international trade agency, Global Victoria, were responsible for engaging private security firms for hotel quarantine on the weekend of March 28 and 29. They also had an ongoing role overseeing the quarantine operation.
The task of contracting the security firms was given to the department’s executive director of employment, whom The Age and Herald have chosen not to name. The official has since been replaced by two acting directors on the latest version of the department's organisation chart. The officer has retained their senior role at the department.
Media reports from 2013 reveal the official had professional dealings with the Sydney-based security company given much of the hotel quarantine work, Unified Security, in their previous role as general manager of work and learning at the Brotherhood of St Laurence.
The charity and Unified established a partnership in 2012 to provide security training and jobs for marginalised people. The official also did some work with Unified in 2019 in finding a small number of positions under a Jobs Victoria project.
As an Indigenous-owned company, Unified satisfies the government’s criteria for contracts under its social inclusion procurement policy. It won the security contract for Metro Trains last year and specifically referred to its Brotherhood of St Laurence partnership in briefing documents supplied to government.
A Monday March 30 email written by the department's deputy secretary for inclusion, David Clements, refers to the rush to get arrangements in place to handle returning travellers over the weekend. Mandatory 14-day quarantines had been authorised the previous Friday by national cabinet.
The revelation of Global Victoria’s role in hotel quarantine raises further questions for the government because the agency has no experience in security or public health measures. Global Victoria manages Victoria’s trade relationships and international marketing.
The appointment of Unified proved controversial because, unlike Wilson and MSS, it was not on the government’s preferred panel of security suppliers. Despite this, Unified ended up doing the bulk of the hotel quarantine work. All three companies had to rely on sub-contractors to supply their guards – some of whom were recruited via WhatsApp messages – at short notice.
The press release specifically referred to 450 jobs being created in the hotel quarantine program “including transport operations, security and cleaning”. International students and temporary migrants were key targets under the jobs program.
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Whoops.
Pretty ordinary that we're getting more answers from investigative journalists than government itself.
Richard Baker & Noel Towell
The Age
August 7, 2020
A senior Department of Jobs official has been removed from their role as evidence mounts that the decision to use private security guards at Melbourne’s quarantine hotels was partly driven by a well-meaning attempt to provide jobs under "social inclusion" policies.
A leaked email from another public servant, the department's deputy secretary for inclusion, also paints a picture of how rushed the implementation was, describing "heroic efforts" over a weekend in late March as bureaucrats became "expert in the delivery of hotel concierge services".
The revelations will increase pressure on the Andrews government over whether it put too much emphasis on finding jobs for marginalised Victorians without ensuring that those guarding hotel guests were trained in infection control and supervised by authorised officers.
Infection outbreaks among security guards at two quarantine hotels in Melbourne are widely believed to be responsible for the state's second devastating wave of coronavirus, which has killed dozens of people and put hundreds of thousands out of work.
The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald can now reveal that officials in the Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions employment division and its international trade agency, Global Victoria, were responsible for engaging private security firms for hotel quarantine on the weekend of March 28 and 29. They also had an ongoing role overseeing the quarantine operation.
The task of contracting the security firms was given to the department’s executive director of employment, whom The Age and Herald have chosen not to name. The official has since been replaced by two acting directors on the latest version of the department's organisation chart. The officer has retained their senior role at the department.
Media reports from 2013 reveal the official had professional dealings with the Sydney-based security company given much of the hotel quarantine work, Unified Security, in their previous role as general manager of work and learning at the Brotherhood of St Laurence.
The charity and Unified established a partnership in 2012 to provide security training and jobs for marginalised people. The official also did some work with Unified in 2019 in finding a small number of positions under a Jobs Victoria project.
As an Indigenous-owned company, Unified satisfies the government’s criteria for contracts under its social inclusion procurement policy. It won the security contract for Metro Trains last year and specifically referred to its Brotherhood of St Laurence partnership in briefing documents supplied to government.
A Monday March 30 email written by the department's deputy secretary for inclusion, David Clements, refers to the rush to get arrangements in place to handle returning travellers over the weekend. Mandatory 14-day quarantines had been authorised the previous Friday by national cabinet.
The revelation of Global Victoria’s role in hotel quarantine raises further questions for the government because the agency has no experience in security or public health measures. Global Victoria manages Victoria’s trade relationships and international marketing.
