Woo Denial

[Disco08]

How about my experience with the girl 'knowing' roulette numbers? That's evidence IMO. Many will brush it off as 'only anecdotal' and the best friend of woo (both of which may well be true) but there's no denying it happened. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has had an experience like this.

 

[evo]

*shrug* It's anecdotal,if you want to believe in it that's up[ to you.

Jayfox is certain he has encountered God.What's the difference?


Getting back to homeopathy,this is good interview by trick Dicky on the subject.

http://richarddawkins.net/article,3456,Richard-Dawkins-interviews-Prof-Michael-Baum,Richard-Dawkins-Michael-Baum-RichardDawkinsnet

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

How about my experience with the girl 'knowing' roulette numbers? That's evidence IMO. Many will brush it off as 'only anecdotal' and the best friend of woo (both of which may well be true) but there's no denying it happened. I'm sure I'm not the only one who has had an experience like this.

And I picked 3 winners in a row on Geelong Cup day and I know next to nothing about horses. Is that evidence? Strange things happen, but that doesn't make them supernatural. Unlikely perhaps, but certainly possible.

As evo points out, get your friend to do it for James Randi and she'll make a million bucks. Don't you find it telling that no one has 'won' the million dollar prize?

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

Getting back to homeopathy,this is good interview by trick Dicky on the subject.

http://richarddawkins.net/article,3456,Richard-Dawkins-interviews-Prof-Michael-Baum,Richard-Dawkins-Michael-Baum-RichardDawkinsnet

I always enjoyed Randi's take on it.

Did you see Dawkins' doco that the interview you linked to was part of?

 

[evo]

I always enjoyed Randi's take on it.

Did you see Dawkins' doco that the interview you linked to was part of?

I've just been watching his interviews as he loads them onto his site.Is that what you mean?

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

The Enemies of Reason doco. If I recall it was broadcast last year on SBS in two parts. One focussed on general woo (ie. dowsers, psychics, chakra cleansers and the like) and the other was on alternative medicine. A lot of it was like shooting fish in a barrel (a la Religulous), but interesting nonetheless.

 

[evo]

Ah right,yeah I watched the one on Dowsing etc.

 

[Disco08]

*shrug* It's anecdotal,if you want to believe in it that's up[ to you.

Jayfox is certain he has encountered God.What's the difference?

I was standing there, stone cold sober with three mates witnessing the entire thing. It's probably caught on camera and other people including the dealer and pit bosses certainly took an interest by the 4th and 5th times it happened and we were all betting on the same number straight up. Why wouldn't I believe in it?

I think there's a big difference between that and personal experience of God, don't you?

And I picked 3 winners in a row on Geelong Cup day and I know next to nothing about horses. Is that evidence?

Did you suddenly just know which horse was going to win with absolute certainty or did you put a couple of blind bets on? Pretty obvious difference if you ask me. This girl wasn't even playing when she first 'knew' which number was coming up. She was just hanging around when the number popped into her head.

As evo points out, get your friend to do it for James Randi and she'll make a million bucks. Don't you find it telling that no one has 'won' the million dollar prize?

Depends how it's worded I guess. Do you find it telling that no one's proved evolution and won a quarter of a million bucks?

If it's a fairer proposition than Hovind's then it's telling in that it would demonstrate people have little control over precognition. Both of the experiences I've had have been completely random.

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

Did you suddenly just know which horse was going to win with absolute certainty or did you put a couple of blind bets on? Pretty obvious difference if you ask me. This girl wasn't even playing when she first 'knew' which number was coming up. She was just hanging around when the number popped into her head.

Well, I looked at the names and chose one that 'felt right' (one happened to be named The Tiger..or something like that ;D)? If I subscribed to woo I might be inclined to say that I chose with 'absolute certainty'. What's the difference? I didn't close my eyes and pick one out at random, I chose. This is the problem with your conclusion...it can happen and we happen to place significance on it. If she had guessed incorrectly you would have just dismissed it. Pattern seeking....again.

Depends how it's worded I guess. Do you find it telling that no one's proved evolution and won a quarter of a million bucks?

Well I find the terms quite reasonable. Design a scientifically controlled experiment to demonstrate the 'power' in association with the Randi Foundation. Hovind's requirements are as you say....worded in such a way that it would be difficult to prove many things.

If it's a fairer proposition than Hovind's then it's telling in that it would demonstrate people have little control over precognition. Both of the experiences I've had have been completely random.

So how do you separate your so-called 'precognition' from coincidence? What about all the times that you (or anyone) gets it wrong? That is where it hasn't worked? That is the exception that makes the 'random rule'? This is similar to those that say that the 'unlikely' event of biogenesis (if it was unlikely) needs a supernatural explanation....when a once off unlikely event is still possible.

