2024 - List Management | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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2024 - List Management

Ok.

Worst group of under 23 players in the League. I doubt anyone would argue against that. It’s a given. Must be addressed.

Plenty of tall players on the list but it is also hard to see where the quality is- Lynch, Nank, Balta, Broad, Gibcus when fit, did I miss anyone? Big question mark on Gibcus, missing almost two complete years of football in your first three is not going to fill anyone with confidence. Apart from Balta, everyone else is nearing the end of their careers.

What about the rest? Fawcett, Gray, Blight, Bauer and Lefau are all relatively untried and need opportunity. They need to be given opportunities and turned over in the next two years if they don’t progress. So there is a short term project. Find out if any of these guys can get in the team and stay there for more than five game stints.

Koschitzke, Young and Miller are strugglers. They are the sorts of players who get a game in a weak team and are jettisoned when the team starts to improve. But they may have roles to play for a year or two. Not going to be in the AFL when they are 30.

Ryan? He’s tall. Struggles with the cut and thrust of playing top level football against desperate defenders. Needs to improve his marking. He looks so much better when he clunks a couple. Despite his height is he big enough to compete in the ruck? If Nank goes down with injury he will get an extended stint in the ruck and we find out quickly.

OHB and Collina? Long shots. At least OHB has played a few decent VFL games.

That’s a lot of players and a lot of question marks. I wouldn’t add more than two talls this year because it will make the group unmanageable but gee, I would be looking at key position and ruck free agents over the next two or three years. Too many of these players won’t be on the list in three years so there is a lot of work to do.

Our midfield is too one paced and needs speed and class. There is Taranto, Hopper, Ross, Prestia, Dow, Ralphsmith and McAuliffe. That’s not enough. Ralphsmith is the only one who shows a bit of toe but he can be a headless chook too. Campbell, Clarke, Sonsie and Banks need opportunity and extended runs in the seniors but we are well short of a decent midfield group. I would go hard at midfielders this year. Especially the players with a point of difference, speed, class, ball-winning, height and size. Apart from Prestia, all we have are 183 to 188 cm lean build types. We need bulls and racehorses.

Interestingly, the defence is ok. Surprisingly. They were under pressure all year. Smith, Brown and Trezise need more opportunity.

The forward line? Mansell is another struggler, Rioli could be good but could also be a bust. Struggles to get enough of the ball but at least he is quick and defensive minded. Green needs opportunity.

McIntosh might play a role during mid winter when younger players wilt but will be the first to retire at the end of the season.

If we draft 7 players, I would look at 4 mids, 2 talls and 1 classy small.

And at least one more of each at the next draft. And I would be looking very closely at free agents. We need a lot of players, especially 22 and under. Hopefully several of these are at other clubs right now.
 
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RFC's playing stocks are real low atm. We have nothing in the average and above average category going forward. Zip elite. To be fair to Taranto he is a starting mid and average? Who can we bank going forward?

Elite. Above average. Average. Below average. All valuable stocks. Then fringe and below the level. In role.

While we have no stocks at all should we bank many average stocks or roll the dice on elites? We aim high IMO.

*I prefer safe bets.*

Don't bet.

We can all agree on this - RFC has no playing stocks to speak of going forward.

Do you want eight bankable average players in tis draft? Or three elites and five busts? What would you prefer? The percentage play is to go for elites. Busts are dime a dozen.
Two schools:
  • Play It Safe Strategy-Without Ever Acquiring Kings (P!SS-WEAK for short). Modest Expectations; Elect Konservatively; This Is My Ideal Draft (MEEK; TIMID). Bank Ordinary Guys; Avoid Very Extreme-Range Athletes: Good Enough (BOG AVERAGE).

    OR

  • Aim High, Every Roughie Or Class Onballer Must Exhibit Superior Attributes; Less Ordinary Nobodies, Guys! (A HERO COMES ALONG).
I'm taking the pi55, but I'm with you. Nineteenth is no time to be conservative.
 
