Never before has finishing 4th looked so much better than finishing 5th (with the exception of 2013 :-\).
Finish 4th and we would play against a team we have a good record against on a ground we play well at. Win that and we get a home prelim; probably against another of the top 3 teams that we match up so well against. Lose in W1 and we get another chance at the MCG against Swans or WB before getting another chance at 'our bunnies'.
Finish 5th (or 6th) and we will play against one of our bogey teams. Win that and we probably have to travel to Sydney. Win that and we either travel to Perth or play Hawthorn after a week off studying us.
Finish 4th and we are a realistic chance at the flag. Finish 5th and we are a long shot just to make a prelim.
As a result the most important game of the season for us at this stage might not even involve us. It might be Saints vs Swans this week! (swans' last realistic chance to drop a game).
Finish 4th and we would play against a team we have a good record against on a ground we play well at. Win that and we get a home prelim; probably against another of the top 3 teams that we match up so well against. Lose in W1 and we get another chance at the MCG against Swans or WB before getting another chance at 'our bunnies'.
Finish 5th (or 6th) and we will play against one of our bogey teams. Win that and we probably have to travel to Sydney. Win that and we either travel to Perth or play Hawthorn after a week off studying us.
Finish 4th and we are a realistic chance at the flag. Finish 5th and we are a long shot just to make a prelim.
As a result the most important game of the season for us at this stage might not even involve us. It might be Saints vs Swans this week! (swans' last realistic chance to drop a game).