You need top 5 ND picks to win flags!!!

[Carter]

Short memories around here. You don’t just bottom out for 3-4 years then suddenly rocket back up into the top 4 again, ready to win silverware for the next decade. It’s a long, painful process that more often than not ends in failure.

Look at Carlton, on their third(?) attempt in last 20 years. Essendon similar. North are 6 years into their 3 year rebuild, ditto Adelaide. Both expansion clubs have had more early picks than I can count and where are they now? Melbourne are an example of success as long as you ignore the fact they started their rebuild when we did back in 2009, failed and then had another crack in 2014 but this time with the helping hand of AFL HQ. Brisbane and Sydney? Sure, all we need is our own academy churning out s-tier talent every other year to supplement our draft picks.

Very easy to build a losing culture and very, very hard to build a winning one. I’d have thought we Richmond supporters would have known that better than most.

Except for the fact we won’t be winning flag 14 with the next crop of youngsters or trade we can engineer.

We can keep topping up and maintaining some kind of winning culture but there won’t be a flag without a sprinkling of high draft picks. It’s that simple.

 

[TOT70]

Guru Bob say man who bottom out in year after trading away first round pick not understand consequence.

Guru Bob also say man who act decisively then changes mind is not decisive.

 

[richards42]

Except for the fact we won’t be winning flag 14 with the next crop of youngsters or trade we can engineer.

We can keep topping up and maintaining some kind of winning culture but there won’t be a flag without a sprinkling of high draft picks. It’s that simple.

There’s a thing called free agency. We are a destination club still. Every year you pick one and it’s like having a first rounder except it’s guaranteed he can play.
We have plenty of talent coming thru , we will be fine.
Start deliberately bottoming out and you will attract no one. Remember when every players name came who wanted to move and they always picked Collingwood.
Show some patience mate!

 

[Tigers of Old]

Who's to say the youngsters we have won't make a quantum leap? It's happened with other teams on the rise who looked all at sea whilst players were developing.
It can turn quickly. Unless you're Nostradamus none of us have any idea what the future holds.

Chad Warner Draft 2019 Draft Pick 39
Tom Papley 2016 rookie draft etc.

We have countless examples of our own.
Bottoming out guarantees nothing.

 

[tigertime2]

how about we invest in developing the players we have? worked before.

 

[Carter]

There’s a thing called free agency. We are a destination club still. Every year you pick one and it’s like having a first rounder except it’s guaranteed he can play.
We have plenty of talent coming thru , we will be fine.
Start deliberately bottoming out and you will attract no one. Remember when every players name came who wanted to move and they always picked Collingwood.
Show some patience mate!

can't get a cotchin or a riewoldt via free agency

only reason we got lynch was

1) we were clearly contending

2) GC was still a basket case

free agency options don't quite get you there

 

[forward press]

Speaking objectively which teams have bottomed out to get their flags recently

Geelong -> No (father son, cameron)
Melbourne -> Yes
Richmond * 3 -> Yes
WCE -> Not sure
Western Bulldogs -> their now retired FF yes .. but not sure where bont, libba (FS) etc. came - not that familiar with their list build
Hawthorn -> Yes

I think the evidence supports the strategy but it is a bitter pill to swallow. also no guarantees of course - you can just lock yourself in to years of misery

Who has bottomed out and where have they gone ... I think it tends to work when you already have a few 28-30 year olds that are pretty good as well. So almost two dips. The first one to get a couple and then the second one to get one or two more that are cheaper so you have two 23-24 year old guns and two 28-29 year old guns.

Not working

Suns

Works in progress - we will see

Carlton
NM
Hawthorn

Maybe / looks promising

Adelaide (already had a core)
Sydney (already had a core)
Collingwood (already had a core)

Good analysis.
Bottoming out no guarantee of success, but for some clubs it has delivered success.

Blues were putrid for 5 years and still no guarantee after 8 years of a rebuild.

