Not only did they change the way they recruited and changed the way they played, they also changed the rules.
How much more evidence do people need.
How much more evidence do people need.
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Steve Hocking
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
I think modern data would be key, has Geelong even always played at Kardinia Park? And has it always been the same?
There's another factor that I think might be important in that as well, and that is travel. Geelong sits with the interstate sides but they might well be because for a long time they were the only real road trip in the competition and it would have been a pretty decent road trip for many of those years.
Even now Geelong is one of the most challenging road trips in the competition. For interstate teams it means the usual flights but then you have to add on a 2 hour bus trip or you stay in Melbourne and then try and manage the routine on game day with a bus trip.
For Vic clubs it also means the drive before either on a bus or individually, players will often elect to stay the night before as well.
The other issue for away clubs is you might only go to Geelong once every couple of years so there's no chance to get into a routine like you can with regular interstate flights.
Going the other way Geelong has to deal with all that as well, adding two hours to every interstate trip and managing travel in Victoria.
Well they have that too since 1987. Geelong still at the very pointy end of the Vic teams. Shows the MCG tenants get very little advantage. Carlton had OO/PP for quite a while amd Ess/SK maybe with Marvel... Essendon a bit of surprise to me though. Their away record abysmal relative to their 55% at home winning percentage. I guess whether it is ground dimensions or disruption to normal travel routines - they are getting a meaningful leg up.
| Delta | Team | Home | % | Away | % |
2.84 | Fitzroy | 54-0-124 | 30.34 | 11-0-29 | 27.5 |
4.62 | Collingwood | 362-9-300 | 54.62 | 80-0-80 | 50 |
5.09 | Richmond | 289-9-331 | 46.66 | 74-0-104 | 41.57 |
8.12 | Hawthorn | 354-5-239 | 59.62 | 120-1-113 | 51.5 |
8.15 | Melbourne | 291-5-331 | 46.81 | 75-0-119 | 38.66 |
8.6 | Western Bulldogs | 320-9-295 | 52 | 85-1-111 | 43.4 |
9.97 | North Melbourne | 309-5-272 | 53.16 | 101-1-133 | 43.19 |
13.1 | Gold Coast | 46-2-94 | 33.1 | 23-0-92 | 20 |
13.9 | Sydney | 254-2-169 | 60 | 186-6-218 | 46.1 |
14.5 | Carlton | 313-5-327 | 48.91 | 58-1-111 | 34.41 |
15.81 | St Kilda | 304-10-300 | 50.33 | 68-0-129 | 34.52 |
16.02 | Geelong | 444-5-219 | 66.84 | 92-2-89 | 50.82 |
16.51 | Port Adelaide | 194-2-126 | 60.56 | 117-3-149 | 44.05 |
17.35 | Greater Western Sydney | 52-1-43 | 54.69 | 56-3-95 | 37.34 |
19.65 | Essendon | 361-9-276 | 56.58 | 64-2-110 | 36.93 |
22.27 | Adelaide | 241-0-146 | 62.27 | 137-2-206 | 40 |
24.05 | Brisbane Lions | 194-3-130 | 59.79 | 95-3-172 | 35.74 |
26.2 | West Coast | 299-1-139 | 68.22 | 166-5-230 | 42.02 |
27.07 | Fremantle | 195-0-144 | 57.52 | 87-2-200 | 30.45 |
27.62 | Brisbane Bears | 51-1-58 | 46.82 | 21/01/1990 | 19.2 |
Rohan Connolly summised it very well in his article from '21.
"Since that loss to the Roos 14 years ago (2007), the Cats have played at Kardinia Park 108 times. They’ve won on 97 of those occasions, and lost just 11. Yep, not even a dozen. A winning strike rate of 89.9 per cent. In a competition which is more even across the board than it has ever been, that borders on incredible."
There's no place like home...
I like RoCo's taste in music and politics but that is a very lazy piece. Zero evidence presented to make a case about the ground apart from teams 'seem' to kick it out on the full more. Do they actually or not?
Doesn't even mention travel as a factor when every player in the competition would have preparation and routine high on their list of important factors in success.
There's a stronger point made in the comments than the entire article when someone says the games Geelong play at home at the MCG are likely against teams that are having success and drawing bigger crowds at that time, which would boost their Kardinia Park chances.
It is an interesting exercise to look at ground sizes and dimensions. In the case of Geelong, I think it was WWII when they started playing at Kardinia Park, they used to play at Corio Oval, which is not there any more, was near where the East Geelong golf course is now from memory.
I suspect that uncurved wing at Geelong dates from the last renovation, it certainly is strange. The ground dimensions are a factor, I just don't think they are that big a factor. Also, you can't just look at the size, if you can find that thread where I listed all the ground sizes I also included a couple of pics, specifically GWS's home ground which has very shallow pockets, and the contrast with the old Brunswick St Oval which had deep pockets, just a different shape really.
Although I don't think ground size and shape is that big a factor, that 90% win rate to 2021 for 15 years is pretty astounding, there is some sort of home ground advantage there.
When people talk of standard ground sizes, I remember from looking at this that there are variations in other football codes too. I think it is Arsenal who have a different size ground from the standard for soccer, again a factor if history I suspect, it has likely always been that size. Some rugby grounds are different dimensions too from what I remember.
