2023 Draft Thread.

[bullus_hit]

Interesting Phantom Draft. Some say this draft is weak, I don't agree, I think its just different. I've only watched the juniors more closely in the last 3 years, especially the last 2. This years draft is stronger than last years. I know its only one indicator, and an early one, but a quick look at last years and there are only 4 players from pick 20 to pick 40 to have made their seniors debut. (16 in the top 20).

Most years, and last years, it feels like their is an even downward trend-line in quality. It doesn't feel like that this year, there is standard high quality to 8-10, then a pretty even spread from 12 to 40. So if you have a pick from 11-20 you might feel you're not getting value compared to other years, but from then-on you are, particularly 30-40. Last year, I felt there was not much after 30, even 25, this year there are more players who raise the eyebrows after 25.

Another way of saying it is normally the gun prospects are top 10, very good 10-20, the good 20-30, the OK/ speculators 30-50. This year the gun prospects are top 10 as usual, then theres a pool of good from 11-40, so quality from 10-20 is down, 30-40 is up. I'm speaking here in terms of how a young player's future prospects are valued prior to the draft, not how they actually work out.

Just one enthusiastic amateur's impression anyway.

It's the type of year which will showcase the best talent scouts in the industry, there's a few like Leake & Windsor who might go 25+ in any other year but if you are in the market for rucks it's a relative smorgasbord with 5 players all draftable - Read, Edwards, Green, Goad & Visentini. I would have absolutely no issues with Richmond using one pick in this area. Whether or not Samson makes it is irrelevant, we need to start planning for the post Nankervis era and the sooner the better.

The other aspect to consider is upside, Moir was spoken about in the same breath as Duursma only 6 months ago, he's had a few niggles this year but you don't just lose talent overnight, it's a risk worth taking in a draft so even.

I also think players like Morris, Wreckert & Ruud need to be considered with a latish pick, they are all around the 191cm mark but could grow, the difference between Morris & Caddy isn't huge in my opinion, certainly not 40 spots in the draft and this could also represent an area of value if we choose to grab a contested marking specialist.

It ain't all doom and gloom, we just need to tap the areas of strength with these mid table picks and hopefully land one or two core players.

 

[tigersnake]

It's the type of year which will showcase the best talent scouts in the industry, there's a few like Leake & Windsor who might go 25+ in any other year but if you are in the market for rucks it's a relative smorgasbord with 5 players all draftable - Read, Edwards, Green, Goad & Visentini I would have absolutely no issues with Richmond using one pick in this area. Whether or not Samson makes it is irrelevant, we need to start planning for the post Nankervis era and the sooner the better.

The other aspect to consider is upside, Moir was spoken about in the same breath as Duursma only 6 months ago, he's had a few niggles this year but you don't just lose talent overnight, it's a risk worth taking in a draft so even.

I also think players like Morris, Wreckard & Ruud need to be considered with a latish pick, they are all around the 191cm mark but could grow, the difference between Morris & Caddy isn't huge in my opinion, certainly not 40 spots in the draft and this could also represent an area of value if we choose to grab a contested marking specialist.

It ain't all doom and gloom, we just need to tap the areas of strength with these mid table picks and hopefully land one or two core players.

To put my long-winded post in a nutshell, there are 20, maybe 25 players who could get drafted at pick 25.

Its not all doom and gloom, if you had to choose a year when your first pick was 30-odd, this would be it.

 

[T-Shirt Tommy]

I've said it before but just how kissed on the *smile* are the Western Bulldogs?

Heaps of father son picks over the years, got JUH before the rule changes kicked in, and yet another father son this year.

 

[mrposhman]

To put my long-winded post in a nutshell, there are 20, maybe 25 players who could get drafted at pick 25.

Its not all doom and gloom, if you had to choose a year when your first pick was 30-odd, this would be it.

Yeah and the data from most phantoms / draft rankings basically indicate exactly what you say.

Once you get past the 1st 20 or so picks, there is huge volatility that we see in where players could be drafted. Most picks have a range of at least 20 picks in between where 1 phantom / rankings list has players and where the other extreme is. For example Schoenmakers has a range of 13 to 374. I'd be surprised if there were many other drafts where 1 person picks a player in the first 13 and other so low. Similar with ZZ top, many people rate him, others don't (range of 15-49), George Stevens another one (14-44). So many have large draft ranges that it seems once you get past the first 15-20 picks, its a bit of a free for all, as every list manager potentially might have very very different draft ranges. Que a lot of list managers using the phrase "we couldn't believe he was still there at our pick".

 

[tigersnake]

Yeah and the data from most phantoms / draft rankings basically indicate exactly what you say.

Once you get past the 1st 20 or so picks, there is huge volatility that we see in where players could be drafted. Most picks have a range of at least 20 picks in between where 1 phantom / rankings list has players and where the other extreme is. For example Schoenmakers has a range of 13 to 374. I'd be surprised if there were many other drafts where 1 person picks a player in the first 13 and other so low. Similar with ZZ top, many people rate him, others don't (range of 15-49), George Stevens another one (14-44). So many have large draft ranges that it seems once you get past the first 15-20 picks, its a bit of a free for all, as every list manager potentially might have very very different draft ranges. Que a lot of list managers using the phrase "we couldn't believe he was still there at our pick".

Yeah, without doing the work you have, Lual 20-38, Collard 16-32, Morris 25-50, Freijah, Jiath, Cleary, Graham, there's a stack.

 

[Brodders17]

For example Schoenmakers has a range of 13 to 374.

