2024 Draft Thread

[Smoking Aces]

I am still bewildered why the junior watchers on this site have barely mentioned Smilie.

Is he the worse number 1 since Marc Murphy?

 

[Redford]

I am still bewildered why the junior watchers on this site have barely mentioned Smilie.

Is he the worse number 1 since Marc Murphy?

He’s been mentioned a fair bit.

He looked very casual yesterday. Passable game but nothing to write home about.

At AFL level, is he gonna be able to push himself aerobically like the Cripps, Taranto’s, Walsh’s of this world ? If so, will be a super star. If not….well….

 

[Smoking Aces]

He’s been mentioned a fair bit.

He looked very casual yesterday. Passable game but nothing to write home about.

At AFL level, is he gonna be able to push himself aerobically like the Cripps, Taranto’s, Walsh’s of this world ? If so, will be a super star. If not….well….

Maybe he is tanking? I am being serious here. Number 1 is a poisoned chalice knowing Norf will hold that pick.

 

[Don’t Argue]

Damaging ? 19 of his disposals where handballs,and only 57 meters gained .
We can do better.

Not a lot of talk about Moraes.
Thoughts for our 2nd pick??


6. Christian Moraes
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro

A dynamic 183cm midfielder, Moraes is a running machine who covers the ground extremely well. He works hard both sides of the ball and can be dangerous around goals when he pushes forward, evidenced by his nine goals from his first three games for the Ranges this year. In the thick of the action, Moraes is tough, has clean hands and brings real composure. He had an up-and-down few weeks after copping a heavy knock during an AFL Academy game in April, but has still averaged 25.7 disposals, 5.3 marks, four clearances and 7.5 score involvements across six Coates Talent League games this year.

 

[Redford]

Not a lot of talk about Moraes.
Thoughts for our 2nd pick??


6. Christian Moraes
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro

A dynamic 183cm midfielder, Moraes is a running machine who covers the ground extremely well. He works hard both sides of the ball and can be dangerous around goals when he pushes forward, evidenced by his nine goals from his first three games for the Ranges this year. In the thick of the action, Moraes is tough, has clean hands and brings real composure. He had an up-and-down few weeks after copping a heavy knock during an AFL Academy game in April, but has still averaged 25.7 disposals, 5.3 marks, four clearances and 7.5 score involvements across six Coates Talent League games this year.

Kicks like a mule.

 

[jokershoppe]

Excellent summation of 2024 best 5 key forwards.

 

[Cooper O'Reilly]

Excellent summation of 2024 best 5 key forwards.

Seriously poor highlights picked. Surely they could have got footage of the players doing constructive things. Anyway of those “highlights” Thomas Simms looked the pick of the bunch and had a really good athletic profile

 

[Tiggy Train]

Smilie is ready to go as he the body size and right weight to height ratio. I hope he hangs onto pick three, but I doubt it. Golly some of the boys will need to put on some muscle based on their physical stats on page one.

 

[momentai]

Our first could easily be pick 2.
Or 18 if I'm dreaming.
would you trade our future first for GC 8?

The brisbane 6 is up for grabs but i think we can get that with our late picks

How late?
Based on the value of all of our picks as before this round and including an end of 2nd for free agent compensation for the transfer of Graham, I believe we might have to give up all but our first and two seconds (ours and Freo’s) to do a deal with Brisbane for their first, those picks valued at approx 2100 and their pick 7, at 2600. Leaving us 2, 7, 20 and 30.

Is that where we are?

 

[TigerMasochist]

How late?
Based on the value of all of our picks as before this round and including an end of 2nd for free agent compensation for the transfer of Graham, I believe we might have to give up all but our first and two seconds (ours and Freo’s) to do a deal with Brisbane for their first, those picks valued at approx 2100 and their pick 7, at 2600. Leaving us 2, 7, 20 and 30.

Is that where we are?

Pick 7 is worth around 1600 points not 2600. So that'd save us some decent pick value. Not considering the prospect of Bakes leaving and some extra decent pick value coming back to us????

 

[momentai]

Thanks TM. Of course 1600. That’s my question. Would we have to discount our give as much as by 2100 to 1600 or like to secure a pick 7 from Brisbane?

 

[tigerdell]

Thanks TM. Of course 1600. That’s my question. Would we have to discount our give as much as by 2100 to 1600 or like to secure a pick 7 from Brisbane?