In any case this is the Steve Hocking thread, don't think he had much to do with ground sizes. As for the rule changes, I still hate them, they go against the freedom of movement which has always been a unique feature of Australian Rules Football. The game evolves and doesn't need knee jerk rule changes. There's a lot of talk about scoring and the media raving about how high the scores were in 2022, yeah, they are back where they were in 2018, hardly a revolution and certainly not a marked increase, average score in 2022 would have been around 83, less than in 1933. Plus, the goals scored per inside 50 is 23% which hasn't changed much over the period of the rule changes and is lower than it was in the mid 2010s and similarly, teams score 43% of the time they go inside 50, again not much change over the last few years and less than the mid 2010s. The one thing I do wonder about the scores and/or goals per inside 50 is the standard deviation - this would tell us if there is a change in this aspect in terms of the difference between the teams who have a higher inside 50 success than those who don't, in other words, the average may be the same but there might be more disparity between teams. Maybe one day I'll have a look at this.
DS
I suspect that uncurved wing at Geelong dates from the last renovation, it certainly is strange. The ground dimensions are a factor, I just don't think they are that big a factor. Also, you can't just look at the size, if you can find that thread where I listed all the ground sizes I also included a couple of pics, specifically GWS's home ground which has very shallow pockets, and the contrast with the old Brunswick St Oval which had deep pockets, just a different shape really.
Although I don't think ground size and shape is that big a factor, that 90% win rate to 2021 for 15 years is pretty astounding, there is some sort of home ground advantage there.
When people talk of standard ground sizes, I remember from looking at this that there are variations in other football codes too. I think it is Arsenal who have a different size ground from the standard for soccer, again a factor if history I suspect, it has likely always been that size. Some rugby grounds are different dimensions too from what I remember.
In any case this is the Steve Hocking thread, don't think he had much to do with ground sizes. As for the rule changes, I still hate them, they go against the freedom of movement which has always been a unique feature of Australian Rules Football. The game evolves and doesn't need knee jerk rule changes. There's a lot of talk about scoring and the media raving about how high the scores were in 2022, yeah, they are back where they were in 2018, hardly a revolution and certainly not a marked increase, average score in 2022 would have been around 83, less than in 1933. Plus, the goals scored per inside 50 is 23% which hasn't changed much over the period of the rule changes and is lower than it was in the mid 2010s and similarly, teams score 43% of the time they go inside 50, again not much change over the last few years and less than the mid 2010s. The one thing I do wonder about the scores and/or goals per inside 50 is the standard deviation - this would tell us if there is a change in this aspect in terms of the difference between the teams who have a higher inside 50 success than those who don't, in other words, the average may be the same but there might be more disparity between teams. Maybe one day I'll have a look at this.
DS
We should get Benny to become CEO of the AFL and force some rule changes to weaken Geelol and benefit us to even out the comp a little more. State of the game anyone?
Isn't the point Geelong has a home ground advantage? Ninety percent win rate over 14 years at any ground is unheard of. No need to disect the reasons why as it is obvious in the numbers.
I know one rule SHocking would be changing if Lynch did what Hawkins does in the ruck throw ins
So all this moaning and stats is gonna make them demolish KP is it? Lol. Other teams need to work Geelong out not work out a bunch of stats.
He is on sen and reckons when he walked back into the club, there were alot worn out people due to covid.
Neither Buckley or Lyon have asked him
How does a General manager of a sporting organisation change rules and then 12 months later walk back into the club you played and worked in? And now they are champions of the competition.
Do you think this flag is tarnished by your actions???
Neither Buckley or Lyon have asked him
How does a General manager of a sporting organisation change rules and then 12 months later walk back into the club you played and worked in? And now they are champions of the competition.
Do you think this flag is tarnished by your actions???
funny thing is they still only beat us by under a kick this year
and had to take out our most influential midfielder to do it
pffftt ...
There Achilles heal is larger opposition crowds. There's enough evidence now.
Collingwood has a good record against them. They never beat Sydney in Sydney.
The noise the opposition makes puts them off there game. Scott knows it because for 10 years he has been sooking of playing at there shithole instead of the G.
This year's finals, if Collingwood had lynch Geelong lose.
They play the worse pressure side in finals Brisbane and on Saturday beat up on a side that looked like it was a under 16 team.
Let's not get carried away. It's not the greatest win. Selwood isn't the greatest captain and Scott isn't anything special.
It's our own fault We didn't add more over the preseason and walked into this season half a sleep.
We didn't wake up till round 16.
who cares about home ground advantage and ground sizes. They had inside assistance to change the rules to topple their main threat and achieved success on the back of that. Well done to them and their cheating ways I say.
1. 666 rule to stop us using an extra man from the back of the square
2. kick in rule change to stop us holding the ball in our f50
3. stand rule to stop us manning the mark aggressively
Well done S Hocking. Masterstroke.
1. 666 rule to stop us using an extra man from the back of the square
2. kick in rule change to stop us holding the ball in our f50
3. stand rule to stop us manning the mark aggressively
Well done S Hocking. Masterstroke.
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The lack of media scrutiny regarding the timed rule changes & Hocking's CV has been telling.
Pinoccio is still slapping himself.
Don't you know Graig that's the best year of footy we we have seen but when we were winning them they were the worse footy they have seen.