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I think you need to get your reading glasses on. What bit of if we are going to go down the cheap arse route of late picks you really have to load up and take plenty did you not see.. What is it again one in ten or some such thing after pick 40.
we have not done that and loaded up with numbers until last year. We treat late picks like early picks and have taken few for gods knows how long until last year..

I think it becomes pretty clear when you look at the picks we have used that we have not done either route well.
We have used few or only the odd decent pick here or there on kpp's and have only really looked to load up on them with later picks last year .
I think i have been going on about Jacks replacement since 2017 and big Toms since we traded for him.

As for my list strategy what this year or what it has been for ages now.. I think what i would like us to do is pretty clear. It has been for years.

I'm pretty sure i have mentioned who i want us to draft not just this year have argued strongly about delisting more, using all 8 nd picks, favour keeping all of our picks, hoped we would keep a few later picks ' keep open a few list spots for a dfa player or two This and much more i have regularly posted about. you only need to put your reading glasses on.

Have said tall defenders are not a priority atm or this year, not if Balta is settled in defense. Gibcus and Balta should be the backbone of our defense for years to come.
I have questioned Young, Miller, and to a lesser extent Blight just got in the door. atm they look like good vfl players but borderline afl standard thats what happens with most late nd and rookie picks.. We should have an eye on drafting a quality kpd as soon as next year because one of those three will show they have to go if they have not already. Young and Miller i would be looking for an upgrade of sorts.At least they are big bodied and can play if need be i dont believe they are the long term future.

Kpf situation is dire even with the numbers we have finally got. There really is only Lynch who is 32 and we needed to be looking for his replacement years ago, that is what succession planning is.
Who else is there, Kossie fgs give me a break. He was a stop gap because there was no one else. yep great succession planning that. get Kossie in because JR has retired.
Lefau good vfl borderline AFL. Gray 20yo msd what are the odds again. Bauer msd ditto. Fawcett pick 43 its a latish pick but may work out again what are the odds of late picks making it one in how many again.
at least there are some numbers.
If you actually believe we have done well and have had a great succession plan in place well more fool you imo. We have failed in two key areas Mids and key forwards

Lol the list of mids we have. Ross, Dow. Taranto and Hopper who we had to trade for out of dire need Prestia 32 yo prestia McAuliffe and Sonsie.
It doesn't get any more run down.

No one can sit there and say we have done well with our succession planning because that is so obviously untrue that it smacks of outright disingenuity . If its not being disingenuous it is head in the sand stuff.
The simple truth is we do not get everything right but boy if someone points this out they are treated like lepers.

We just came off the worst season in our history but hey we have not got a thing wrong sheesh.

The forward line is an issue no doubt. But what other teams have elite KPF's?

Geelong - Yes
Brisbane - Not now
Sydney - No elite KPF
Melbourne - Nup
West Coast - ?
Freeo - No
Port - Potential?
Adelaide - Like us, one past his prime (one with promise?)
North - Yes
GC - Is King2 elite?
GWS - No
Hawthorn - Not convinced
Essendon - Lol
Collingwood - HaHaHa
Saints - Is King1 elite?
Dogs - Yes

Just thinking about it elite KPFs seem very hard to come by.
 
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We aimed for ongoing list refreshment while regularly playing finals, like Sydney and Geelong. We had to shift gears.

The 2021 draft was ground zero in hindsight on a rebuild that should take at least 7 years, and the 2024 draft will reinforce it.

If we're looking to the past as a template for the future, then we'd love to secure a core of 4 elites (2 mids, 1 forward, 1 back). Not that the past predicts the future.

Gibcus ticks one of those boxes, we think. First pick = elite back. Beautiful! The other 4 were flankers or non-hybrids, so they're not core building blocks. Fair enough that late in the draft.

Pick 1 is a chance to tick a second box.

We then have 7 other selections this year, along with more next year, to tick the remaining two boxes. Then Tassie forces us to think outside the box.

