Alex Rance

[Disco08]

A good stat for a defender's overhead ability is spoils. They generally try and punch the ball in contested situations, not mark it.

You can stand by what you said if you like. I think you're absolutely miles off the mark.

The best example were those two "touching attempts" on the goal line in the last quarter against the Bulldogs. Wouldn't show up on any stats but highlights his lack of ability to judge a high ball in flight.

Of course that shows up in stats. They document everything these days. They'd both have been errors, no doubt.

 

[Ice]

OK - next few games I will count the number of overhead marks he takes and the number of overhead spoils (fist punching ball overhead). I will also check McGuane, just for comparison's sake, and someone I do rate as pretty good overhead.

If Rance's numbers are relatively high I will be convinced he is good overhead.

 

[Leysy Days]

Nah sorry mate. For whatever reason these people are very protective of their stats.

Maybe fudge from CD could help.

No stress Disco.

 

[Disco08]

OK - next few games I will count the number of overhead marks he takes and the number of overhead spoils (fist punching ball overhead). I will also check McGuane, just for comparison's sake, and someone I do rate as pretty good overhead.

If Rance's numbers are relatively high I will be convinced he is good overhead.

Do you have any of the Essendon, Freo, North or Brisbane games recorded? Even the Dogs game (yes he was poor overall) he made a number of good spoils on Minson who's 3 inches taller than him.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Maybe chest marks.

I'll admit he gets to a lot of contests therefore his numbers might be up for spoils. Would reckon he would also be high for frees against, and marks against.

To be honest, I don't trust stats that much. They can give an indication, but I prefer to make my judgements from what I observe on the field.

Good post.
I agree with you that whilst Alex has improved his aerial ability somewhat it still is a fair weakness in his game.
Grimes by comparison is excellent. So too is McGuane in this particular respect.
Alex will need to keep working at it if he's going to be an elite key defender. He's a fair way off still yet but definitely on the up.
Will he get there remains to be seen.

 

[Ice]

Do you have any of the Essendon, Freo, North or Brisbane games recorded? Even the Dogs game (yes he was poor overall) he made a number of good spoils on Minson who's 3 inches taller than him.

No, haven't kept them. Its funny, we must look at Rance's games very differently. My memory is of Minson taking contested marks and kicking goals against us - something he hasn't done very much of lately.

You have quoted Rance is high on the level of marks. This doesn't surprise me as he runs hard to create options. I just don't recall him taking overhead marks, nor contested marks. I have seen him a lot at Coburg over the past couple of years. What to the stats say about his level of contested marks, and how do they compare to other defenders? I am guenuinely interested - tried googling it but couldn't find those stats. His ranking of contested marks against other defenders would give a better guide of his aerial capability.

I am surprised his stats say he has a lot of spoils. To me he spoils by pushing his opposition out of position - something he is pretty good at.

My main contention is that with the high ball, he is vulnerable. Probably the only stat that would subtantiate my view, and the extent of that vulnerability, is the average number of contested marks taken on him, and how that compares with other defenders. Has someone got that stat?

 

[Disco08]

Yeah, like I said Rance was beaten by Minson and did have goals kicked on him but he also made quite a few good spoils against him.

Rance has 3 contested marks this year. Scarlett has 4 and Fletcher has 5. Those guys aren't bad overhead are they? The best defender in that regard is Hooker who has 11 although Rance has played less games than all of them thanks to the suspension.

Spoils only count if the player punches the ball away from their opponent. They won't get credit for pushing the player out of the way so they drop the mark or whatever. TBH I'm surprised you and others aren't noticing the number of good spoils he's making.

The last ones a tough one. I don't think there's a stat like that publicly available. Aside from Minson though, has there been a forward that's beaten him clearly all year? Who was he on against Carlton? A while ago but I seem to remember him getting a few kicked on him then. Probably his worst game actually.

 

[Brodders17]

The last ones a tough one. I don't think there's a stat like that publicly available. Aside from Minson though, has there been a forward that's beaten him clearly all year? Who was he on against Carlton? A while ago but I seem to remember him getting a few kicked on him then. Probably his worst game actually.

i reckon he played on hampson/warnock rd 1.
petrie kicked 5 on him.

 

[Ice]

thanks - where do you get the stats?

 

[Disco08]

Pro-stats. Some of them you need a subscription for though.

 

[Ice]

Lot of data there, but haven't been able to find any stats on spoils.


