Richmond 2017 AFL Premiers

[Harry]

can't say that surprises me. if you reverse a couple of those games we should have won earlier in the year, we finish clear on top.

Correct. We were clearly the best team during the year

 

[feisty tige]

Yes we were probably clearly the best team of the year but physchologically no one could convince me because I was so scarred .

Perhaps now I might enjoy the footy a lot more ;D

 

[tigerdave]

Going to Adelaide Thursday to watch The Oils.Does anyone know if the Premiership Cup is on tour in Adelaide? ;D

Might pop in for a look!!

 

[spook]

Going to Adelaide Thursday to watch The Oils.Does anyone know if the Premiership Cup is on tour in Adelaide? ;D

Might pop in for a look!!

Enjoy the show, Dave. I saw them on the Sunny Coast last week - still got it!

 

[easy_tiger]

Interestingly, I was chatting to an acquaintance on the weekend who develops software for a few big rolling professional gamblers. AFL is one of the areas he has done this for. As you can imagine, it's all very statistically based, not emotionally. It's certainly not full proof. Like for example, he said last year the software was always about 2-3 weeks statistically behind the Doggies' real world progress. So didn't tip them as premiers at any point. But seems to be fairly close to form more often than it's not.

He said, for most of the 2017 season, the software was tipping Adelaide as most likely premier, but not as clearly as many in the media would have thought. It had Sydney as marginal second favourite for much of the second half of the season, then us, GWS and Geelong pretty much as equal third favourites.

However he said someting interesting happened in the late part of the season. The Geelong loss at Kardinia actually caused the programme to make us pull marginally clear of Geelong (and GWS). The reason being that the computer rates Geelong a 3-4 goal better side in Geelong, so us losing tightly was statistically a win (if that makes sense). It also factored in that we played a man short for most of the game and that some of our best players were down on their statistical averages and rated it an anomaly (it looks for longer term trends on individual player performance).

Then futhermore, the flogging of Fremantle was the first week that his programme had us as leapfrog Sydney and Adelaide into marginal premiership favouritism. Then pulling slightly further ahead with the big St.Kilda win. From that point onwards his software had us clearly as premiership favourites and Adelaide as a clear second. Think one of his clients cleaned up, putting a pretty big outright bet on us after the Freo win, others making marginal profits, having more of a hedge strategy.

Ive been developing similar software over the past 40 years, except I dont have a computer. 8-

 

[23.21.159]

I've watched the game so much now I'm beginning to get to know the Adelaide players.

 

[easy_tiger]

gonna see if this works.

this is my favourite image from the GF.

<a id='tlRBIU61Txh3VXZUimPlqg' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/855735496' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;'>Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'tlRBIU61Txh3VXZUimPlqg',sig:'DNcVrOVA6xGYgqwLL_plmDQzrTxoS1jtMe0Oxcy3HgE=',w:'396px',h:'594px',items:'855735496',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>

 

[ToraToraTora]

Interestingly, I was chatting to an acquaintance on the weekend who develops software for a few big rolling professional gamblers. AFL is one of the areas he has done this for. As you can imagine, it's all very statistically based, not emotionally. It's certainly not full proof. Like for example, he said last year the software was always about 2-3 weeks statistically behind the Doggies' real world progress. So didn't tip them as premiers at any point. But seems to be fairly close to form more often than it's not.

He said, for most of the 2017 season, the software was tipping Adelaide as most likely premier, but not as clearly as many in the media would have thought. It had Sydney as marginal second favourite for much of the second half of the season, then us, GWS and Geelong pretty much as equal third favourites.

However he said someting interesting happened in the late part of the season. The Geelong loss at Kardinia actually caused the programme to make us pull marginally clear of Geelong (and GWS). The reason being that the computer rates Geelong a 3-4 goal better side in Geelong, so us losing tightly was statistically a win (if that makes sense). It also factored in that we played a man short for most of the game and that some of our best players were down on their statistical averages and rated it an anomaly (it looks for longer term trends on individual player performance).

Then futhermore, the flogging of Fremantle was the first week that his programme had us as leapfrog Sydney and Adelaide into marginal premiership favouritism. Then pulling slightly further ahead with the big St.Kilda win. From that point onwards his software had us clearly as premiership favourites and Adelaide as a clear second. Think one of his clients cleaned up, putting a pretty big outright bet on us after the Freo win, others making marginal profits, having more of a hedge strategy.

I must have that software installed in my brain.