The appointment of Unified proved controversial because, unlike Wilson and MSS, it was not on the government’s preferred panel of security suppliers. Despite this, Unified ended up doing the bulk of the hotel quarantine work. All three companies had to rely on sub-contractors to supply their guards – some of whom were recruited via WhatsApp messages – at short notice.
The press release specifically referred to 450 jobs being created in the hotel quarantine program “including transport operations, security and cleaning”. International students and temporary migrants were key targets under the jobs program.
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Whoops.
Pretty ordinary that we're getting more answers from investigative journalists than government itself.
Not sure if there is any whoops about it as all this will come out anyway.
I have no doubt that what we are going to find is a lot of well meaning people cobbled together a hotel quarantine response in a very short time and stuffed it up.
What we need to remember is what was happening at that time. There were people working around the clock putting things together that hadn’t been done before. I have no doubt mistakes were made.
These mistakes were unfortunately ones with dire consequences.
The mistake wasn’t necessarily appointing the security contractors, it was that they weren’t trained properly in infection prevention. They didn’t involve the parts of our health system who know about this stuff at the right time to get them trained.
Personally I am not sure that this article in the age will change anything.
Maybe I read it wrong but it seems ideology-based corner-cutting, which the other states didn’t indulge in, was at the heart of Victoria’s disastrous outcome. Hard to see how even Andrews can recover.
Andrews will have to eventually fall on his sword. It can not end any other way. He has run his government as “my way or the highway”. Not since Kennett has a Premier so dominated the government he leads. For the main he has been reasonably successful but the virus disaster will bring his downfall.
It is just a matter of timing. He can’t leave now as he must see this through. Plus there is no one else in his party that seems capable of stepping up. The rest of his gang of eight are just sycophants. That’s the problem when you have such a dominant leader. When *smile* hits the fan there is often no one capable of filling the breach.
It’s a shame because I think he’s been a reasonably good Premier. But after we eventually get through this he will fall on his sword. There is no other way. You can not lead like he has and then hide from the unmitigated disaster that has been caused by the rank failure and ineptitude of the hotel quarantine program. That is Dan’s to own
Can’t really agree Sin. Appointing unskilled and under resourced security contractors to oversee the hotel quarantine was a massive mistake, probably the biggest I can recall from a government. It’s led to thousands of preventable infections and hundreds of preventable deaths. There seems strong evidence that there was more importance placed on providing jobs for disadvantaged people than proper measures to control a potentially raging pandemic. There is a time and place for everything; this was neither the time or the place.
Now we are where we are and we have the gross mismanagement and ineptitude of the hotel quarantine program to thank for that.
If a useless, nasty, lazy, lying, do-nothing, non-hose-holding, Hawaiian-holidaying, footy-going, premise-rejecting, pants-sh!tting, criminally corrupt, marketing conman like Scummo can survive, Dan will be the next PM.
Whilst numbers have continued to go up today (414) and there was a slight uptick in the 7 day moving average, 1 of the stats that I am keeping is Active cases excluding Aged Care and Healthcare workers. Thats not to diminish those in there, but to try and identify the underlying results occurring in the community.
The below chart shows the trend and the actual day to day moving, so the trend has been at worst flat but now seems to be coming down. We haven't had a decrease in active cases (excluding healthworkers and aged care) since 29th July but that was on the back of 4 larger days and followed by a very large day, so it'll be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Does it bring another spike or another day lowering the trend. Its obviously still a positive number so cases in the community are still growing but there appears to be a clear trend where active cases in the community are at worst levelling off, and potentially the growth is starting to slow.
To really know we are on the right track is when we pass the 0 line on the 7 day moving average as that will confirm that the trend has turned and the curve is on the way back down again.
The below chart shows the trend and the actual day to day moving, so the trend has been at worst flat but now seems to be coming down. We haven't had a decrease in active cases (excluding healthworkers and aged care) since 29th July but that was on the back of 4 larger days and followed by a very large day, so it'll be interesting to see what tomorrow brings. Does it bring another spike or another day lowering the trend. Its obviously still a positive number so cases in the community are still growing but there appears to be a clear trend where active cases in the community are at worst levelling off, and potentially the growth is starting to slow.
To really know we are on the right track is when we pass the 0 line on the 7 day moving average as that will confirm that the trend has turned and the curve is on the way back down again.
