Leysy Days said:
Hope you didn't. Geelong polled 16 fewer votes than I expected. Massive bust.
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AFL Betting Thread
- Thread starter palmyscum
- Start date
Hope you didn't. Geelong polled 16 fewer votes than I expected. Massive bust.
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easy_tiger
Guest
OK, so my bookie is offering 25-1 about Richmond being the highest finishing VICTORIAN side season 2017.
So, take GWS, Swans, Suns, WC and Crows out of the mix. This seems far better value to me than 50-1 for the flag.
Am I crazy? or is 25-1 pretty good value for us to finish higher than Footcray (Fluke), hawks (slide), cats (slide) and North (crap). given our soft-looking draw?
I can see 15 realistic wins.
I would just about expect GWS, Suns, WC and Crows to make up the 4 and the *smile*ing Swans start the season on 11 wins.
It could essentially be 25-1 for us to finish 6th or higher.
Given I preach the crap value in futures,
Am i deluded, or is that a rare value bet?
So, take GWS, Swans, Suns, WC and Crows out of the mix. This seems far better value to me than 50-1 for the flag.
Am I crazy? or is 25-1 pretty good value for us to finish higher than Footcray (Fluke), hawks (slide), cats (slide) and North (crap). given our soft-looking draw?
I can see 15 realistic wins.
I would just about expect GWS, Suns, WC and Crows to make up the 4 and the *smile*ing Swans start the season on 11 wins.
It could essentially be 25-1 for us to finish 6th or higher.
Given I preach the crap value in futures,
Am i deluded, or is that a rare value bet?
E
easy_tiger
Guest
E
easy_tiger
Guest
So in seasons gone by, I've tapped into the Tigers strange bio-rhymes week by week, and I've done ok.
I follow the rule to never ever back us at odds on.
But I started to find that the joy of an odds on win was dismissed, cause I hadn't made any money.
The bookies were ruining my fun. I'm sure I'm not alone here.
So this year, I'm having my entire seasons budget on us to make the 8 at $4.
I think this will do several things; enable me to revel in all wins almost equally; focus more on the footy; collect handsomely at the end of August; and punt my way through the finals, all the way to The Winx Plate, with filthy bookies money.
If a pessimist was to assess my strategy, they could say also that I can't lose before about May.
I follow the rule to never ever back us at odds on.
But I started to find that the joy of an odds on win was dismissed, cause I hadn't made any money.
The bookies were ruining my fun. I'm sure I'm not alone here.
So this year, I'm having my entire seasons budget on us to make the 8 at $4.
I think this will do several things; enable me to revel in all wins almost equally; focus more on the footy; collect handsomely at the end of August; and punt my way through the finals, all the way to The Winx Plate, with filthy bookies money.
If a pessimist was to assess my strategy, they could say also that I can't lose before about May.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
spook said:
Uh-huh. They're all betting it for now.
easy said:
That's a very good rule, e,t.
On the bet for the eight.
It's a wise bet. We're at worst even money IMO.
I won't take it because it's not enough overs for me.
The other thing is we usually start slowly. And even though we've had, by our standards, a very advanced pre season by betting on the eight now you are actually betting that we will start well. Because if we don't we'll drift. That is where the value is in the then $4, now $3.50-3.75.
FWIW I think we probably will start well this year. But I don't know how well. How many children will we play from Round One? I need that information. If we play the entire mosquito fleet (and I hope we do) we may struggle early. But we'll improve and have a higher ceiling over all. More chances to bet. At odds. It's not out of the question that we play the mosquitoes early and just ambush the competition. If you've backed the eight you want this because your bet is a certainty from here. And those who watched will miss the price.
But even then there will be other prices.
What price will we be to beat Geelong or North Melbourne this year? To smash either? If our mosquito fleet is up and running I think we'll get a hold of at least one of them. They're coached by the same bloke who massively over structures. Very vulnerable to mosquito fleets. We'll chop them to pieces.
Fact is, if I had a thousand sitting there idle it would already be on at $4 odd. But I have to make my bank work harder this year. And I'm at my best when I do.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Dyer'ere said:
yep. youve got to have a consistent angle.
Youre right, Im betting on us having a fast start. I'm betting on us being near 5-0 when we go to Adelaide. And we'll be $1.80 for the 8. Win over there, and we'll be behind only AFLGWS and the SCG in many markets. If we can graft a dozen wins by
round 16, I'll be able to dance like theres noone watching.
and yeah, there'll be some rich pickings during the season. Hawks were our *smile* at the height of their powers. As they wane, theres money to be made, as the bookies are often slowest to adjust to waynes.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Dyer'ere said:
very interesting.
Im pretty sure the SC will balance experience, hardness, speed and youth.
The refreshing thing about my long game, is I dont have to punt the game, which had very little upside from a punting angle.
The only angle I see is +39.5, and in round 1 chaos, that would not be a prudent bet.
remind me to tell you about my 'ratchetted margin' strategy sometime.
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easy_tiger
Guest
easy said:
Luckily I can punt imprudently from time to time :hihi
good signs, to get up by a half head in R1.
Right - lets get this thread cranking with more winners.
Fremantle at $2.50 H2H at home to Geelong today. Add some more to cover the +9.5 pt line.
Let's go.
Fremantle at $2.50 H2H at home to Geelong today. Add some more to cover the +9.5 pt line.
Let's go.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
Giardiasis said:
If you can think it, you can bet on it G.
Leysy Days said:
Round 1 is like playing the pokies leysy.
But favourites lose R1 more often than not i reckon