This is an area that fascinates me. The human inclination to see significance in the mundane. The pattern seeking nature of humans. We all do it in some form or another. The ways it becomes manifest interests me.

 

[Disco08]

That James Randi video is very entertaining and informative. Cheers.

Well, I looked at the names and chose one that 'felt right' (one happened to be named The Tiger..or something like that ;D)? If I subscribed to woo I might be inclined to say that I chose with 'absolute certainty'. What's the difference? I didn't close my eyes and pick one out at random, I chose. This is the problem with your conclusion...it can happen and we happen to place significance on it. If she had guessed incorrectly you would have just dismissed it. Pattern seeking....again.

I did dismiss it. Three times. It wasn't until she got 3 right that any of us decided to bet on her number if it happened again. Like I said, she didn't sit there guessing all night and get it right five times. She wasn't even interested in playing until the second time it happened her number came up, and even then she only bet a small amount each time.

Anyway, there's massive differences. Take it from someone that's spent a lot of time on the punt and at casinos. Picking 3 winners in a row and seemingly telepathically 'knowing' 5 non consecutive spins on a roulette wheel are not even in the same league. I'm all for writing things off as coincidence in most cases, but this was too impressive. As I already said to evo, she never had this experience previously (she'd been with us to the casino quite a few times previously though) and has never had it again. The odds of accurately predicting fives spins on a roulette wheel are in the billions to one. That's one massive coincidence considering she wasn't even trying to guess the numbers.

So how do you separate your so-called 'precognition' from coincidence? What about all the times that you (or anyone) gets it wrong? That is where it hasn't worked? That is the exception that makes the 'random rule'? This is similar to those that say that the 'unlikely' event of biogenesis (if it was unlikely) needs a supernatural explanation....when a once off unlikely event is still possible.

I understand all this. IMO it's not relevant in this case as, as I've said, the only 5 times this happened she got it right.

Billions to one, hardly mundane.

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

That James Randi video is very entertaining and informative. Cheers.

No worries. I enjoy Randi's view because he is trained in the art of deception as a professional magician.

I did dismiss it. Three times. It wasn't until she got 3 right that any of us decided to bet on her number if it happened again. Like I said, she didn't sit there guessing all night and get it right five times. She wasn't even interested in playing until the second time it happened her number came up, and even then she only bet a small amount each time.

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. Does the fact that people win first division Tattslotto convince you of precognition? Odds are just as slim. Your friend's feat was the equivalent.

Anyway, there's massive differences. Take it from someone that's spent a lot of time on the punt and at casinos. Picking 3 winners in a row and seemingly telepathically 'knowing' 5 non consecutive spins on a roulette wheel are not even in the same league. I'm all for writing things off as coincidence in most cases, but this was too impressive. As I already said to evo, she never had this experience previously (she'd been with us to the casino quite a few times previously though) and has never had it again. The odds of accurately predicting fives spins on a roulette wheel are in the billions to one. That's one massive coincidence considering she wasn't even trying to guess the numbers.

Not in the same league? Why not? I would agree the odds of the two examples occurring are in a different league, but the coincidence is the same. I would be impressed if my wife filled out a tattslotto form and won us millions of dollars (mighty impressed actually ;D) but I wouldn't put it down to precognition.

She wasn't trying to guess the numbers? What was she doing?

I understand all this. IMO it's not relevant in this case as, as I've said, the only 5 times this happened she got it right.

Billions to one, hardly mundane.

It is completely relevant. It is just more focussed in a case like this. Coincidences happen. Even extremely unlikely ones. It is the conclusions that we draw from them that interest me.

Mundane in the sense that it can be chalked down to a highly unlikely coincidence - no magic required. If she could do it reproducibly, then you might impress me.

 

[Disco08]

Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. Does the fact that people win first division Tattslotto convince you of precognition? Odds are just as slim. Your friend's feat was the equivalent.

True in a sense, but a complete equivalent would be someone standing in a newsagent for another reason suddenly 'knowing' the winning lotto numbers and then winning on them.

Not in the same league? Why not? I would agree the odds of the two examples occurring are in a different league

You partly answered your own question......

I would be impressed if my wife filled out a tattslotto form and won us millions of dollars (mighty impressed actually Grin) but I wouldn't put it down to precognition.

..... with the completion of the answer being that you (or your wife in your example) don't claim that the winning numbers just popped into your head.

This girl doesn't claim to have psychic powers and she can't explain how these numbers were popping into her head.

She wasn't trying to guess the numbers? What was she doing?

Having a drink after work. We were betting, she wasn't.

It is completely relevant. It is just more focussed in a case like this. Coincidences happen. Even extremely unlikely ones. It is the conclusions that we draw from them that interest me.

