Hay does have one point, and that is until the Hawks actually get to the end of September, this list is just potential.
With their awesome list, we were all waiting for the inevitable Saints string of GF's not long ago, and guess what? They never came. Same with Freo, and now both sides are not far off their last roll of the dice before they need to look at a rebuild.
On the otherhand, the Swans continually get written off as too old and past it, but somehow manage to be at the pointy end in recent years. Similar with Adelaide, who were expected to fall apart with an aging list and an untried coach.
The point is, getting to GF's (and more to the point winning them) is not just about your list and how hot you look on paper and during the H&A. Some teams lack the "it" factor to pull it off in Sept, while others switch on in September and are at their scariest.
For the Hawks, the jury is still out as they are really untested as yet. They had one finals run last year, but its too early to call it an indication of things to come or a hic-cup on the road to success.