That is EXACTLY what the club is doing. This Nov there will be an injection of high calibre picks. We have NINE selections which will be rationalised down to four or five picks inside 30. Hopefully with one or two top 10 pics depending on how our swaps go.
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The Blair "Which?" Project
- Thread starter Tony Braxton-Hicks
- Start date
Freo just told you to f right off. Why would they give up 3 first rounders AND Josh Treacy for Logan Mac ?? LolI do love a crack at a mega tradeHows this one sit
Richmond In - Picks 11 and 14 and Treacy, Out Baker, 23, 42 and F 3rd
West Coast - In Baker, Pick 9, Out Picks 4 and 24
Fremantle - In McDonald, Pick 24, 42 and Rich F3, Out Picks 9,11, 14 and Treacy
Sydney - In Picks 4 and 23, Out McDonald
Who says no?
A second pic inside of the top 10 is vital in my opinion. (If Baker goes)
I'm no draft guru, but given that the bulk of our pics are in the ass end of the draft I'm not sure how many high end / calibre pics we can expect from 31, 41, 42, 49, 59, 65 & 70.
Perhaps our two pics in the 20's can be combined for something in the 2nd half of the 1st round (I'm not sure)
If Baker stays (and I'm not advocating one way or another), I wouldn't exactly call our pics selection an 'injection of high end pics'.
Your totally correct,but with bakes leaving and Graham also,add pick 11 bakes,pick 35 for Graham,now u can easily see us having 4 picks in top 30 with minor swaps for points at a minimum.
I don't think you are giving enough value to our later picks (assuming the bidding system isn't changed this year). All our picks (including our 20's picks) amount to about 2,800 in value. As an example, GC's 2 picks (8 and 10) amount to about 2,900. Clearly we'd need to throw something else in (or we might get extra value if we get a 2nd or end of 2nd for Graham). Adelaide if their pick is around where it is now (7-10) will probably trade it down. Brisbane will likely try to trade theirs, as will Carlton. There are quite a few 1st rounders this year that are likely to be traded, so it will lessen the premium that you need to pay for each one, compared to if only 1 or 2 change hands (its why I don't like some of the mooted changes to the bidding system as I think it will reduce trading of picks).
With our current picks, even without trading Bakes, we should be able to trade into the top 10 for at least 1 more pick and a teens pick. If we want to be bold (and GC will be looking for some of this) we may consider trading some of our picks from next year (possibly 2nd or 3rd) but obviously some of this depends on what the changes are to the draft system.
I'd be disappointed if we didn't come out of this with 3 picks inside 20 (4 if Bakes leaves).
Thanks for the break down / Info.
Why would the likes of GC, Brisbane, Adelaide and Carlton want to ‘trade down’ their pics?
If your assessment regarding being able to trade into the top 10 for one more pic (even without using Baker) is possible I would learn how to break dance.
Academy and father son picks - eg the Camporeale twins, Leo Lombard, Levi Ashcroft etc
As Wildride said, so they can generate better value by using lower picks for their father / sons / academy picks. Like what GC did last year, they have another guy (Lombard) who is tipped at the moment to go somewhere around the top 5-8, so they will look to trade both of their 1sts out, likely trying to get picks in the 2025 draft as they have heaps of picks later to get Lombard, which is why I suggested perhaps look at using our 2nd or 3rd next year too. There is a chance they try and trade these 2 picks up into the top 5 and get ahead of a Lombard bid.
Adelaide - Similar, Tyler Welch, tipped somewhere around the last top 10, if their pick is top 5 they will keep it, if its around 7-10 then I expect them to trade it.
Brisbane - Levi Ashcroft - Again tipped as top 5, they will trade this pick back.
Carlton - The Campareole twins. Both tipped somewhere from 10-20, their pick is right in between that, they don't have a lot of picks so they'll trade it back for more value.
There are plenty of 1sts this year that are up for grabs and with our draft hand we are in a good position to be able to give value to 1 or a few of those clubs.
You'd think we probably have a higher chance working with the brown paper bags for this reason than some others
One thing I'm surprised I'm not seeing talked about - do we go all in with a 5 in 30 this year, or do we try to pace ourselves and aim for 3 in 30 this year & next?
Reckon you massively underestimate Treacy's worth Posh.
21 year old 195cm key forward who's on track for a 45 goal season.
7th most contested marks in the league this year for someone his age is amazing work. He's a fantastic one grab mark and strong under the ball.
Considering the age and scope, reckon he's worth about pick 10-12 max on the open market. With a bullet.
Would be perfect for us in an area that is our single biggest need. A Vic boy to boot. If Bakes decides to leave reckon we'd push to straight swap them.
He's the best hope Freo have had for a key forward since Pav retired so they will move heaven and earth to keep him. Contracted to 2026 as well.
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I was referring to commentary in the general media. However, there has been the odd comment of similar ilk on this forum as well.
Agree on all this Posh and thanks for doing the hard yards/ listing it out in full.
But...
Gold coast can trade their 2 picks separately. Likely to do so and get better returns. I know you didn't post it had to be a package.
GC will trade but they have points in later picks for Lombardo (26, 30, 50). They can simply trade their firsts and r2 for future firsts, which we would be mad to do.
Now all is not lost. GC love a trade.
Both Bris and Carlton will trade their 1st, but these are unlikely top 10.
Come the year's end probs both clubs are in finals and the picks are 14-16.
Still worth trading for.
So how many top 10 picks up for grabs?
Maybe Adelaide, maybe GC. Maybe none.
But good pickings in 10-20 range
Adelaide perversely may becan opportunity to trade back. If we had pick 3 and crows 6 or 7, we could trade and get a very good 2nd pick.
It would have to be a very good deal for us.
The thing with Gold Coast, as you say they will try and trade for future picks, but who will trade them? I'm not sure what F/S or academy picks are next year, maybe someone has a ripper coming up and will trade out their 1st but it might depend on the changes in the bidding process. Assuming this year stays the same, then GC could be the big losers out of it (about time) as even if someone has a 1st rounder next year, if the mooted pick within 10-12 is real then some clubs may not be willing to trade their future 1sts any more (but they may have with the current system).
Lots to play out, but they may be pushed into a scenario that maybe isn't as good for them. For example, lets say we finish with Pick 3, do we take Pick 8 and 10 for it? Maybe even with something else coming back out way? We'd consider it for sure. It might work for us if we think the top end is fairly even, and it may work for them as they might still get Lombard and another top talent.
I think the changes (if any) to the bidding model may be critical as to how each side gets value out of the draft this year assuming this year stays the same.
West Coast don't have to trade to get Baker they can get him for free.
Sooo we better hope he chooses Freo
Sooo we better hope he chooses Freo
I'd suspect that by the time of the draft the AFL wouldve announced any trade draft changes.
So clubs will trade with GC.
Geelong will trade cos they want top picks.
Geelong 2nd (38) and future 1st for pick 10.
Essington 2nd (32) and future 1st for pick 8.
Melbin the same. Dogs.
Collingwood. Sydney.
The suns pick the 2 clubs they think will bomb in 25.
How do we do a better deal than that?
GC dont need points or picks for players.
They're probably trade pick 20 as well.
We can get in on this action
No way i trade 3 for 8 and 10.
It might work out. Maybe.
But we need talent like Cotch, Dusty, Lids.
And so we gotta aim high
If we finish with pick 3 I'd be looking to trade up to pick 1 or 2 to secure O’Sullivan. Norf currently has only pick 1 then pick 22; Hawf 2 then 38. Both clubs could potentially see Luke Trainor as a better fit than another mid (Norf more likely) and be willing to trade for 3 plus a teens pick.
