2021 Draft Thread

[Tony Braxton-Hicks]

Butler a different story. Quite amazing how different he is to Dan.

I'd appreciate some insight here, Red, as this thread moves so fast and I've missed any real insights into him.

 

[bullus_hit]

Some good vision of Alleer here, think his intercept ability is roughly comparable with Gibcus, maybe not from an overall production perspective but his ability to elevate very impressive.

 

[bengal tigers]

Just poring over his stats in TAC, 37 touches versus Eastern Ranges, 22 contested & 9 clearances in drizzly conditions, efficiency good. That is worthy of closer scrutiny, will see what I can dig up but any player who can execute their skill in the wet needs to be looked at closely.

Yeah l seen vision of that match,he's very good .
lm starting to think l might be even underselling this boy as my pick 15.

 

[bullus_hit]

Here's some more action.

The way I'm reading this situation is that it might be better to grab a KPD further down the order, if it means we can stitch up a tall midfielder. There's also more noise about Goater to Essendon which is disappointing, think we might need to go early if we want him.

9. Goater
15. Rachele
26. Taylor
28. Alleer

Quite like that composition, Rachele sliding unlikely but you never know. Might get lucky with Draper going a bit earlier.

 

[bullus_hit]

Yeah l seen vision of that match,he's very good .
lm starting to think l might be even underselling this boy as my pick 15.

Taylor vs McDonald, I am assuming you like McDonald better?

 

[jokershoppe]

I see a bit of Paddy Ryder, although Ryder was a genuine duel position player. I think the point with using high picks on rucks is firstly, they can easily be poached and you never realise the full value of a top 10 pick and secondly, A class rucks can be found later in the draft, Grundy (17), Gawn (34) & Darcy (38).

Spot on,Maric,Mummy,Jacobs,ccj,jolly,nankervis,all ended up at other clubs and Mac Andrews would be a certainty to leave for more opportunities after years of getting his body up to the level.

 

[jokershoppe]

Got to say ,this forum when it comes down to potential AFL junior talent is by far the best information on potential draftees,many of you really know what talent is out there,so much so that by nab draft time,feels like I know most the players,keep it up,well done to everyone.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

I see things differently Turk, although I'm yet to finalise my order I do see a drop off in talent around the 25 mark. Now if we are still 50/50 on using 38 & 40, then moving up 6 spots and bringing in 38 into play we are not weakening our draft hand, not to any great extent. Getting the balance right critical and this is the range where you typically get a decent chance at securing an A grade outside type. I think I want one player in this category.

Whilst i agree sometimes you need to pay a premium to pick up a premium player (like a callagahan) i just cannot see how a player would be worth giving up such a prime asset to pick up a player who is still speculative at #22.

We try so hard to get a good deal for players like Higgins/Cj but to then flick a pick in this range is just wasteful and not great business
players that will be available in the 20-30 range are players like McDonald,Taylor,Wilmot,Butler,Knevitt,Long,howes,brown etc

I think our talent identification team are very good with picks after 25 and rarely trade up when its that late and just take the next on our list
very risky reaching and sacrificing assets at this late in a draft.

 

[Spirit of Jack]

I see there is an article talking up Josh Sinn in The Age. The Victorian mids appear really deep this draft and there seem to be a few who had injury interruptions in addition to the COVID disruption. Both Sonsie and Sinn were supposedly touted as top five selections prior to this year - outside of all the names mentioned on this thread (loving this thread BTW) - I reckon it would be smart to grab a player of that class who has slipped with our second or third picks...

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Taylor vs McDonald, I am assuming you like McDonald better?

McDonald v Butler might be a better choice to make
also your thoughts on Erasmus still 17 years old and athletic traits and size also good prospects of being dual positional mid/fwd

 

[bengal tigers]

Taylor vs McDonald, I am assuming you like McDonald better?

Yeah ,l was just wasting a bit of time looking back at the vic trial match.
Macdonald was very good ,25disposals 6 clearances and he mainly played the second half forward

 

[bullus_hit]

Whilst i agree sometimes you need to pay a premium to pick up a premium player (like a callagahan) i just cannot see how a player would be worth giving up such a prime asset to pick up a player who is still speculative at #22.

We try so hard to get a good deal for players like Higgins/Cj but to then flick a pick in this range is just wasteful and not great business
players that will be available in the 20-30 range are players like McDonald,Taylor,Wilmot,Butler,Knevitt,Long,howes,brown etc

I think our talent identification team are very good with picks after 25 and rarely trade up when its that late and just take the next on our list
very risky reaching and sacrificing assets at this late in a draft.