 

[TOT70]

Interestingly, I was chatting to an acquaintance on the weekend who develops software for a few big rolling professional gamblers. AFL is one of the areas he has done this for. As you can imagine, it's all very statistically based, not emotionally. It's certainly not full proof. Like for example, he said last year the software was always about 2-3 weeks statistically behind the Doggies' real world progress. So didn't tip them as premiers at any point. But seems to be fairly close to form more often than it's not.

He said, for most of the 2017 season, the software was tipping Adelaide as most likely premier, but not as clearly as many in the media would have thought. It had Sydney as marginal second favourite for much of the second half of the season, then us, GWS and Geelong pretty much as equal third favourites.

However he said someting interesting happened in the late part of the season. The Geelong loss at Kardinia actually caused the programme to make us pull marginally clear of Geelong (and GWS). The reason being that the computer rates Geelong a 3-4 goal better side in Geelong, so us losing tightly was statistically a win (if that makes sense). It also factored in that we played a man short for most of the game and that some of our best players were down on their statistical averages and rated it an anomaly (it looks for longer term trends on individual player performance).

Then futhermore, the flogging of Fremantle was the first week that his programme had us as leapfrog Sydney and Adelaide into marginal premiership favouritism. Then pulling slightly further ahead with the big St.Kilda win. From that point onwards his software had us clearly as premiership favourites and Adelaide as a clear second. Think one of his clients cleaned up, putting a pretty big outright bet on us after the Freo win, others making marginal profits, having more of a hedge strategy.

Interesting. I actually picked up decent odds for the Tigers making the 8, then Top 4, then the GF and finally the flag as the year progressed. What I noticed was that the odds for each only shortened after it became obvious. You could still get good odds for Richmond making top 4 up to the second last round.

The evidence was before our eyes but most people couldn't see it, probably because it was Richmond.

I have been watching some of the games during the season. Again, the evidence that the Tigers are killing it is right there but few commentators see it. Curiously, BT, of all people, noticed very early. For most commentators, it just doesn't register. If you watch some of the late season games, you will hear comments like "The Hawks can't get out of defence because Hodge is out."

I guess 37 years of playing crap footy does that.

 

[Baloo]

gonna see if this works.

this is my favourite image from the GF.

<a id='tlRBIU61Txh3VXZUimPlqg' class='gie-single' href='http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/855735496' target='_blank' style='color:#a7a7a7;text-decoration:none;font-weight:normal !important;border:none;display:inline-block;'>Embed from Getty Images</a><script>window.gie=window.gie||function(c){(gie.q=gie.q||[]).push(c)};gie(function(){gie.widgets.load({id:'tlRBIU61Txh3VXZUimPlqg',sig:'DNcVrOVA6xGYgqwLL_plmDQzrTxoS1jtMe0Oxcy3HgE=',w:'396px',h:'594px',items:'855735496',caption: true ,tld:'com',is360: false })});</script><script src='//embed-cdn.gettyimages.com/widgets.js' charset='utf-8' async></script>

http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/855735496

 

[HR]

http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/855735496

that is a dream photo for sure.
He is going to someones submissive for ever and a day. Rag doll.

 

[tigerdave]

Enjoy the show, Dave. I saw them on the Sunny Coast last week - still got it!

Cheers spook - looking forward to it!

 

[JimJessTorp]

(Bit of a precocious gloat here but...)

Found a text I sent a long-time mad Tigers supporter on the 29th Aug.

 

[Midsy]

I still think the Knight Premiership Tiger looks like he’s under the spell of Kaa from the Jungle Book.

 

[CarnTheTiges]

Heard a caller on Fandemonium on SEN yesterday. Richmond supporter, downloaded a number of radio calls of the Premiership, listens to them all regularly in the car and elsewhere. His favourite is the 5AA call and largely because of the last quarter when Mark Bickley still held out a glimmer of hope, when we snuffed it out he said you can hear Bickley's heart break.

 

[Tigaman]

I still think the Knight Premiership Tiger looks like he’s under the spell of Kaa from the Jungle Book.

Midsy great post with the laminated poster. I have been trying attach a photo of my laminated posters but to no avail. Could you enlighten one on how you did it. Cheers Tigaman.

 

[wayne]

How can I get the 5AA call?

 

[Ice]

How can I get the 5AA call?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9YGdHE2bJF0NHh3NXNDLURHUEk/view

 

[seven]

Still waiting for my gear to arrive

 

[artball]

as okay as Knight is with his cartoons, he's got nothing on Weg