will we need to be vaccinated to attend games in 2022

[pete and tys]

Sadly wasting your time David.
Like discussing the improbability of miracles with a fundamental Christian or other religious zealot.
Be reassured you are perfectly correct and to be congratulated for carrying the baton for the rest of us.
I am pleasantly surprised that the bulk of people here are sensible and enlightened.
I have no time for people with idiotic beliefs and long ago decided to leave them to their delusions.
Happy to get enjoyment living in the day and appreciating the lovely things in life without argument.

 

[Number8]

They often appear to be overweight opinionated chaps wearing MAGA caps. I guess being fat is a co-morbidity issue, there must be some thin Trump supporters out there.

EDIT apparently if you have a goatee in addition to being overweight and MAGA you're basically done for

Yet they're all eulogised in posthumous Facebook posts as such warm and gentle folk, despite the divisive and hateful nonsense they've perpetuated.

 

[Aegean Tiger]

Minor correction - a "break-through" infection is when a person tests positive to Covid 14 days after vaccination. IF it does happen, then yes, a vaxxed person with Covid symptoms is just as contagious as a non-vaxxed person with symptoms. The belief is still that asymptomatic "break-through" infected people are still a much lower risk of transmission than non-vaxxed people. The study cited was also a small sample, but there is work going into this area now.

There's an excellent MIT article here which discusses transmissibility (as in do vaccines limit it). The real world data suggests, yes it does. One through limiting infection, the second through reducing infectious period time length and virility. Not 100%, but yes.

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

The mission of MIT is to advance knowledge and educate students in science, technology and other areas of scholarship that will best serve the nation and the world in the 21st century.

medical.mit.edu

The data is complex and is still coming in, for sure, and none of us here are medical scientists - I know we have some doctors.

Quoting from the MIT article from 11 August:

"So, should you worry that a fully vaccinated person who may have an asymptomatic breakthrough case can unknowingly transmit the virus to someone who is unvaccinated?

I would say it’s not likely, but we don’t yet know with certainty, says Dr. Meyer. “Theoretically, it may be true that people are being infected by their asymptomatic vaccinated contacts, but we’re just not seeing that clinically,” she says. “And the verdict is out on this in terms of the epidemiologic data.”"

Going back to DavidSS original point, yes the 250 times viral load is in fact a comparison between pre-Delta infections and Delta infections, so he was totally right about that.

EDIT Pfizer is now FULLY approved by the FDA with Moderna to follow soon. These will all soon be fully approved by the TGA as well. On general safety and efficacy of the vaccines the data is now in.

Interesting article AA and thanks for the clarification. I note the article is dated 5 August.

The data coming out from Israel is incredibly pertinent in light of the early implementation of their vaccination program and high vaccination rates across the population. The following science.org article dated 16 August paints a more cautionary tale: https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta.

Again in an article dated 6 Sep we see that "despite high vaccine coverage, Israel has faced an exponential rise in infection rate in summer 2021 when the delta variant was predominantly circulating in the entire country." https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...lta-infections-vaccinations-and-boosters.aspx

Salient point is that we are living in unprecedented times. Things are moving very, very quickly. We need to be highly vigilant and absolutely rely on the data coming in from what is effectively a real time clinical trial on a global scale.

Only other thing I would add is that the full FDA approval only applies for the 16s and over. Approved as EUA for 12-15 cohort.

Appreciate the mature debate AA which is both important and necessary for us all.

 

[Aegean Tiger]

But it has been that way in history with vaccines. It would be at least 10 pages ago but someone linked an article from (I think) The Atlantic about how, on entering the USA back when the small pox vaccine was ramping up, you had to prove you had the vaccine or they would give you the vaccine on the spot. Plus, I have mentioned a few times how entering Australia from various countries requires (I figure this is still the case) verification of Yellow Fever vaccination. This is not unprecedented at all.

Aegean Tiger, you make some fair points, but the original post by TigerTime2 claimed that viral loads can be higher for vaccinated as opposed to unvaccinated people and cited an article which said nothing of the sort. The increased viral load is for Breakthrough Delta Variant Infections not Breakthrough Infections, there is a big difference and the article does not support implying that vaccinated people carry a higher viral load as a result of being vaccinated.

DS

Fair points to you also David. As indicated in my response to AA, things are moving very very quickly and we should all be very careful when making sweeping comments one way or another.