How many extremely unlikely coincidences need to happen before we can take them as some sort of evidence?

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

True in a sense, but a complete equivalent would be someone standing in a newsagent for another reason suddenly 'knowing' the winning lotto numbers and then winning on them.

You keep using terms like "knowing" and "popping into your head". How is this different from just confidently guessing? There are plenty of examples of once off tattslotto players winning.

You partly answered your own question......

No...I pointed out that we are talking about degrees of probability. Where do you draw the line from coincidence to precognition?

..... with the completion of the answer being that you (or your wife in your example) don't claim that the winning numbers just popped into your head.

In hindsight she probably would (because they would have!). How else would she have chosen?

This girl doesn't claim to have psychic powers and she can't explain how these numbers were popping into her head.

This sounds very much like a religious argument for coincidences that are ascribed to God. "I don't know why I chose to leave right at that time, but if I hadn't I would probably have been killed" for example. Again, seeing meaning in coincidence.

Having a drink after work. We were betting, she wasn't.

Um, having a drink AND guessing numbers...otherwise how did you know?

How many extremely unlikely coincidences need to happen before we can take them as some sort of evidence?

Lets start with one more. I am surprised you didn't keep it going considering the obvious windfall that this would have provided you with. Did the numbers just stop coming?

 

[evo]

woo

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

evwoo

 

[Disco08]

You keep using terms like "knowing" and "popping into your head".

Because that's how she described it. We were talking about other stuff and suddenly she'd just say the number.

No...I pointed out that we are talking about degrees of probability. Where do you draw the line from coincidence to precognition?

I don't draw a line at all. All I'm saying is this certainly seemed like precognition to me, her and the other people we were with. To me it's strange enough that numbers would pop into her head at all, let alone that she'd guess 5 spins correctly at 100% accuracy.

In hindsight she probably would (because they would have!). How else would she have chosen?

I hear a lot of people like to use birthdays and anniversaries. Certainly most people have an affinity with certain numbers that would influence their choices.

This sounds very much like a religious argument for coincidences that are ascribed to God. "I don't know why I chose to leave right at that time, but if I hadn't I would probably have been killed" for example. Again, seeing meaning in coincidence.

Sounds nothing like it to me. No one's claiming any meaning from it. The only claim I'm making is that it was very strange and had the appearance of precognition.

Um, having a drink AND guessing numbers...otherwise how did you know?

No, she wasn't trying to guess the numbers, or at least that's what she told me which would seem right as we went there fairly regularly and she never played or guessed numbers while we talked.

Lets start with one more. I am surprised you didn't keep it going considering the obvious windfall that this would have provided you with. Did the numbers just stop coming?

Yeah, they stopped as quickly as they started. We only ended up cashing in on the last two because we were all sceptical at first. We hung around for a couple of hours after the last win and kept going there for drinks after work for at least a year and it never happened again.

I'm surprised that you're surprised we didn't 'keep it going'. I've already said she didn't claim any control over these numbers popping into her head.

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

Because that's how she described it. We were talking about other stuff and suddenly she'd just say the number.

What was her reaction to all of this? When it comes down to it things change in hindsight...especially when they are borne out with results, as happened in this case.

I don't draw a line at all. All I'm saying is this certainly seemed like precognition to me, her and the other people we were with. To me it's strange enough that numbers would pop into her head at all, let alone that she'd guess 5 spins correctly at 100% accuracy.

Of course you draw a line. If she had guessed one correctly we wouldn't be discussing it. It was the unlikely occurence that she guessed 5 correctly that led you to conlude precognition. My question was where you switched from scepticism to belief?

I hear a lot of people like to use birthdays and anniversaries. Certainly most people have an affinity with certain numbers that would influence their choices.

And if they don't is it precognition? What provides that affinity?

Sounds nothing like it to me. No one's claiming any meaning from it. The only claim I'm making is that it was very strange and had the appearance of precognition.

You can't see the association? Ascribing meaning (God, precognition etc.) to a coincidence? As you say it has the appearance of precognition. Does that make it so?

No, she wasn't trying to guess the numbers, or at least that's what she told me which would seem right as we went there fairly regularly and she never played or guessed numbers while we talked.

And yet she was calling out numbers to you. Sounds like guessing to me.

Yeah, they stopped as quickly as they started. We only ended up cashing in on the last two because we were all sceptical at first. We hung around for a couple of hours after the last win and kept going there for drinks after work for at least a year and it never happened again.

I'm surprised that you're surprised we didn't 'keep it going'. I've already said she didn't claim any control over these numbers popping into her head.

What do you conclude from that? It certainly is an odd occurence, but to conclude that it was precognition seems premature.

