Woo Denial | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Woo Denial

Yeah,good blog.

Woo is everywhere.

I like in that interview with Dicky I linked how the doctor blamed Post Modernism on the resurgence in woo.I reckon there is a fare bit of truth in that.I'm doing a unit at Uni at the moment on the ethics and cultural perspectives in science. My tutor is a bit of woo-merchant it seems.

Bit tough on impressionable kids when even people from the science dept. are open to a bit of woo.
 
Panthera tigris FC said:
You seem to place a lot of weight on the fact that the numbers supposedly 'popped' into her head. I am not quite sure what that means, but it seems to be a deciding factor for you, as if this is how precognition is supposed to work.

You've never had a seemingly random thought pop into your head while thinking about something completely different?

The way this girl described her experience made that aspect of it quite compelling to me. Why would these numbers just pop into her thoughts when she wasn't even trying to pick the numbers? Perhaps just sitting near the wheel brought it on subconsciously but if that was the case it's strange that it only happened for 5 spins when she would have been nearby to thousands of spins.

Panthera tigris FC said:
Have you had a look at evo's basis for dismissing precognition on logical grounds? I know you dismissed it in an earlier post as 21st century philosophy, but do you understand why he considers it logically impossible?

I assume it's based on the same fallacy of God knowing the future in that if people can 'know' the future then the future is set and therefore free will doesn't exist.

Panthera tigris FC said:
My claim was that they had chosen randomly....I guess you would put that down to precognition then as well?

As I've said a couple of times, only if the person that chose them was 100% certain the numbers were right before the draw.

Panthera tigris FC said:
Where did I say anything about speaking to God? I was pointing out that your claim reminds me of religious individuals who ascribe unlikely events to the grace of God, or such. You have just ascribed it to precognition. In both cases coincidence could explain it without having to resort to the supernatural.

Religious individuals look for God in almost everything that happens. None of the people involved in this coincidence were or are big advocates of precognition.

Panthera tigris FC said:
No, it doesn't. However you are going to have to do better than a once off unlikely event to convince me and others.

I'm not trying to convince you or anyone else. All I was doing was relating a story that IMO looked a lot like precognition.

Panthera tigris FC said:
This is an interesting one. I bet that "certainty" was reinforced by the number coming up (ie. when she said the first number I bet she wasn't as certain it would come up). Hindsight can reinforce such claims.

Agreed, but in this case the girl said she had a feeling of certainty before even the first number came up. Are there degrees of certainty?
 
Disco08 said:
I assume it's based on the same fallacy of God knowing the future in that if people can 'know' the future then the future is set and therefore free will doesn't exist.
Not really, although it is based on causation(determinism)

You only need think about how complex the universe is.If your friend could see into the future she would need to be able to calculate the infinte number of probabilities in the universe of all things aligning to cause the ball to land on say ,11.--the spin of the earth,the spin of the wheel,gravity,strength of the roller,friction,and so on.You've probasly heard of the butterfly effect? Then multiply that effect again by seemingly (to me) almost infinite possibilities.

This assume that you believe effects need causes,as I do.If you don't then:

a/you believe in the supernatural by definition
b/yopu believe that anything is possible in any given moment acausally.

In this 'world' chaos would reign supreme, and nothing could order.It seems clear to me that is not the case and we don't live in a world like that.Otherwise scientists couldn't do any science at all.Investigating causes woiuld become meaningless.

Your claims are therefore woo..One doesn't even need to do experiments to come to this conclusion; just adhere to a simple rule of cause and effect. :)
 
My only claim is that I and others saw a girl accurately predict five roulette numbers thanks to what she described as the numbers popping into her head. Are you saying I'm making it up and that it didn't actually happen? Is that the definition of woo in this case?
 
Disco08 said:
Are you saying I'm making it up and that it didn't actually happen?[
No

Is that the definition of woo in this case?
If you believe she truly had precognition,or could see into the future,then yes, that is woo.
 
OK, fair enough. As I said to Pantera, I'm not saying the event on its own proves anything, just that it had the very strong appearance of precognition.

My only other woo-like experience has been with my dog. He doesn't do it much anymore, but for a while (maybe 4 years or so) he would very often get out of his bed and go and look out the back door at the gate minutes before either myself or duckgirl got home. Not sure if he could somehow hear the vibration of our car's engines or something (not a bad feat from 10km on a windy or rainy night with other cars on the road) but it certainly happened often enough not to be a coincidence in my mind. He would never do it when we were both home and he would never do it (that we saw) when one of us wasn't actually on our way home. He didn't do it every time, but he did do it very regularly - maybe 40% of the time give or take. I don't think you could ascribe it to his knowing roughly the times we came home because duckgirl finishes work at vastly different times quite randomly and while my times were more regular he would also do it when I was coming home from say a poker night or game of golf or whatever as well.

