Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Coronavirus

You are correct that case numbers are being misreported but the more virus out there will still lead to more hospitalisations (at a lower rate) which could impact the ability for the system to hold up.

Here is a chart showing severity of cases. The orange line is the % of those in ICU that are on ventilators and that has been dropping for some time. The blue line is the proportion of hospitalisations that are in ICU, again a declining trend. Much of this trend down will be as a result of vaccinations. Only now over the next few weeks will we really see the impact of Omicron.

I have also looked at tracking the % of hospitalisations as a % of active cases (on a lag factor, using both a 1 week lag and a 2 week lag, ie. the current spike in active cases is unlikely yet to be impacting hospitalisation numbers) which shows we are tracking at between 2.5-3.5% of people entering hospital depending on if you use a 1 week or 2 week lag. Again this is way down from our peak back in September where using a 1 week lag we were around 11% and using a 2 week lag around 20%. However, the higher the active cases, the more strain on the hospital system unless we can reduce the proportion of those entering hospital.

For example, we have 38,118 active cases today, using a 1 week lag at 2.5% - 3% in hospital then by next Monday we could expect to have between 953 and 1144 people in hospital. Our previous max was 851 on 18th October. The more the active cases increase and the % doesn't decrease the more people that will continue to enter hospital. The good thing is, with the lower ICU rates and ventilator rates, then it removes strain from those areas. With our current %'s of ICU and ventilators this would assume we would have between 105-126 in ICU by next Monday (well down on our max of 163) and 44-53 on ventilators (again well down on our max of 106).

I'm sure sin will be able to verify this, but when talking about hospital capacity, the biggest issue is around ward capacity and nursing capacity.

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Great posting. I feel for anyone wanting elective surgery, as they will be bumped for many months due to this.
 
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Rapid Antigen Tests should be free but they’re not.

Even if you want one, you can’t get one for love or money. As absent as the leadership from our PM.

What an absolute shambles.
 
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Rapid Antigen Tests should be free but they’re not.

Even if you want one, you can’t get one for love or money.

What an absolute shambles.



the Govt pays about $80 for the PCR test, but won't pay $10 for the RA?

if NSW is testing at 20% + now,

then if RA was free and you only get a free PCR after a positive RA,

and 4 out of 5 $10 RA test are negative,

my maths says every 5 tests would cost the govt (5x$10) +(1X$80) = $130

instead of 5X$80 = $400?

saving $270/5 tests.

approx 100,000 tests done in NSW yesterday.

my maths says they could save $5.4m per day with free RA tests

Its not about the money.

The govt have a few people who can do maths.

The RA tests don't exist, cause someone didnt think to order them.

Its probably getting close to triple figures, Morrison balls ups he'll lie through his teeth about
 
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Making people buy a RAT is a clever way to hide the fact there aren't enough RAT kits in Australia.
 
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Making people buy a RAT is a clever way to hide the fact there aren't enough RAT kits in Australia.
First it was a lack of vaccines, and now it's RAT kits, Morrison has failed all Australians.
 
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Great posting. I feel for anyone wanting elective surgery, as they will be bumped for many months due to this.
They are also redefining what elective surgery is. My mates bother has bowel cancer and it’s not life threatening enough (one level below death causing is my understanding, stage 3?) and the surgery is deemed to be elective so he can’t get it.
 
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They are also redefining what elective surgery is. My mates bother has bowel cancer and it’s not life threatening enough (one level below death causing is my understanding, stage 3?) and the surgery is deemed to be elective so he can’t get it.
That is seriously *smile* FB.

I don't care what level it is, cancer is *smile* cancer.
 
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They are also redefining what elective surgery is. My mates bother has bowel cancer and it’s not life threatening enough (one level below death causing is my understanding, stage 3?) and the surgery is deemed to be elective so he can’t get it.
I'm so sorry for your mates brother.

It makes my ******* blood boil to think that unvaccinated schmucks are clogging up hospitals preventing cancer patients getting the treatment they need and deserve:mad:
 
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Coles supermarkets have RAT kits . Kept behind the counter in cigarette area. Limit one pack of two per customer.
Had no trouble getting two packs over the weekend...needed a second for visiting extended family. Next customer offered to buy it for us ! Staff happy to help. Just ask.
 
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I'm sure sin will be able to verify this, but when talking about hospital capacity, the biggest issue is around ward capacity and nursing capacity.

