I've run a lot of theories around this over the years and never quite nailed it, mainly because I think there's a lot of factors at play.
There's definitely some game style factors, but when you really drill into ours our differential is often only because of a handful of players.
Nankervis is unquestionably elite at free kicks against. He goes at -.8 on career free kick differential. That doesn't sound like much but it's huge. Buddy Franklin who I believe is the all time leader in frees against goes at -.6. Tom Lynch is -.1 Dustin Martin -.5.
-.8 is the highest negative differential over a reasonable length careerI have ever seen and the second highest is -.7. The owner of that? M. Pickett.
Don Scott!! Don Scott!! Don Scott!!
No one gave away or had a worse +/- for frees than he did man. He cleaned up heaps of categories. Most Frees Against For Career, Highest Average Frees Against Per Game, 236 of his 298 games he gave away 3 or more frees for the game, that's 80% of his games played, Consecutive Matches With 3 Frees Against he holds that record as well. He went 24 games once conceding 3 or more frees, the second most was 6 games less at 18 games. And he also has the 5th highest run with 15, the 13th highest run with 13 and the 20th with 12 games he conceded 3 or more frees a game
Buddy might be the current day prophet but he'd need to play another 342 games to get to Scotty's 1,303 (Buddy on 657), taking Buddy to 51-52 years old
Don Scott is at -1.37 a game free kick differential a game, Alan Martello at 1.04 and our very own General Lee at 0.98
Common denominator is they all played in premierships.
In fact, the team with the highest free kick differential percentage wise from 1965-2023 is Fitzroy, they received 108 frees for to 100 frees against they're no longer in the league and didn't win a flag from 1965. Western Bulldogs have the second best differential 107 frees for to 100 against, won just the one flag. Collingwood at 4th best won just the two flags, Saints at 4th best won just the one flag.
The team with the worst free kick differential Hawthorn receive 92 frees for to 100 against and they've won the most flags since 1965 with 12 flags. Richmond sit fourth worst with 97 frees received to 100 frees against and we've won 8 flags since 1965.
20 flags to teams who have received more frees than against since 1965 and 38 flags to teams who give away more frees than they get. If you want to win flags, go extra hard at the man and the ball and maybe hold up the other teams run by giving a few frees away, might help aye
Frees against average per game
Most frees against career
The handbag whack grandma style over the head probably helped him