That is extreme, so he could go anywhere in the first 20 rounds??

 

[bullus_hit]

That is extreme, so he could go anywhere in the first 20 rounds??

He served his punishment and responded well, those calling him a culture killer are forgetting he's a teenager who made an error in judgement and has since knuckled down to produce some good football. My main concern would be the defensive efforts but I don't see any reason he can't improve in this area.

 

[Jonesracing82]

Wonder if GC would entertain us trading pick 29 and those picks in the 60s for one of their picks in the mid 20s? I know those will get eaten up anyway after bids but if we can move up as much as we can it’ll be handy. Really hope we keep a full suite of picks for next year, unless we give them ports 4th rounder or something crap like that

I wanna keep that so we can death ride Corn next yr

 

[Jonesracing82]

I think thats what we'd be trying.

24 would be ideal (gets us in front of both Carlton and Geelong).

29, 65 and 68 add upto 802 points. 24 is 785, so if they did that it would be a bit of a goodwill trade too.
Maybe we'd look to drop 41 back a little bit but at the moment GC don't have any picks in that area.
Maybe other teams will be looking to trade up, GC at the moment will be taking a deficit into 2024 due to Graham, so I think they will be trying to minimise that as much as possible, probably a deficit of about 300 points right now, so I suspect they would want to reduce that to a max of 50 so that they stand a chance of not dropping at all in next years draft once that comes in as it will likely come off their 2nd round pick.

Personally I reckon this trade works for everyone.

Brisbane - In 41, Out 51 and 54 - They then have 30, 39 and 41
Gold Coast - In 29, 54, 65 and 68, Out 24 - Gain in points of 237 - almost wipes out the deficit as stated above
Richmond - In 24 and 51. Out 29, 41, 65 and 68

Sure we drop by a few spots between 41 and 51, but there are also a number of picks that will be lost in this area due to bidding.

44 - Hawks, 45 - Swans, 47 - Hawks, 48 - Dogs, 49 - Hawks, 50 - Dogs will all be lost in the draft, so we only really fall back 4 spots, and move up 3 in the 2nd. I reckon thats a good deal, gets us in front of Geelong and Carlton.

Deficit impacts from their 1st pick i'd have thought?

 

[Scoop]

There’s a reason their will be a record low draft picks.

We have two tickets in the lottery between 15-50.

 

[bullus_hit]

There’s a reason their will be a record low draft picks.

We have two tickets in the lottery between 15-50.

Shifting some of the risk into the rookie draft not such a bad move but I'd hazard a guess there will be some surprise packets when we revisit in 4 years.

 

[mrposhman]

Deficit impacts from their 1st pick i'd have thought?

Deficit comes off the pick in the future year that relates to the round where the bid was made.

 

[tigersnake]

There’s a reason their will be a record low draft picks.

Maybe, Numbers have been dropping, the trend is down, and think there are other reasons why. I'd have to check the numbers, will have a look when I can. Used to be 70+ players, then 60+, now heading for 50+. 59 last year. 55 or 6 predicted this year.

 

[TigerFurious]

Maybe, Numbers have been dropping, the trend is down, and think there are other reasons why. I'd have to check the numbers, will have a look when I can. Used to be 70+ players, then 60+, now heading for 50+. 59 last year. 55 or 6 predicted this year.

Yep, the trend is down and a likley reason is the supplemental selection period. Clubs get to try before they buy on players that would otherwise be taken with late draft picks. I haven’t looked at the data but my hunch is this has a greater success rate but it’s still early days.

 

[Ghost of 29]

Yep, the trend is down and a likley reason is the supplemental selection period. Clubs get to try before they buy on players that would otherwise be taken with late draft picks. I haven’t looked at the data but my hunch is this has a greater success rate but it’s still early days.

Was talking to a recruiter recently about this. Most clubs believe next year will be back up around 70 picks in the ND. There is a lot of holding onto kids on 1 yr deals, mainly the COVID kids, give them another chance.

 

[tigersnake]

Numbers of players drafted over last 10 years:

13-62
14-76
15-70
16-77
17-78
18-78
19-65
20-59
21-65
22-59
23-55 predicted

 

[bullus_hit]

Numbers of players drafted over last 10 years:

13-62
14-76
15-70
16-77
17-78
18-78
19-65
20-59
21-65
22-59
23-55 predicted

I think these numbers need to take into account covid related disruptions and shrinking list sizes, there's also mini drafts to factor in, mid season drafts have also encouraged clubs to defer decisions on the state leaguers. I'm also expecting a spike when Tasmania hit the scene. The real mark of quality will be stats like 200 gamers, AA players, premiership players and B&F winners.

 

[AstuteTiger]

PICK	CLUB		POINTS	NOTES

29	RICH		653

41

RICH

412

received from Port Adelaide in 2023, received from GWS in 2022, received from Collingwood in 2022

65

RICH

90

received from North Melbourne in 2023, received from Fremantle in 2022, received from Hawthorn in 2022

68	RICH		59

86	RICH		0

 

[Smoking Aces]

Fox Footy draft power rankings: The best 2023 AFL draft prospects ranked 1-50... and the clubs linked to them

Tassie’s third top-10 bolter as top 50 AFL Draft prospects revealed — plus who your club’s keen on

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[mrposhman]

So who are the players that posters DON'T want us to draft.

I'll start with 2: ZZ Top - I just don't really see it with him. George Stevens - Heavy and slow midfielder. Not really what we need with Hopper and Taranto in our midfield.