Not pointed at you David but I must also add that I hate the anti-vax/pro-vax rhetoric. Devisive language and totally not what is required moving forward.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Oh ok, so birthday parties for kids are dead unless parents of all kids show up?

I support vaccinations, I'm vaccinated myself (single dose so far), but I'm really struggling with the logic of the vaccine passport. It seems the logic of it is being used as a mechanism to force as many people to be vaccinated rather than whats its being touted as.

Herd immunity is regularly referenced, but from my non-medical background, it seems herd immunity is nonsense when regarding a vaccine that doesn't block transmission, but impacting the severity. Ie. you have 80% of the herd with the vaccine, they don't stop the 20% getting it as the theory goes so IMO herd immunity is a defunct principle when talking about Covid which is why I don't think there is a purpose to the vaccine passport.

IMO there should be a focus on 3 things.

1 - Provide vaccinations for all.
2 - Anticipate the proportion of people that will be not be vaccinated
3 - Model the impact of this on the health service

What these points allow for is, that herd immunity is defunct, and after a period of time of vaccines being available for all, you open up with NO RESTRICTIONS OR VACCINE PASSPORT REQUIREMENTS. The models that we have, will tell us what the impact will be on the health services and the government needs to be responsible for this, and ensure that the level of recruitment, training and equipment is sufficient to deal with the demand at whatever level of vaccination we get to.

Based on evidence from overseas this would indicate something like 2500 aussies in hospital with covid with around about 15% of those on ventilators and another 15-20% in ICU facilities, the rest would be dedicated Covid wards.

We have been told the entire way through the pandemic that the reason for lockdowns was to ensure that the hospital systems isn't over loaded, therefore we have dealt with this issue in 2 key ways, vaccination (reducing demand on the services by reducing the number of people that require hospital admission from Covid), resourcing (which enables the system to cope with expected demand levels following re-opening in full).

Anything else IMO is a halfway house and we need to ensure that at the end of this, a level of normality is what we are seeking. Checking in at every venue / shop etc cannot become the norm of our existence. It plays its part in a pandemic, but once this converts to being endemic in society, we ensure we are protected as much as we can, then we ensure that we have resourced adequately to deal with the level of inpatients. Once we have provided for that, normal service should resume.

Well said Mr P.

But it has been that way in history with vaccines. It would be at least 10 pages ago but someone linked an article from (I think) The Atlantic about how, on entering the USA back when the small pox vaccine was ramping up, you had to prove you had the vaccine or they would give you the vaccine on the spot. Plus, I have mentioned a few times how entering Australia from various countries requires (I figure this is still the case) verification of Yellow Fever vaccination. This is not unprecedented at all.

Aegean Tiger, you make some fair points, but the original post by TigerTime2 claimed that viral loads can be higher for vaccinated as opposed to unvaccinated people and cited an article which said nothing of the sort. The increased viral load is for Breakthrough Delta Variant Infections not Breakthrough Infections, there is a big difference and the article does not support implying that vaccinated people carry a higher viral load as a result of being vaccinated.

DS

Also a great post David.

 

[Tigaman]

I am in my 80's & over the course of those years have been vaccinated for this that & that which is why I am still living. I add during my 23 years in the RAN one cannot count the number of times one was innoculated (Vaccinated) when ones Man of War departed Australian shores for the Far East. Now we have Covid 19 upon us & witness the Vac Sceptics citing this that & that for not gettting the JAB. I percieve that 99.9% of those antivaccer's have not witnessed a child in the throes of Whooping Cough which is now non existent in the world due to vaccination. If they did I doubt if they would be antivaccers now. The Order of the Day is get the Jab. If you chose not just keep your supercilious mind & body away from us who do the right thing.

 

[YinnarTiger]

The data coming out from Israel is incredibly pertinent in light of the early implementation of their vaccination program and high vaccination rates across the population. The following science.org article dated 16 August paints a more cautionary tale: https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta.

Again in an article dated 6 Sep we see that "despite high vaccine coverage, Israel has faced an exponential rise in infection rate in summer 2021 when the delta variant was predominantly circulating in the entire country." https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...lta-infections-vaccinations-and-boosters.aspx

A few pages back, Number 8 posted an interesting link from the Washington Post that points out statistical anomalies (Simpson's paradox?) with the Israeli data that could have led to incorrect conclusions being made from it.

 

[H tiger]

I live in Florida (Miami to be exact). I feel for everyone in Australia in terms of lockdowns. We definitely did not experience any restrictions here.