We'll know by 2029 if we're on the cusp. There's time to fill in the gaps. The previous core of elite building blocks provided evidence by:

- Jack won a Coleman in year 5
- Trent won a Brownlow in year 5
- Dusty won a Brownlow in year 7
- Rance played almost every game from year 3 onwards, but became a core elite in year 9 (2016)
 
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Ok.

Worst group of under 23 players in the League. I doubt anyone would argue against that. It’s a given. Must be addressed.

Plenty of tall players on the list but it is also hard to see where the quality is- Lynch, Nank, Balta, Broad, Gibcus when fit, did I miss anyone? Big question mark on Gibcus, missing almost two complete years of football in your first three is not going to fill anyone with confidence. Apart from Balta, everyone else is nearing the end of their careers.

What about the rest? Fawcett, Gray, Blight, Bauer and Lefau are all relatively untried and need opportunity. They need to be given opportunities and turned over in the next two years if they don’t progress. So there is a short term project. Find out if any of these guys can get in the team and stay there for more than five game stints.

Koschitzke, Young and Miller are strugglers. They are the sorts of players who get a game in a weak team and are jettisoned when the team starts to improve. But they may have roles to play for a year or two. Not going to be in the AFL when they are 30.

Ryan? He’s tall. Struggles with the cut and thrust of playing top level football against desperate defenders. Needs to improve his marking. He looks so much better when he clunks a couple. Despite his height is he big enough to compete in the ruck? If Nank goes down with injury he will get an extended stint in the ruck and we find out quickly.

OHB and Collina? Long shots. At least OHB has played a few decent VFL games.

That’s a lot of players and a lot of question marks. I wouldn’t add more than two talls this year because it will make the group unmanageable but gee, I would be looking at key position and ruck free agents over the next two or three years. Too many of these players won’t be on the list in three years so there is a lot of work to do.

Our midfield is too one paced and needs speed and class. There is Taranto, Hopper, Ross, Prestia, Dow, Ralphsmith and McAuliffe. That’s not enough. Ralphsmith is the only one who shows a bit of toe but he can be a headless chook too. Campbell, Clarke, Sonsie and Banks need opportunity and extended runs in the seniors but we are well short of a decent midfield group. I would go hard at midfielders this year. Especially the players with a point of difference, speed, class, ball-winning, height and size. Apart from Prestia, all we have are 183 to 188 cm lean build types. We need bulls and racehorses.

Interestingly, the defence is ok. Surprisingly. They were under pressure all year. Smith, Brown and Trezise need more opportunity.

The forward line? Mansell is another struggler, Rioli could be good but could also be a bust. Struggles to get enough of the ball but at least he is quick and defensive minded. Green needs opportunity.

McIntosh might play a role during mid winter when younger players wilt but will be the first to retire at the end of the season.

If we draft 7 players, I would look at 4 mids, 2 talls and 1 classy small.

And at least one more of each at the next draft. And I would be looking very closely at free agents. We need a lot of players, especially 22 and under. Hopefully several of these are at other clubs right now.
great analysis of the list. Spot on
 
Two schools:
  • Play It Safe Strategy-Without Ever Acquiring Kings (P!SS-WEAK for short). Modest Expectations; Elect Konservatively; This Is My Ideal Draft (MEEK; TIMID). Bank Ordinary Guys; Avoid Very Extreme-Range Athletes: Good Enough (BOG AVERAGE).

    OR

  • Aim High, Every Roughie Or Class Onballer Must Exhibit Superior Attributes; Less Ordinary Nobodies, Guys! (A HERO COMES ALONG).
I'm taking the pi55, but I'm with you. Nineteenth is no time to be conservative.

What schools would Dusty, Trent, Jack, and Alex fall into? I don't understand what these schools mean
 
The forward line is an issue no doubt. But what other teams have elite KPF's?

