10,000,000 Cousins threads [Merged]

[Disco08]

Hislop was 20 when they drafted him in 2008. I suppose drafting Harry Taylor the year before was a blindingly obvious mistake too.

 

[Bill James]

Hislop was 20 when they drafted him in 2008. I suppose drafting Harry Taylor the year before was a blindingly obvious mistake too.

Which wouldn't make him 20 now would it.

Sorry Disco but 90% of the time you know if the kid has it by 20 and the other 10% of the time you can afford to be wrong. Its called money ball, play the percentages. Picking His was like going the torp from 60 out on the boundary, fantastic if it comes off but not the best play.

 

[Disco08]

Don't make me reel off all the 20+ year olds drafted recently that are performing well now.

 

[newyorktiger]

Which wouldn't make him 20 now would it.

Sorry Disco but 90% of the time you know if the kid has it by 20 and the other 10% of the time you can afford to be wrong. Its called money ball, play the percentages. Picking His was like going the torp from 60 out on the boundary, fantastic if it comes off but not the best play.

Hi Bill - Hope you read the book. The biggest lesson i got from Moneyball was the use of statistical analysis to find the hidden worth of a player regardless of age or physical attribute. Using the Oakland A's as the example they focused on key role players to get to their 90+ wins. How else would you explain them picking up David Justice?

Back to footy, in general I agree with you re Hislop. However, maybe the recruiters saw some extra value in his inside work. IMO throwing the words Moneyball and Age together does not make sense.

 

[Bill James]

Don't make me reel off all the 20+ year olds drafted recently that are performing well now.

Please do and accompany it by all the 20+ drafts that failed for balance. Just because some are outrageously successful (like a torp from the boundary) does not mean its a percentage play. Do the numbers and publish for our benefit.

 

[Scoop]

Hislop was 20 when they drafted him in 2008. I suppose drafting Harry Taylor the year before was a blindingly obvious mistake too.

No it wasn't because Harry Taylor hadn't already had a crack at it and was untried at the elite level.

And for the record Disco, I was firmly pro Hislop at that time.

 

[casper68]

Which wouldn't make him 20 now would it.

Sorry Disco but 90% of the time you know if the kid has it by 20 and the other 10% of the time you can afford to be wrong. Its called money ball, play the percentages. Picking His was like going the torp from 60 out on the boundary, fantastic if it comes off but not the best play.

if we go by these percentages where did you rate vickery at the end of last year he was 20 years old

 

[Disco08]

No it wasn't because Harry Taylor hadn't already had a crack at it and was untried at the elite level.

And for the record Disco, I was firmly pro Hislop at that time.

Bill was writing off the notion, not the player, hence the comparison.

2007 - Harry Taylor, Stewart Dew, Kepler Bradley
2008 - Leigh Brown, Hayden Ballantyne, Rohan Bail, Liam Anthony, Jason Davenport, Tom Hislop

 

[Bill James]

if we go by these percentages where did you rate vickery at the end of last year he was 20 years old

's
He is 200cm, I cut them some slack because the message conduits from neuron to leg seem to take longer to develop over those distances.

I know Phanto extends this rule to KPF's as well, I don't buy that personally. I think KPF's are also making their presence felt by 20 if they are any good.

 

[Bill James]

Bill was writing off the notion, not the player, hence the comparison.

2007 - Harry Taylor, Stewart Dew, Kepler Bradley
2008 - Leigh Brown, Hayden Ballantyne, Rohan Bail, Liam Anthony, Jason Davenport, Tom Hislop

A very selective list Disco, I asked to you to show all of the post 20's for balance, was the list of failures too long to type? Why didn't you mention Thomson in 2008 for starters, even Cousins, I have noticed his contribution to the side has been a bit patchy this year for someone that was only drafted a couple of years ago?

 

[Bill James]

Bill was writing off the notion, not the player, hence the comparison.
2007 - Harry Taylor, Stewart Dew, Kepler Bradley
2008 - Leigh Brown, Hayden Ballantyne, Rohan Bail, Liam Anthony, Jason Davenport, Tom Hislop

Given that you are incapable of being objective here is a complete list for a club you might be familiar with. These are the players drafted in the national or rookie drafts at greater than 20yo when we had the opportunity to draft an 18yo. To continue with the analogy we have gone the torp from 60 on the boundary 17 times for 1 goal (Tuck) 2 points (Nahas, King) and 14 OOB (the field). Better to haved kicked to the top of the square on every occasion and taken an 18yo IMHO. The number of kids taken after 50 in the draft who play more games than these blokes on average is large. Go and look. Taking 16 hacks to get a Shane Tuck does not make any sense or as history so clearly shows, a premiership list.

2000 - Stephen Sziller
2001 - Adam Houlihan
2002 - Tim Flemming Bill Nicholls Adam Pickering
2003 - Shane Morrison Shane Tuck
2004 - Mark Graham
2005 - Jeremy Humm
2006 - Jake King
2007 - Jarrond Sylvester Tristan Cartledge Cameron Howatt
2008 - Tom Hislop Robin Nahas
2009- Relton roberts
2010 - Brad Miller

 

[Leysy Days]

Incorrect Bill, it is widey known the insurance Miller's provided has been invaluable.

That will be 2 goals thanks.

 

[Disco08]

A very selective list Disco, I asked to you to show all of the post 20's for balance, was the list of failures too long to type? Why didn't you mention Thomson in 2008 for starters, even Cousins, I have noticed his contribution to the side has been a bit patchy this year for someone that was only drafted a couple of years ago?

Read my post again Bill. The players listed are the ones their clubs deemed suitable to pick in the ND. They weren't traded for (a la Thomson) and they weren't taken in the PSD or rookie draft where quality slips away dramatically and chances of success dropoff similarly.

The lists I gave you were all the 20+ players taken in the 2 drafts old enough for a 20 year old to have reached maturity. That was about the most relevant group possible in comparison with Hislop, who was 20 and taken in the 4th round of the ND.

 

[Disco08]

Incorrect Bill, it is widey known the insurance Miller's provided has been invaluable.

That will be 2 goals thanks.

Can you see any of the logic in them wanting to have a mature key forward on the rookie list or do you think it was complete idiocy?

 

[Scoop]

Can you see any of the logic in them wanting to have a mature key forward on the rookie list or do you think it was complete idiocy?

Complete idiocy.

 

[Disco08]

Can't see any logic in it at all (even though you may disagree with it)?

 

[Scoop]

Can't see any logic in it at all (even though you may disagree with it)?

Not in Brad Miller's case. Not with what he would bring to the table comapred to what Post/Griffiths/Vickery/Taylor (at the time he was a goer)/Morton could supply and the fact that they could get better very quickly.

 

[Leysy Days]

Can you see any of the logic in them wanting to have a mature key forward on the rookie list or do you think it was complete idiocy?

Leysy's not with the list mgment team on this one.

Suprised you are as well Roachy. Given you were against the Cousins pickup.

There's no doubt at all we'll look back on the Miller drafting as a (albeit small) mistake.

 

[Disco08]

I wouldn't have picked him myself. Ideally I'd have liked to see a kid given a go but I can see why they were worried and went the conservative route.

 

[Harry]

I wouldn't have picked him myself. Ideally I'd have liked to see a kid given a go but I can see why they were worried and went the conservative route.

we are rebuild mode - why take the conservative route?