That being said I have two kids under twelve. I do not want them to catch COVID. Although the younger you are the less severe the effects we do not know enough about what this virus might do to any of us long term. Accordingly, before I was vaccinated I was very careful.

Now, I have to send my kids to school, and I am resigned to them (or my wife or I) catching COVID because it is rampant here. Its rampant because of idiots who would prefer to pay money to eat horse de-wormer than take a free vaccine.

Get vaccinated. I got dosed in April. I'm fine. Getting vaccinated is the way to returning to doing what we want to do.

I want to come home to Australia, watch the Tiges, and see my family. Help me get home, help everyone in Australia get out of lockdown, help yourself.

 

[AngryAnt]

Interesting article AA and thanks for the clarification. I note the article is dated 5 August.

The data coming out from Israel is incredibly pertinent in light of the early implementation of their vaccination program and high vaccination rates across the population. The following science.org article dated 16 August paints a more cautionary tale: https://www.science.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delta.

Again in an article dated 6 Sep we see that "despite high vaccine coverage, Israel has faced an exponential rise in infection rate in summer 2021 when the delta variant was predominantly circulating in the entire country." https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...lta-infections-vaccinations-and-boosters.aspx

Salient point is that we are living in unprecedented times. Things are moving very, very quickly. We need to be highly vigilant and absolutely rely on the data coming in from what is effectively a real time clinical trial on a global scale.

Only other thing I would add is that the full FDA approval only applies for the 16s and over. Approved as EUA for 12-15 cohort.

Appreciate the mature debate AA which is both important and necessary for us all.

Thanks Aegean, yassou.

Will check out the articles you mentioned. Agree on the unknowns - it's pretty hard to predict exactly what life will be like for us even in 6 months.

I wanted to mention something TigerTime2 mentioned about viral mutation being driven by vaccination. In many ways this is true - viral mutation is driven by environmental factors and "natural selection", so vaccination is definitely something that virii will respond to. It should be noted that mutation is random, and not "intelligent", but a random mutation that is vaccine resistant will be more successful than other kinds of random mutation, so over time becomes more prevalent. Viral mutation also occurs independent of vaccination of course, and often variants might be less dangerous but more contagious, as it's not in the interests of a virus to kill its host- it just wants to replicate. And the good news is that coronaviruses generally are slower to mutate than some other virus types.

Of course this is not a good argument against vaccination, as vaccination still will guard against serious disease and death, and also transmission (research pending). But it does mean we'll have to adapt vaccinations over time to guard against new variants that are significantly different than the older ones.

Vaccine Q&A: Vaccination Rates and New Mutations of the Virus

Let's talk about mutations to the virus that causes COVID-19.

news.ncsu.edu

Will COVID Shots Drive Mutated Variants? Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola —— Based on the scientic evidence, the narrative that unvaccinated people are viral factories for more dangerous variants is false

Just as antibiotics breed resistance in bacteria, vaccines put evolutionary pressure on viruses to speed up mutations and create more virulent and dangerous variants  Viruses mutate all the time…

peckford42.wordpress.com

 

[jb03]

I live in Florida (Miami to be exact). I feel for everyone in Australia in terms of lockdowns. We definitely did not experience any restrictions here.

That being said I have two kids under twelve. I do not want them to catch COVID. Although the younger you are the less severe the effects we do not know enough about what this virus might do to any of us long term. Accordingly, before I was vaccinated I was very careful.

Now, I have to send my kids to school, and I am resigned to them (or my wife or I) catching COVID because it is rampant here. Its rampant because of idiots who would prefer to pay money to eat horse de-wormer than take a free vaccine.

Get vaccinated. I got dosed in April. I'm fine. Getting vaccinated is the way to returning to doing what we want to do.

I want to come home to Australia, watch the Tiges, and see my family. Help me get home, help everyone in Australia get out of lockdown, help yourself.

Is the Governer anti-vaxx? Seems to be anti-mask. Is there a strong anti-vax movement in Florida?

 

[AngryAnt]

Is the Governer anti-vaxx? Seems to be anti-mask. Is there a strong anti-vax movement in Florida?

It's Florida, so yes

Desantis is your usual pro-Trump anti-masker. On vaccinations he's "personal choice".

Here's the Miama Herald's editorial take

https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article253954748.html

 

[Aegean Tiger]

Thanks Aegean, yassou.

