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Anything could happen this year
- Thread starter Sintiger
- Start date
Ice said:
and the Adelaide game showed how hard that is to do - we were cooked after 2 games of high intensity (Freo and Hawks)
Could just as easily find that these three aging teams have hardened a bit too much n might struggle to even find that extra rung required in the heat of finals. All three have been patchy in recent weeks n might just struggle with the young dogs constantly snapping at their heels.RemoteTiger said:
Ice said:
These are the results I did of a final 8 simulation a few years back.
The % Adv column takes account of the position difference on the ladder at the end of H&A eg 2nd vs 6th at 2% would allow a 50+4*2-50-4*2 = 58%-42% advantage probability.
Premiership Probabilities
| H&A Finish | All Equal | 1% Adv | 2% Adv | 3% Adv |
| 1st | 18.75% | 22.02% | 25.31% | 28.57% |
| 2nd | 18.75% | 20.65% | 22.35% | 23.82% |
| 3rd | 18.75% | 19.34% | 19.63% | 19.65% |
| 4th | 18.75% | 18.09% | 17.16% | 16.03% |
| 5th | 6.25% | 5.77% | 5.21% | 4.61% |
| 6th | 6.25% | 5.22% | 4.25% | 3.38% |
| 7th | 6.25% | 4.70% | 3.41% | 2.37% |
| 8th | 6.25% | 4.21% | 2.67% | 1.57% |
Good analysis that stacks up over time.
The Freo loss looks like costing us a realistic opportunity at a very deep run into Sept.
The Freo loss looks like costing us a realistic opportunity at a very deep run into Sept.
Leysy Days said:
The Melbourne loss earlier in the season is the reason we are where we are............
Yep, it's the Freo game that cost us.
We were out of the Dees game in the 3rd quarter. The Freo game we were winning until the last minute.
We were out of the Dees game in the 3rd quarter. The Freo game we were winning until the last minute.
In my opinion it's round 23 that will tell the story. It's one of the last "monkeys" to get off our backs.
I have always thought, we must be some sort of show - with our best 5-10 players staying fit. I hope. Now the bookies think so too
The cream at the top is highly talented.
The problem is the lesser players in the best 22 for mine.
The cream at the top is highly talented.
The problem is the lesser players in the best 22 for mine.
Leysy Days said:
Every side every year has one or two if-onlys. Whether its to make the 8 the top 4 whatever. Just part of footy. The flipside is we were very lucky to get away with the GWS win.
Ice said:
Yep. This is how they compare with the final 8 system we had from 1994-99:
| H&A Finish | All Equal | 1% Adv | 2% Adv | 3% Adv |
| 1st | 18.75% | 22.80% | 26.93% | 31.09% |
| 2nd | 18.75% | 21.29% | 23.50% | 25.32% |
| 3rd | 15.63% | 16.35% | 16.59% | 16.36% |
| 4th | 12.50% | 12.17% | 11.54% | 10.70% |
| 5th | 12.50% | 11.32% | 9.99% | 8.59% |
| 6th | 9.38% | 7.71% | 6.20% | 4.88% |
| 7th | 6.25% | 4.39% | 2.93% | 1.83% |
| 8th | 6.25% | 3.96% | 2.32% | 1.23% |
This round will be fun
Fri : geelong v Collingwood
Sat : western Bulldogs v North
Richmond essendon
Sun: Crows v Eagles
Then next week
Geelong v adelaide
Richmond v North
Fri : geelong v Collingwood
Sat : western Bulldogs v North
Richmond essendon
Sun: Crows v Eagles
Then next week
Geelong v adelaide
Richmond v North
tigersnake said:
Umm, no. The top 4 teams at the end of the H & A wont have any if only's.
They'll have won enough games to ensure every chance at a flag.
For the second time in three years we look like coming up 1 game short of that scenario.
