Well that's one way to totally destroy the crap the Murdochian prints, well done.
Anyone who knows anything about stats would see that for the cherry picking rubbish it is.
DS
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Well that's one way to totally destroy the crap the Murdochian prints, well done.
Anyone who knows anything about stats would see that for the cherry picking rubbish it is.
DS
I've been tracking this along with other stats for a while now.
I use a site that breaks out different information and particularly breaks out the impact in aged care facilities and health workers which really indicates the 2 pronged issue we have in VIC at the moment.
They have only been reporting this since the 23rd July so its not a huge data set but this is the 7 day moving average since they started (7 day MA starts on 30th July).
So we can see the Average movement in average cases has been increasing, but the Underlying (ie. community movement) hasn't changed a lot. What we need to see is the underlying grouping decrease as we are seeing constant growth in aged care. This would mean the community transmission is reducing and therefore restrictions are working but obviously we have a very serious problem in aged care.
The other thing that I think is good to see is despite the level of hospitalisation increasing, the % of those who are hospitalised that require ICU is decreasing and has been since mid July when we were at about 30%.
| Active Cases | Aged Care | Healthworkers | Underlying | % Hospitalised | % Active ICU | % Hospitalised ICU | |
30/07/2020 | 251 | 61 | 44 | 145 | 5.8% | 0.6% | 10.9% |
31/07/2020 | 287 | 69 | 45 | 173 | 6.1% | 0.6% | 10.3% |
1/08/2020 | 275 | 67 | 46 | 161 | 6.4% | 0.7% | 10.8% |
2/08/2020 | 298 | 70 | 38 | 190 | 6.1% | 0.6% | 9.9% |
3/08/2020 | 278 | 58 | 44 | 176 | 6.4% | 0.5% | 8.4% |
4/08/2020 | 276 | 60 | 45 | 171 | 6.8% | 0.6% | 8.3% |
5/08/2020 | 341 | 90 | 32 | 219 | 7.4% | 0.6% | 7.8% |
6/08/2020 | 295 | 94 | 37 | 164 | 7.7% | 0.6% | 7.3% |
I don't take any notice of what Bolt says or write, but surely he must have had a similar "post" when Scotty from Marketing cancelled Parliament again?Hands up who still thinks Bolt is a good bloke
No?
The situation is what it is. The graphic is clearly intended to cause embarrassment by placing Victoria among localities whose standards of living we customarily frown upon.
The implication is clearly that third-world results emanate from third-rate leadership and management. I for one am not prepared to dispute that that’s what we’ve received.
Well if you are willing to take cherry picked figures from the Murdochian then I suppose that is your choice.
Almost as bad as the numbers they trot out over climate change, cherry picked by dates, locations, whatever they can find. How's that 1998 end of climate change hypothesis going I wonder?
DS
It's interesting as an exercise in placing Victoria in the company of basket cases. Or "s***hole countries" in Trump-speak. It doesn't actually "mean" much, but it's shown up a few who've been butthurt by it.
Well I went out for my limited daily exercise again this afternoon. There are clearly less cars out there although still a lot of pedestrians around, look like they are just doing a daily constitutional, as long as they aren't out too long and haven't driven to the beach for a walk, unless it is under 5Km then I suppose all is well.
It actually looks like the number of people out and about, along with the taffic, is down to the levels of the first lockdown back in March/April. Bit of an indictment of recent behaviour really when it takes harsher restrictions to get it back to the levels of Stage 3 lockdown earlier this year.
Anyway, the DHHS have released their numbers so here we go again:
Plus a nice graph to see it really clearly:
Another step, a plateau or going down? We'll see.
Nice breakdown above supplied by MrPoshman, active cases gives you a different perspective and a very useful one. Good to hear those in ICU is going down.
DS
It actually looks like the number of people out and about, along with the taffic, is down to the levels of the first lockdown back in March/April. Bit of an indictment of recent behaviour really when it takes harsher restrictions to get it back to the levels of Stage 3 lockdown earlier this year.
Anyway, the DHHS have released their numbers so here we go again:
| Daily Cases | 7 day trailing ave |
16 July 2020 | 383 | 266.14 |
17 July 2020 | 211 | 254.86 |
18 July 2020 | 338 | 266.71 |
19 July 2020 | 263 | 280.14 |
20 July 2020 | 327 | 291.14 |
21 July 2020 | 439 | 322.14 |
22 July 2020 | 377 | 334.00 |
23 July 2020 | 289 | 320.57 |
24 July 2020 | 336 | 338.43 |
25 July 2020 | 417 | 349.71 |
26 July 2020 | 503 | 384.00 |
27 July 2020 | 358 | 388.43 |
28 July 2020 | 278 | 365.43 |
29 July 2020 | 680 | 408.71 |
30 July 2020 | 569 | 448.71 |
31 July 2020 | 375 | 454.29 |
1 August 2020 | 620 | 483.29 |
2 August 2020 | 397 | 468.14 |
3 August 2020 | 422 | 477.29 |
4 August 2020 | 710 | 539.00 |
5 August 2020 | 471 | 509.14 |
Plus a nice graph to see it really clearly:
Another step, a plateau or going down? We'll see.
Nice breakdown above supplied by MrPoshman, active cases gives you a different perspective and a very useful one. Good to hear those in ICU is going down.
DS
Maybe they're being shut out and simply dying? There were reports last week about hospitals refusing to take bulk lots from aged care.
Certainly the deaths chart isn't flattering.
"Is not nice in Kazakhstan. But still better than Victoria. Those guys really suck!"
Living in a third world country as I am right now I can assure you your COVID19 problems are small.
Yeah, I’m sure all those squealing “cherry picked data” have never posted “cherry picked data” themselves......
Seriously Lee you really should be careful with what you are saying sometimes
The capacity in Victoria of ICU beds before COVID is over 300 beds. The potential scale up set in place if necessary would at least treble that.
The most number of COVID patients in ICU in recent times is in the 40s. No one is being shut out of an ICU. Saying what you said has no basis in fact.
Very few aged care patients have gone into ICU, most who have gone into hospitals have gone into general wards but many have stayed but are being cared for by public hospital staff now in those homes.
There was a large influx and it took a little time to work it all out and get the patients admitted which was perfectly understandable.
Try this data set. Cherry picked you may claim, maybe, but these are the Top 10 countries for Covid as well as a few others either with similar size populations or similar age profile in our communities.
How does Vic look like here? Especially when considering where "the leader the world needs" is sitting.
How does Vic look like here? Especially when considering where "the leader the world needs" is sitting.
0 Laos 7.3m
21 Togo 8.3m
22 New Zealand 5m
27 Singapore 5.9m
29 Slovakia 5.5m
44 Hong Kong 7.5m
58 Congo 5.5m
59 Central African Republic 4.8m
61 Paraguay 7.1m
67 Sierra Leone 8m
68 Lebanon 6.8m
78 Liberia 5.1m
170 Victoria 6.3m
Mmmm, cherries.
Unless making a joke, I don't post anything that has no basis in fact.
Aged care home had request to transfer virus cases to hospital denied
Other reports concerned aged care homes in Fawkner, Epping and elsewhere.