Will check out the articles you mentioned. Agree on the unknowns - it's pretty hard to predict exactly what life will be like for us even in 6 months.

I wanted to mention something TigerTime2 mentioned about viral mutation being driven by vaccination. In many ways this is true - viral mutation is driven by environmental factors and "natural selection", so vaccination is definitely something that virii will respond to. It should be noted that mutation is random, and not "intelligent", but a random mutation that is vaccine resistant will be more successful than other kinds of random mutation, so over time becomes more prevalent. Viral mutation also occurs independent of vaccination of course, and often variants might be less dangerous but more contagious, as it's not in the interests of a virus to kill its host- it just wants to replicate. And the good news is that coronaviruses generally are slower to mutate than some other virus types.

Of course this is not a good argument against vaccination, as vaccination still will guard against serious disease and death, and also transmission (research pending). But it does mean we'll have to adapt vaccinations over time to guard against new variants that are significantly different than the older ones.

Vaccine Q&A: Vaccination Rates and New Mutations of the Virus

Let's talk about mutations to the virus that causes COVID-19.

news.ncsu.edu

Will COVID Shots Drive Mutated Variants? Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola —— Based on the scientic evidence, the narrative that unvaccinated people are viral factories for more dangerous variants is false

Just as antibiotics breed resistance in bacteria, vaccines put evolutionary pressure on viruses to speed up mutations and create more virulent and dangerous variants  Viruses mutate all the time…

peckford42.wordpress.com

S'efharisto para poli AA.

 

[Brodders17]

Do all those who argue against restrictions for those who refuse to be vaccinated against Covid19 also spend their time arguing against the requirement for the yellow fever vaccination for those who have been in certain African countries?- you cannot enter Australia without it.
do you also argue against the restrictions on certain centrelink payments, and access to childcare, for those who dont vaccinate their kids?

 

[leon]

I wonder how many people with this view are also recreational drug users.

Anyone who watched the 2 part series Ramsey on cocaine that followed the process of manufacturing cocaine would be appalled what goes into the process.

Or are happy to get a heap of tattoos ... because all those needles are 100% trustworthy.

 

[Giardiasis]

Do all those who argue against restrictions for those who refuse to be vaccinated against Covid19 also spend their time arguing against the requirement for the yellow fever vaccination for those who have been in certain African countries?- you cannot enter Australia without it.
do you also argue against the restrictions on certain centrelink payments, and access to childcare, for those who dont vaccinate their kids?

Yes and yes. Do those who argue in favour of mandatory vaccinations also argue in favour of criminalising abortions?

 

[Brodders17]

Yes and yes. Do those who argue in favour of mandatory vaccinations also argue in favour of criminalising abortions?

Nice comparison. almost exactly the same thing. somehow.
Obviously you are against government intervention (I am sure Australia would be in a much better place without government intervention against Covid but that is a different argument), but I have missed your posts supporting the rights of businesses to refuse to access to those they want, such as QANTAS refusing to fly unvaccinated passengers.

 

[Giardiasis]

Nice comparison. almost exactly the same thing. somehow.
Obviously you are against government intervention (I am sure Australia would be in a much better place without government intervention against Covid but that is a different argument), but I have missed your posts supporting the rights of businesses to refuse to access to those they want, such as QANTAS refusing to fly unvaccinated passengers.

It’s up to QANTAS to decide for themselves, the same as any private organisation. The waters are muddied somewhat when private organisations take such measures to be rewarded by government privileges.

 

[Tigaman]

Which side of the fence do you want to be on after these two scenario's

A 100 people are vaccinated against Covid and one dies from complications from the Jab.

or

B The same 100 people are not vaccinated & 33 die from Covid.

iI think I will take take A thank you.

 

[H tiger]

Is the Governer anti-vaxx? Seems to be anti-mask. Is there a strong anti-vax movement in Florida?

Anti-vaxx? No. I am sure he got vaccinated before everyone else in the state. He has said people should get vaccinated at least once. However, he is not pushing people to get vaccinated because he doesn't want to alienate his supporter base.

Anti-mask? Definitely. He has actively tried to make sure that masks cannot be mandated anywhere in Florida.

Is there a strong anti-vax movement in Florida? Oh yeah. South Florida is not so bad, but drive a little North and the dueling banjos start playing.

 

[TigerMasochist]

B The same 100 people are not vaccinated & 33 die from Covid.

Hmmmm. Seems like a great way to ease overpopulation n man made pollution / climate change. All by natural selection too.