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Whilst the number of patients in ICU beds has not increased the actual number is a little misleading because there are another 30-40 patients statewide who are still in ICU but aren't in the stats because they don't have COVID anymore but nevertheless that part of the system is coping. The fact that the public hospital system has geared for high ICU numbers means that even if the patients are not there the space is taken up ( an ICU bed takes much more space than a ward bed).
Hospitalisation is going up and that together with the fact that some staff are furloughed and some are on leave means that Emergency depts are incredibly full right now which means pressure on ward capacity and inevitably ambulance wait times as patients can't be admitted as fast because hospital beds are full of COVID patients.
Staffing is a major issue, especially nurses. When you add the extra call for nurses for vaccinations, hotel quarantine, staff being furloughed because they have COVID or are close contacts and that we cannot import nurses from overseas to the increased demand staffing remains a major issue. The other area where staffing is stretched is in what is called community pathways which is a program run by public hospitals and private providers to support COVID positive patients who are not hospitalised. They are called during the day and visited to be monitored and that is very nurse intensive as well.
They are also redefining what elective surgery is. My mates bother has bowel cancer and it’s not life threatening enough (one level below death causing is my understanding, stage 3?) and the surgery is deemed to be elective so he can’t get it.
Noone has redefined elective surgery categorisation which is set nationally so comparisons can be done. There is Cat1, 2 and 3. Cat 3 is definitely lower priority, it is things like cataracts, some orthopaedic surgery etc. Cat 1 has never stopped, it is life threatening and that together with emergency surgery has kept going and has been shared with the Private hospitals. Cat 2 is split between 2A and 2B depending upon urgency as life threatening or pain etc. I am not a doctor but I suspect he has been categorised in Cat 2 as something that can be delayed.
Hospitals are making their own judgements at the margins, they have to.

This is why you will find a lot of people in the hospital system very angry with the unvaccinated. Our ICUs are full of unvaccinated patients and unvaccinated patients over represent the number in the general wards as well. This means that inevitably elective surgery patients are the ones who miss out and that is seen as unfair. They also place hospital staff at risk.
 
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14,020 cases up 63%, surely due to bank up and delayed results? I know a London Tavern worker who returned a positive RAT test but as of yesterday was STILL waiting for his PCR test taken Thursday o_O
 
14,020 cases up 63%, surely due to bank up and delayed results? I know a London Tavern worker who returned a positive RAT test but as of yesterday was STILL waiting for his PCR test taken Thursday o_O
Up to 6 days apparently
 
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Peoples expectations around speed of testing and getting results given the time of year and the massive increase in cases is surprising. The testing system is under huge pressure.

If you don't want covid do your best to avoid high risk places and have your family members do the same. Most have the choice (excluding those whose work exposes them to higher risk ) to avoid high risk settings.

If the ICU numbers end up meaning they have to make choices around who to treat I hope there is a policy to look after the vaccinated before those who have chosen to be unvaccinated.
 
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This is why you will find a lot of people in the hospital system very angry with the unvaccinated. Our ICUs are full of unvaccinated patients and unvaccinated patients over represent the number in the general wards as well. This means that inevitably elective surgery patients are the ones who miss out and that is seen as unfair. They also place hospital staff at risk.

This really *smile* me about the unvaccinated and the calls to treat them the same as everyone else. Why can't the feds convert a portion of Howard Springs into a Hospital, including ICU, for unvaccinated COVID patients? Staff the centre with the medical and frontline professionals who refuse to get vaccinated as well.

Just to make sure there is some compassion, arrange for Novak Djokovic to play an exhibition match there.
 
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We have to learn to live alongside the virus they said. I wonder if the Government has any understanding of how much frustration & resentment is growing towards them?
 
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Here we go again. Whether it's these papers playing sh!t with people or not.....who knows. But this is going too far now.

Is this Sigma or Pi or whatever the f*ck!

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"The numbers of cases we are expecting to see through January ... will be very high, certainly in the hundreds of thousands if not more in Queensland. Very high," he said.

 
Morrison says he has 'spoken to industry' (chemists), and the private sector/ market is the best way to distribute RATs. CEO of Chemist Warehouse, and a senior exec, both come out within a couple of hours and say they have not spoken to the government about RATs, and they believe the best way forward is for the government to make them free.

I'm starting to think Morrison is a compulsive liar. I saw the press conference when he said he 'spoke to industry', before I saw the industry response and he was completely unconvincing.

this government are a disgrace.
 
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