Ashcroft likely bid in top 3.
Lets face it if Bris don't trade with us we bid on him!
His brother went pick 2.
So roughly that's the value Bris need to have in hand, less a 20% discount. But that is pick 5. If they don't have sufficient points their 2025 first rounder is pushed back those places, lets assume roughly 2 spots. So they'll want plenty of points.

Currently they hold pick 6.
Thats enough to get Ashcroft.

So why trade?

In 2022 they traded out 15 (their 1st) for later picks plus 3 future picks (2x 2nd 1x3rd)
Plus a whole lotta trades. But the BL v Cats trade is insightful.
25 traded for 38, 48, 55 and Cats future 2nd and future 4th.
On its own 25 v 38, 48, 55 is unbalanced, the Cats paid more (200+ points) to get 25.
Plus 2 futures.

So for pick 6 Bris will want roughly 200 points extra and future picks.

Can we do it?
32, 40, 41, 50 and 58 is over 100 points extra.
But Bris don't really gain from that.
SO its a future pick. Our 2nd could be pick 20 which is a little high. And the 3rd too low.
Maybe a swap of future 2nds and we hope the lions continue to nosedive.

Can we keep pick 32?
Not really as we dont have enough points to cover pick 6 with 40 41 50 58 69 71.


So the upshot is we can trade with BL and get 6, but send out the 2nd n 3rd round picks and a f2nd.
We end with 2, 6, 20, 69 and 71.

 

[momentai]

Ashcroft likely bid in top 3.
Lets face it if Bris don't trade with us we bid on him!
His brother went pick 2.
So roughly that's the value Bris need to have in hand, less a 20% discount. But that is pick 5. If they don't have sufficient points their 2025 first rounder is pushed back those places, lets assume roughly 2 spots. So they'll want plenty of points.

Currently they hold pick 6.
Thats enough to get Ashcroft.

So why trade?

In 2022 they traded out 15 (their 1st) for later picks plus 3 future picks (2x 2nd 1x3rd)
Plus a whole lotta trades. But the BL v Cats trade is insightful.
25 traded for 38, 48, 55 and Cats future 2nd and future 4th.
On its own 25 v 38, 48, 55 is unbalanced, the Cats paid more (200+ points) to get 25.
Plus 2 futures.

So for pick 6 Bris will want roughly 200 points extra and future picks.

Can we do it?
32, 40, 41, 50 and 58 is over 100 points extra.
But Bris don't really gain from that.
SO its a future pick. Our 2nd could be pick 20 which is a little high. And the 3rd too low.
Maybe a swap of future 2nds and we hope the lions continue to nosedive.

Can we keep pick 32?
Not really as we dont have enough points to cover pick 6 with 40 41 50 58 69 71.


So the upshot is we can trade with BL and get 6, but send out the 2nd n 3rd round picks and a f2nd.
We end with 2, 6, 20, 69 and 71.

Wow that is informative. Thanks for that. Don’t mind trading a future 2nd to get us over the line on 6, and those late picks might allow us to pick up a couple of promising vfl upgrades.

 

[tigerdell]

Wow that is informative. Thanks for that. Don’t mind trading a future 2nd to get us over the line on 6, and those late picks might allow us to pick up a couple of promising vfl upgrades.

If we trade a future 2nd I'd hope we get theur future 2nd back.
But yeah getting 6 would be very handy

 

[tigerdell]

A few other teams can do this year too
Fremantle, Geelong, Giants and Sydney.
So its not going to be a lowball deal

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Langford having a great game.

Langford & Lalor for the RFC please

 

[momentai]

If we trade a future 2nd I'd hope we get theur future 2nd back.
But yeah getting 6 would be very handy

Saw that. Swapping future 2nds sounds like a bit of extra entertainment as well.

 

[eZyT]

We end with 2, 6, 20, 69 and 71.

That hand would be nation building.

Have you factored in the Bakes picks?

 

[DuD_Delist]

Our first could easily be pick 2.
Or 18 if I'm dreaming.
would you trade our future first for GC 8?

The brisbane 6 is up for grabs but i think we can get that with our late picks

04 draft all over again.
Big gamble though.
If we did go down that path i'm hoping its the Hawks strike rate.(Buddy/Roughy/Lewis.)

 

[tigerdell]

That hand would be nation building.

Have you factored in the Bakes picks?

No. Thats only what we have right now.
Any trades eg Bakes, JG would be included