You are correct that case numbers are being misreported but the more virus out there will still lead to more hospitalisations (at a lower rate) which could impact the ability for the system to hold up.
Here is a chart showing severity of cases. The orange line is the % of those in ICU that are on ventilators and that has been dropping for some time. The blue line is the proportion of hospitalisations that are in ICU, again a declining trend. Much of this trend down will be as a result of vaccinations. Only now over the next few weeks will we really see the impact of Omicron.
I have also looked at tracking the % of hospitalisations as a % of active cases (on a lag factor, using both a 1 week lag and a 2 week lag, ie. the current spike in active cases is unlikely yet to be impacting hospitalisation numbers) which shows we are tracking at between 2.5-3.5% of people entering hospital depending on if you use a 1 week or 2 week lag. Again this is way down from our peak back in September where using a 1 week lag we were around 11% and using a 2 week lag around 20%. However, the higher the active cases, the more strain on the hospital system unless we can reduce the proportion of those entering hospital.
For example, we have 38,118 active cases today, using a 1 week lag at 2.5% - 3% in hospital then by next Monday we could expect to have between 953 and 1144 people in hospital. Our previous max was 851 on 18th October. The more the active cases increase and the % doesn't decrease the more people that will continue to enter hospital. The good thing is, with the lower ICU rates and ventilator rates, then it removes strain from those areas. With our current %'s of ICU and ventilators this would assume we would have between 105-126 in ICU by next Monday (well down on our max of 163) and 44-53 on ventilators (again well down on our max of 106).
I'm sure sin will be able to verify this, but when talking about hospital capacity, the biggest issue is around ward capacity and nursing capacity.
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