Geelong - Yes
Brisbane - Not now
Sydney - No elite KPF
Melbourne - Nup
West Coast - ?
Freeo - No
Port - Potential?
Adelaide - Like us, one past his prime (one with promise?)
North - Yes
GC - Is King2 elite?
GWS - No
Hawthorn - Not convinced
Essendon - Lol
Collingwood - HaHaHa
Saints - Is King1 elite?
Dogs - Yes

Just thinking about it elite KPFs seem very hard to come by.

My theory is the traditional KPF (or any single focal point) became redundant as the game became full-time.

This sport features 44 players running freely over a combined total of like ~500kms per game. There's 18 groups of full-time coaches working tirelessly to tilt the odds in their favour. What have they discovered?

They've found success by timing their deployment of running power to best exploit space on a 2D plane. The numbers game. Team-wide defensive running. Limit their options. What contest? We'll solve your 1v1 with a 2v1.

How reliably can you mark the ball when the opposition has ~250kms of running power to control the numbers advantage?

They pressure the kicker too. Nothing is clean, nothing is centremetre perfect. Deep in the 3rd on GF day, you just want to run hard into a space that the opposition isn't yet occupying. Space is captured by running and most of it exists on the X-Y axis, almost none of it exists in the Z axis. You get like 5cms of free space to work with. Cool story bro. Who cares if they've got Tom Hawkins standing tall in the F50... go on, bomb it in. We're pushing you as you kick it and we've got the numbers advantage to mop up. And off we go.
 
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Yes agree with above.
Its why we need to draft 2 kpf..one tall like Whitlock to contest and bring the ball to ground...and one more mobile but still strong on the lead and with good hands like Shanahan or Faull or Armstrong.
Add to them marking mids ie FOS and Lalor and Langford...and finally small speedy forwards ie Berry or Hannaford or Dattoli.
All the parts are there for the taking this draft.
If we can have ..1 2 6,10 and 11 it would be great but 1,6,10,11 and 18 still does it.
 
The forward line is an issue no doubt. But what other teams have elite KPF's?

Geelong - Yes
Brisbane - Not now
Sydney - No elite KPF
Melbourne - Nup
West Coast - ?
Freeo - No
Port - Potential?
Adelaide - Like us, one past his prime (one with promise?)
North - Yes
GC - Is King2 elite?
GWS - No
Hawthorn - Not convinced
Essendon - Lol
Collingwood - HaHaHa
Saints - Is King1 elite?
Dogs - Yes

Just thinking about it elite KPFs seem very hard to come by.
Elite ? Difficult concept but there are some good to very good ones and some promising ones.

West coast have Allan and waterman
Freo have Treacy and Amiss
Adelaide have Thilthorpe and Fogarty
GWS have Hogan and Cadman
Melbourne have Van Rooyen
GCS have Walter and Andrew potentially
Essendon have Caddy
Brisbane have Morris

There are a lot of young KPF around actually. We need at least one
 
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We also had a plan, Chol and CCJ. We also expected some free agents to come along, but that plan backfired when Dimma screwed us in the butt and they stayed at their existing clubs ...plan A and plan b have backfired. Thanks for the weather report, but it's pissing down with hail. Pretty sure I'd figured that out.
I think you need to get your reading glasses on.
...No one can sit there and say we have done well with our succession planning because that is so obviously untrue that it smacks of outright disingenuity . If its not being disingenuous it is head in the sand stuff.
The simple truth is we do not get everything right but boy if someone points this out they are treated like lepers.
We just came off the worst season in our history but hey we have not got a thing wrong sheesh.
Mate, you should just change your name to Yesterday's Man. That's all you're focussed on.

As for needing glasses or being able to pay attention, comprehending whatever it is you're trying to say....above is the people's exhibit A. I bolded the font to try make it easier for you.
 
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As for my list strategy what this year or what it has been for ages now.. I think what i would like us to do is pretty clear. It has been for years.
Seeing also you have a date of joining PRE on 20th March 2024, what was the old profile you had? That way I can see what you were commenting on all those years ago.
 