Not sure what conclusion (if any) you can draw from this but it was fun to watch and like I said, certainly pretty woo-ish.
 
Note to Pantera:for the same reason as given above the Copenhagen Interpretationand Heisenberg's Uncertainy Principle are also woo. :)
 
Panthera tigris FC said:
By that definition, I would agree.
Why did you qualify your statement?

Do you believe an alternate reality is possible; one where acausality can occur?
 
Panthera tigris FC said:
By that definition of woo.
Oh.I was hoping you may commit. ;D

If my definition of woo is right then this is a bit of a worry wouldn't you say?


According to a poll at a Quantum Mechanics workshop in 1997[7], the Copenhagen interpretation is the most widely-accepted specific interpretation of quantum mechanics, followed by the many-worlds interpretation.
 
Disco08 said:
....... My only other woo-like experience has been with my dog. He doesn't do it much anymore, but for a while (maybe 4 years or so) he would very often get out of his bed and go and look out the back door at the gate minutes before either myself or duckgirl got home.......

Not sure what conclusion (if any) you can draw from this but it was fun to watch and like I said, certainly pretty woo-ish.

Apparently the dogs in and around Baghdad used to bark and howl a minute or so before US cruise missiles struck during operation awe and whatever. So reliable were these hounds that people came to depend on them with their life.

Disco, your car may sound like a cruise missile – could be time for a service.
 
Freezer said:
The fact they weren't consecutive is irrelevant - they're unique events.

Assuming the table had 00, there's 38 numbers - 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 = 1/16,681,088.

To win tatts, 1/45 x 1/44 x 1/43 x 1/42 x 1/41 x 1/40 = 1/5,864,443,200.

A lot harder to win tatts than to do what she did.

(Hope my maths is right, or I'll look pretty silly.)

Sorry to make you look silly Freezer but 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 = 1/79,235,168.

And of course, 1 in 79,235,169 shots do occur, about 1 in 79,235,169th of the time. Patsy just happened to profit off the 1.

Your tatts figures are wrong too, it should be 6/45 x 5/44 x 4/43 x 3/42 x 2/41 x 1/40 = 720/5,864,443,200 or 1/8,145,160.

So actually, tatts is much easier to win.
 
Nice one jimbob. I actually overestimated though. The odds were only millions to one, not billions. Shame she didn't get a couple more numbers though, that would have made it really impressive. Even one more would have made it 3 billion or so to 1. 3 more would have made it 4 trillion to one.
 
jb03 said:
Sorry to make you look silly Freezer but 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 = 1/79,235,168.

And of course, 1 in 79,235,169 shots do occur, about 1 in 79,235,169th of the time. Patsy just happened to profit off the 1.

Your tatts figures are wrong too, it should be 6/45 x 5/44 x 4/43 x 3/42 x 2/41 x 1/40 = 720/5,864,443,200 or 1/8,145,160.

So actually, tatts is much easier to win.
Don't you have to get 6 numbers and a sup?It's been so long since I looked at tatts.

That would make 7 multiples
 
evo said:
Don't you have to get 6 numbers and a sup?It's been so long since I looked at tatts.

That would make 7 multiples

First division is 6 from 6. The supps are for lower divisions.
 
G'day Disco.

For a bloke who argues so passionately about there not being a God, you sure have argued long and hard about the possibilities of some far out theories.

Psychic abilities, De ja vu, Ghosts and a bit of Naturopathy, and nearly forgot about the dog.

Why so passionately against something that can easily fit alongside these?
 
Don't think I've ever argued against the possibility of a god dukeos, just against the possibility (plausibility is possibly a better word) of the omnipowerful creator Gods of Christianity, Islam and Judaism.

To be honest though, I'm not arguing for these things as I'm arguing against their outright impossibility based on some personal (and some not) anecdotal evidence. Nothing I've seen or heard has been enough to fully convince me on any of these topics aside from perhaps the results derived from naturopathic treatments both my missus and our dog have benefited from.
 
Have just read through this entire thread and my head hurts.
Good reading though.

dukeos said:
G'day Disco.

For a bloke who argues so passionately about there not being a God, you sure have argued long and hard about the possibilities of some far out theories.

Psychic abilities, De ja vu, Ghosts and a bit of Naturopathy, and nearly forgot about the dog.

Why so passionately against something that can easily fit alongside these?

Fair question.