Should have Collingwood covered with a fit side in by then (no guarantees), but the other three spell trouble.
People will say last night put a line through top four hopes, but really, that was never happening this year and I'm not sure why it's been pumped up that way in the media. Anyone who reckons Carlton are the fourth-best in it has rocks in their head.
Had one of the softer draws to start the season which have made the Blues look better than what they are, never underestimate the value of banking a few early wins for the confidence levels.
Essendon last season had a soft draw and wound up in the eight. Blues aren't as bad as that lot, and the list is tenfold more talented, but it looks a similar story here in terms of the draw flattering a club. Bombers didn't have that luxury this season and look where they are now - having said that, I can't see a capitulation like theirs happening next season.
Making the eight and winning a final would be a big step forward and a bonus at this point, particularly after last year - 19-straight goals conceded to Port Adelaide being the low-point among a host of matches where even the worst teams (North) scored heavily and easily.
It's been a commendable leap forward this year in one pre-season, on and off the field with some scalps taken along the way, but let's be realistic.