I wasn't clear on the details of how the event concluded. Whether she just stopped calling out numbers or the streak just ended.

 

[Disco08]

What was her reaction to all of this? When it comes down to it things change in hindsight...especially when they are borne out with results, as happened in this case.

Surprise at first (both at a number just popping into her head and then that the number came up) then mild shock combined with a bit of jubilation from the wins after it all was over.

Of course you draw a line. If she had guessed one correctly we wouldn't be discussing it. It was the unlikely occurence that she guessed 5 correctly that led you to conlude precognition. My question was where you switched from scepticism to belief?

OK, sorry. After 3 spins. I had a little bet on the 4th number and the max bet on the 5th.

It was as much the fact that numbers were popping into her head that made this seem like precognition (although you're obviously right about the fact that it took 5 correct guesses to make it remarkable). If she had have just guessed the numbers without claiming that these numbers were popping into her head then I'd write it off as coincidence. I knew her pretty well and she wasn't the sort of person to make something like this up out of the blue.

And if they don't is it precognition? What provides that affinity?

No, I'd only see it as possible precognition if they were certain they had the numbers right before they won.

Association. Favourite footy player's numbers, old girlfriend's addresses, that sort of thing. There's heaps of them.

You can't see the association? Ascribing meaning (God, precognition etc.) to a coincidence?

No. What's coincidental about someone claiming to be able to speak to God?

As you say it has the appearance of precognition. Does that make it so?

No. Just because it's possible (if highly unlikely) that it's a coincidence doesn't make it not so though either.

And yet she was calling out numbers to you. Sounds like guessing to me.

When people are guessing they generally don't claim a feeling of certainty about what is going to happen.

What do you conclude from that? It certainly is an odd occurence, but to conclude that it was precognition seems premature.

I'm not going to definitively say that it was precognition. I'm only saying it felt like it at the time (to all involved and present) and still dose to me.

 

[Freezer]

The odds of accurately predicting fives spins on a roulette wheel are in the billions to one. That's one massive coincidence considering she wasn't even trying to guess the numbers.

The fact they weren't consecutive is irrelevant - they're unique events.

Assuming the table had 00, there's 38 numbers - 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 x 1/38 = 1/16,681,088.

To win tatts, 1/45 x 1/44 x 1/43 x 1/42 x 1/41 x 1/40 = 1/5,864,443,200.

A lot harder to win tatts than to do what she did.

(Hope my maths is right, or I'll look pretty silly.)

 

[Panthera tigris FC]

Surprise at first (both at a number just popping into her head and then that the number came up) then mild shock combined with a bit of jubilation from the wins after it all was over.

OK, sorry. After 3 spins. I had a little bet on the 4th number and the max bet on the 5th.

It was as much the fact that numbers were popping into her head that made this seem like precognition (although you're obviously right about the fact that it took 5 correct guesses to make it remarkable). If she had have just guessed the numbers without claiming that these numbers were popping into her head then I'd write it off as coincidence. I knew her pretty well and she wasn't the sort of person to make something like this up out of the blue.

No, I'd only see it as possible precognition if they were certain they had the numbers right before they won.

You seem to place a lot of weight on the fact that the numbers supposedly 'popped' into her head. I am not quite sure what that means, but it seems to be a deciding factor for you, as if this is how precognition is supposed to work. What if the person was certain, but got it wrong? I have seen that happen many times. What does that mean? I guess the question is how do you tell the difference between precognition and coincidence?

Have you had a look at evo's basis for dismissing precognition on logical grounds? I know you dismissed it in an earlier post as 21st century philosophy, but do you understand why he considers it logically impossible?

Association. Favourite footy player's numbers, old girlfriend's addresses, that sort of thing. There's heaps of them.

My claim was that they had chosen randomly....I guess you would put that down to precognition then as well?

No. What's coincidental about someone claiming to be able to speak to God?

Where did I say anything about speaking to God? I was pointing out that your claim reminds me of religious individuals who ascribe unlikely events to the grace of God, or such. You have just ascribed it to precognition. In both cases coincidence could explain it without having to resort to the supernatural.

No. Just because it's possible (if highly unlikely) that it's a coincidence doesn't make it not so though either.

No, it doesn't. However you are going to have to do better than a once off unlikely event to convince me and others.

When people are guessing they generally don't claim a feeling of certainty about what is going to happen.

This is an interesting one. I bet that "certainty" was reinforced by the number coming up (ie. when she said the first number I bet she wasn't as certain it would come up). Hindsight can reinforce such claims.

I'm not going to definitively say that it was precognition. I'm only saying it felt like it at the time (to all involved and present) and still dose to me.

Fair enough. It certainly would have had the illusion of precognition if nothing else. As all such unlikely coincidences do.