Look at the following….

Pick 3 - Dow
Pick 6 - SPS
Pick 10- LOB
Pick 17 - Kemp
Pick 20 - Stocker

Couple that with hits in McKay, Curnow, Weitering, Walsh.

Imagine we bottomed out from 24-27 and had Dow, SPS and LOB to show for it.

 

[Smoking Aces]

I bet at the end of 2016 this same thread appeared. And this is with Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin and Rance on the books. Imagine if we followed this line on thinking back then and got rid of them?

Next minute we are premiers.

Sometimes you are already sitting on gold without actually knowing it.

 

[DavidSSS]

Bottoming out is not a strategy for maintaining membership and relevance.

High draft picks are guarantees of nothing.

We do need to change our list, the game has subtly changed as it always does, and we need to recruit more players with the skills needed for the way the game is being played now and how it will be played over the next 10 years (how you foresee that I don't know).

It will take patience, smart picking of players and a bit of luck, but I've seen too many clubs bottom out and stay there for decades, or bottom out, rise to the top 4 and win no flags. It isn't a great strategy. There is no single great strategy. Equalisation exists to even up the competition and every club is trying to win more than 1 premiership every 18 years.

I would be looking to spend a couple of years trying to get highly skilled players from wherever we can get them and aiming to continue to make finals.

DS

 

[shawry]

can't get a cotchin or a riewoldt via free agency

only reason we got lynch was

1) we were clearly contending

2) GC was still a basket case

free agency options don't quite get you there

Seemed to serve Geelong ok getting Cameron. He was the difference for them getting there. Technically was a trade but was a restricted free agent.

 

[Carter]

2016
Bontempelli PICK 4
Macrae PICK 6
Stringer PICK 5
Boyd Pick 1 (GWS)
Murphy PICK 13 (bullseye pick) (did his bit to get his side to GF position)

2017, 2019, 2020
Cotchin PICK 2
Martin PICK 3
Prestia PICK 6
Riewoldt PICK 13 (bullseye pick)
Lynch (2019, 2020) PICK 11 (GCS, bullseye pick)
Vlastuin PICK 9

2018
Hurn PICK 13 (bullseye pick)
Masten PICK 3
Kennedy PICK 4 (CARL)
Shuey PICK 20 (bullseye pick)
Gaff PICK 4 (didn't play in GF but premiership year)

2021
May (NT access recruit to GCS) (top ten quality, traded to Melbourne along with K Kolodjashnij for PICK 6)
Lever PICK 14 (ADEL, bullseye pick)
Salem PICK 9
Brayshaw PICK 3
Petracca PICK 2
Jackson PICK 3
Oliver PICK 4

2022
Cameron (GWS underage pick, top five quality)
Rohan PICK 6 (SYD)
Hawkins (father-son rule, top five quality)
Dangerfield PICK 10 (ADEL)
Selwood PICK 7

Bulldogs - had two top six mids and a top 5 x-factor, plus GWS pick 1, plus bullseye Murphy
Richmond - had three top six mids, plus bullseye Riewoldt, plus Lynch free agent
West Coast - had two top 5 mids, one top 5 forward, plus bullseye Shuey, bullseye Hurn
Melbourne - had top 5 defender, bullseye Lever, three top 5 mids, top 5 ruck, top ten defender
Geelong - had two top 5 forwards, top six utility, two top ten mids

to see the argument to its logical conclusion, what do we have for the future?

2024
Gibcus PICK 9
Taranto PICK 2 (GWS)
Hopper PICK 7 (GWS)
Lynch (2019, 2020) PICK 11 (GCS, bullseye pick)

We have Sonsie, Bolton and Rioli as second round wins, but it isn't quite enough. We need a top 10 forward and another top 10 mid. Difficult to go free agency if cap space is tight.

Can't bottom this year, but a bottom four finish next year, with the superhunks coming on, might be just the tonic.