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RFC's playing stocks are real low atm. We have nothing in the average and above average category going forward. Zip elite. To be fair to Taranto he is a starting mid and average? Who can we bank going forward?

Elite. Above average. Average. Below average. All valuable stocks. Then fringe and below the level. In role.

While we have no stocks at all should we bank many average stocks or roll the dice on elites? We aim high IMO.

*I prefer safe bets.*

Don't bet.

We can all agree on this - RFC has no playing stocks to speak of going forward.

Do you want eight bankable average players in tis draft? Or three elites and five busts? What would you prefer? The percentage play is to go for elites. Busts are dime a dozen.
I'd rate the players something like this.....
A+Elite, match winner, all Australian potential
AGood, consistent high performer
B+Solid performer, mostly consistent.
BSolid performer, inconsistent or no apparent growth left
C+Role player, may have potential for growth
CRole player, battling to hold place in 22 each week, no apparent growth left
DDeveloping player - 1-3 years of playing experience, has potential

And a very, very rough (eg haven't looked at stats, just "gut feel") so these would no doubt be up to debate and I'd likely change em myself I did any real homework.

Position18-21Rating22-24Rating25-27Rating28-30Rating31+Rating
Small BacksKaleb SmithDJayden ShortB
Medium BacksTom BrownC+Nathan BroadB+
James TreziseC+Nick VlaustinA
Key BacksJosh GibcusDJacob BlightDNoah BaltaB+
Tylar YoungC+
Ben MillerB
Inside MidsKane McAuliffeDThompson DowCTim TarantoAJacob HopperB+Dion PrestiaB+
Jack RossB
Outside MidsSeth CampbellDHugo RalphsmithC+Kamdyn McIntoshC
Sam BanksC+
Tyler SonsieC+
Small ForwardsJudson ClarkeDMaurice RioliC+Ryan MansellB
Steely GreenD
Medium ForwardsJacob BauerC
Tall ForwardsLiam FawcettDJacob KoschitzkeCMykelti LefauDTom LynchB
Campbell GrayD
RucksSamson RyanC+Mate Colina (Cat B)DToby NankervisB+
Oliver Hayes-Brown (Cat B)D
 
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I'd rate the players something like this.....
A+Elite, match winner, all Australian potential
AGood, consistent high performer
B+Solid performer, mostly consistent.
BSolid performer, inconsistent or no apparent growth left
C+Role player, may have potential for growth
CRole player, battling to hold place in 22 each week, no apparent growth left
DDeveloping player - 1-3 years of playing experience, has potential

And a very, very rough (eg haven't looked at stats, just "gut feel") so these would no doubt be up to debate and I'd likely change em myself I did any real homework.

Position18-21Rating22-24Rating25-27Rating28-30Rating31+Rating
Small BacksKaleb SmithDJayden ShortB
Medium BacksTom BrownC+Nathan BroadB+
James TreziseC+Nick VlaustinA
Key BacksJosh GibcusDJacob BlightDNoah BaltaB+
Tylar YoungC+
Ben MillerB
Inside MidsKane McAuliffeDThompson DowCTim TarantoAJacob HopperB+Dion PrestiaB+
Jack RossB
Outside MidsSeth CampbellDHugo RalphsmithC+Kamdyn McIntoshC
Sam BanksC+
Tyler SonsieC+
Small ForwardsJudson ClarkeDMaurice RioliC+Ryan MansellB
Steely GreenD
Medium ForwardsJacob BauerC
Tall ForwardsLiam FawcettDJacob KoschitzkeCMykelti LefauDTom LynchB
Campbell GrayD
RucksSamson RyanC+Mate Colina (Cat B)DToby NankervisB+
Oliver Hayes-Brown (Cat B)D
Reckon ya might have over rated a few of our mega injured mature players, simply because they struggle to get on the park fit n have some influence, but fairly accurate overall n nicely done. Purely shows we're deep in *smile* in almost all areas of the ground n desperately need to hit this years draft out of the park.
 
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