Found the following definition though: "A spoil is preventing an opposition player from taking clean possession of a pass from a team-mate. This is most usually done by punching the ball away from the contest." So a spoil stat doesn't necessarily mean punching the ball away.


Amongst defenders in the league this year, Rance averages 0.3 contested marks per game, ranking him 78th out of 100 defenders.

 

[Disco08]

Yep. Right alongside such shocking aerialists as Dylan Grimes, Darren Glass, James Frawley and Andrew Mackie. Just ahead of him are Scarlett, Goldsack, Fletcher, Chaplin and Tarrant.

Spoils are included in 1%ers. If you don't think that description basically means a spoil is a punch 99 times out of 100 we'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Ice]

I see also included in 1% are knock ons, smothers, and shepherds. Therefore I am not surprised Rance is high in these areas. They have nothing to do with overhead capability.

So - we will have to agree to disagree.

I have now got a headache from looking at all those stats. I think I will just go back to watching the game...

 

[Disco08]

OK. I doubt very much Rance would do any of those things more than once a game whilst playing fullback. When he was playing further up the ground he certainly did, but not recently IMO.

Anyway, Rance is 9th in the entire league for average marks this year and 14th for 1%ers, a stat dominated by fullbacks. Further to the fact I've seen him make many good spoils and take plenty of marks overhead, to me it's just impossible that such results could come from a player with almost no overhead ability.

 

[Leysy Days]

Not sure why you keep trotting out marks as a pointer to his overhead ability.

Not a good example. Guys like -

Brett Guerra (No 3), Brendan Whitcross, Brett Thornton (No 2 no less) , Matt Suckling, Bryce Gibbs, Daniel Giansiracusa, Xavier Ellis etc are ranked in the top 20 in the league in this area.

It doesnt give a good indication of a players prowess overhead.

 

[Disco08]

The obvious difference being they all play midfield while Rance has been playing fullback all year.

Do you think Rance has next to no overhead ability Leysy?

 

[Sintiger]

There is no doubt that Rance struggled overhead last year and probably before as well . I can remember one or two times where the ball just went through his hands . Confidence and technique issues .
He is still not stellar overhead but there is also no doubt he has improved immensely in that area , probably because he is more confident and also because he has worked hard on it . I have watched that part of his game very closely this year and he now takes overhead marks when the situation is there quite confidently . He doesn't however take contested overhead marks . That may be because it is not his strength but it also could be because we want a key defender to spoil when in a contested situation .
His recovery when the ball hits the ground is very good , he is athletic and his pace and run is good this year . His decision making is still not fantastic but it is much better than it was .
I believe as I have said before that where he struggles most is one on one unless he gets a run at the ball and he is moving towards the ball .

 

[lamb22]

Rance has traditionally been poor overhead - to the extent that he couldn't judge or mark balls in flight even when on his own.

i mentioned last year tha he might have a sight or depth perception problem - perhaps after effects of his many head knocks.

He has improved in this area and I have noticed he is trying more to stay upright and use his height and size in marking contests.

He still has a ways to go and he reverts under pressure to the hunch or nuzzling in to the opponent from a crouch. Loses prime position doing this and gives away frees too.

Just a quick comparision to how young Grimes has gone about it in 8 games shows he far off the mark Alex is. He is developing though and I believe being well coached. He might make it but I doubt I'll ever feel real comfortable with him.

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Do they have going to ground stats? He would have to be right up there in that one. :hihi

No doubt he has improved...this time last year I thought there was no way he would make it.

But, he still has a long way to go before I will be comfortable with him on a weekly basis. Has to eradicate the tendancy to make costly errors, whether they be giving away free kicks, missing easy targets, completely misjudging the flight of the ball or going to ground and being eliminated from the contest.

I know all players do this from time to time, but when you are playing in the backline like Alex is, they are magnified because 9 times out of 10 they result in a goal, or at least a score. And IMO these costly errors undo all of the other good work he often does.

 

[Leysy Days]

The obvious difference being they all play midfield while Rance has been playing fullback all year.

So.

The vast majority are taken as easy uncontested marks that have no bearing on your overhead ability regardless of position. (Key forwards being the exception).

You certainly love throwing a stat out there & this is simply a poor one to show your point.

Do you think Rance has next to no overhead ability Leysy?

He has some ability of course. His spoiling has improved markedly with still a lot of work to be done with his body on body spoiling.

His overhead marking is still weak point in his game though no doubt.