 

[Carter]

I bet at the end of 2016 this same thread appeared. And this is with Cotchin, Riewoldt, Martin and Rance on the books. Imagine if we followed this line on thinking back then and got rid of them?

Next minute we are premiers.

Sometimes you are already sitting on gold without actually knowing it.

but we wouldn't have jagged any flags without picks 2, 3, 6 (mids) and pick 13 (forward)

 

[Carter]

there's a reason why so many clubs bottom out to launch.

it works.

for everyone? pfft. flags are hard to win.

most on this thread are ignoring the fact we did it too.

only one team has truly successfully topped up - geelong. with hawkins, danger and selwood still playing good footy. our five star players aren't. that's the red flag that we need to bottom now.

 

[shawry]

Bulldogs - had two top six mids and a top 5 x-factor, plus GWS pick 1, plus bullseye Murphy
Richmond - had three top six mids, plus bullseye Riewoldt, plus Lynch free agent
West Coast - had two top 5 mids, one top 5 forward, plus bullseye Shuey, bullseye Hurn
Melbourne - had top 5 defender, bullseye Lever, three top 5 mids, top 5 ruck, top ten defender
Geelong - had two top 5 forwards, top six utility, two top ten mids

to see the argument to its logical conclusion, what do we have for the future?

2024
Gibcus PICK 9

We have Sonsie, Bolton and Rioli as second round wins, but it isn't enough. We need top draft quality to win the next flag.

How about we add in Vlastuin, Taranto and Hopper all top 10 picks. Lynch still there too also top 10.

 

[Carter]

Seemed to serve Geelong ok getting Cameron. He was the difference for them getting there. Technically was a trade but was a restricted free agent.

see analysis above - they still had two top ten mids (both superstars), a top 5 quality forward in Hawkins

 

[Carter]

How about we add in Vlastuin, Taranto and Hopper all top 10 picks. Lynch still there too also top 10.

updated, but incorrect on a couple. vlastuin wasn't top ten, think he was 14. doesn't really support my argument around top ten picks. he is proof you can get quality 10-20, but I wouldn't rate him five star. lynch was 11 and I've included him

we traded for the others but gave up a lot and you still need to jag a couple of top 10 mids of your own it seems

 

[forward press]

sorry Aces but you can’t trade an Oliver or a Bontempelli in.

These five star guys are locked away.

And you can’t win flags without them.

There are some exceptions (Neale, Dangerfield, etc) but they are extremely rare.

We ain’t getting five star trades, we’re only getting the caliber of Taranto and Hopper. Good players but not the cream you need.

No, we need to draft the next superstars, no way we’re prising them from another club.

Brisbane a good example of bucking the trend.

Trade in: Dunkley, Neale, Cameron, Zorko, McCarthy, McKenna, Lyons, Joe D.

Supplement with Raynor, McClug, Andrew’s, Starevich, Hipwood

 

[Carter]

Brisbane a good example of bucking the trend.

Trade in: Dunkley, Neale, Cameron, Zorko, McCarthy, McKenna, Lyons, Joe D.

Supplement with Raynor, McClug, Andrew’s, Starevich, Hipwood

time will tell on Brisbane

I don't think they're good enough. another failed top up strat I reckon.

 

[spook]

Vlastuin was pick 9.

 

[shawry]

updated, but incorrect on a couple. vlastuin wasn't top ten, think he was 14. doesn't really support my argument around top ten picks. he is proof you can get quality 10-20, but I wouldn't rate him five star. lynch was 11 and I've included him

we traded for the others but gave up a lot and you still need to jag a couple of top 10 mids of your own it seems

Taranto and Hopper are either top 10 or they aren't mate. will be around for 7 years, I say they count. Geelong gave up a lot for Cameron. Vlastuin was drafted at pick 9 so also counts. I'd say he is our best backman he would be five star for me although not showing it this season so far.