It all depends whether we take 5 or 6 picks in the draft. If the powers that be choose to go in with 5 then I see no problem with the strategy, go up 6 places to maybe secure Wanganeen-Milera or Josh Sinn, drop down 12 places due to the process of activating pick 40. It really depends on whether we reckon there will be decent talent in the 40s. And here's the real kicker, that pick might climb a little with all the F&S bidding, so you might get the drop in single figures, in which case the strategy of trading up becomes worthwhile.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

It all depends whether we take 5 or 6 picks in the draft. If the powers that be choose to go in with 5 then I see no problem with the strategy, go up 6 places to maybe secure Wanganeen-Milera or Josh Sinn, drop down 12 places due to the process of activating pick 40. It really depends on whether we reckon there will be decent talent in the 40s. And here's the real kicker, that pick might climb a little with all the F&S bidding, so you might get the drop in single figures, in which case the strategy of trading up becomes worthwhile.

I am all in favour of using our 3rd rounders to move 26 & 28 but only if it gets us significantly higher ( 40+28 =20 or 38+40+28 = 9/11) as we get a better level but players 20+ im not a fan as we do have the list spots to take a shot at vic kids with potential but not opportunity the last 2 years

Im thinking a machine gun approach with 5/6 selections in this environment with the vic kids will unearth some real gems e.g Ned long at pick #38

 

[bullus_hit]

McDonald v Butler might be a better choice to make
also your thoughts on Erasmus still 17 years old and athletic traits and size also good prospects of being dual positional mid/fwd

Butler is definitely in the frame but he's another who may just get nabbed before our picks in the twenties. I think I still take Taylor but it's a close call and may depend on our other selections.

Erasmus looked pedestrian against Geelong reserves, I personally don't get the hype but his form in Colts has been excellent. The question is how much can you take away from such a low standard competition? I think this uncertainty means he's too risky as a top 10 pick. I have him pegged with Wanganeen-Milera & Sinn as high risk propositions but nice upside, suitable for our third selection but not any earlier. No way would I take Erasmus over Johnson, you are effectively taking a flanker over a mid and I don't think he's a certainty to become an onballer.

 

[Smoking Aces]

He's like a hover craft, gets lifted, floats a bit and tends to get first use, very similar to the way Ryder overcomes his height deficiency. Timing of his leap very impressive so you could feasibly say he could translate that ability to the forward line. Kicking looks safe and assured to me and overhead strong. He will take 3-4 years, that's the only caveat & one would need to be patient. Not sure we can afford that & I'm inclined to grab players who are ready to roll in season 2022.

Let someone else take Andrews. Project types like Andrews shouldn’t be taken in the top 10. Very boom or bust.

 

[bullus_hit]

I am all in favour of using our 3rd rounders to move 26 & 28 but only if it gets us significantly higher ( 40+28 =20 or 38+40+28 = 9/11) as we get a better level but players 20+ im not a fan as we do have the list spots to take a shot at vic kids with potential but not opportunity the last 2 years

Im thinking a machine gun approach with 5/6 selections in this environment with the vic kids will unearth some real gems e.g Ned long at pick #38

The good thing is we can do all this on the day & much like the Williams situation, we can get a good picture of how things will play out with the first day draft invitations.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Let someone else take Andrews. Project types like Andrews shouldn’t be taken in the top 10. Very boom or bust.

I agree regarding Andrew

200cm 70kgs will take 4 years to get to a good afl level if he gets there
These kids have an advantage at juniors due to height agility and speed but find it harder in AFL due to no longer having such an advantage and takes them 4-5 years to get to the level . - Then 7 years Free agency hits and possibly 5 years of development down the gurgler

 

[turk-d-tiger]

The good thing is we can do all this on the day & much like the Williams situation, we can get a good picture of how things will play out with the first day draft invitations.

Im thinking we will be getting good offers for our picks 26-28-38-40 in the 2nd day of the draft and most likely will trade 1 or maybe 2 of our picks into 2022. 26+#36 or 28+40 for something like Doggies /Bombers /Port 20221 1st

 

[taztiger4]

All I can offer is I dont want a Leek in the backline & Amiss in the forward line

 

[Redford]

I'd appreciate some insight here, Red, as this thread moves so fast and I've missed any real insights into him.

Well Terry Baxter-Higgs, he’s 184 cm for a start so taller than Daniel. He’s more developed than Dan at the same age. He plays through the midfield and has a spell every now and then up forward and can kick a goal on occasion.

He’s not as quick as Dan over the first 10 yards but he has an endurance factor about him - he gets to a lot of contests and running linkages. Surprisingly good at clearances, (will often take centre bounces with the Rebels) he can find a quick handball to a team mate in a better position. Still weighted to being more of an outside mid than inside, but has potential to develop. Needs to develop his body a bit.

Kicking wise he’s ok. Better than Dan (who I never thought was anything special on that front). Like Dan, lacks a bit of penetration sometimes.

He’s a lot better than I had him rated at the beginning of the season.