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Prime Minister Poll

Would you like this man to be our next Prime Minister?

  • No

    Votes: 25 38.5%
  • Yes

    Votes: 29 44.6%
  • A cheese sandwich would be a better option

    Votes: 11 16.9%

  • Total voters
    65
Liverpool said:
Its only a "stupid one" because you can't argue against it 8-

There was only ever one answer to it and you avoided it and have now decided to go off on a tangent posting graphs that have nothing to do with the question I asked...and gone to something that suits your argument.

Your response to MB78 was as weak as your diversionary tactics here.

You're becoming boring with your attempts to argue with every post I make on every thread I post on.

Exactly. If the argument is a "stupid one" then why is the 'greatest treasurer in the universe' so intent on getting one?

Oh boo-hoo, I disagree with you, deal with it.

There's plenty of literature out there to explain why surpluses and deficits are relatively unimportant to the overall financial health of a government and economy. If you believe that they are, and a surplus or deficit makes or breaks a government, good for you, but you are not as smart as you think you are.

MB78 can speak for himself. If you think the indicator he suggests is a good one, dig up a graph or two.

Why does Swann want a surplus? Politics, pure and simple - one was promised to deal with a perception, but that dooesn't make it good policy. Hey, guess what, I suppose I just demonstrated "balance" by criticising government policy.
 
KnightersRevenge said:
I don't disagree completely. However Ray Hadley, Mike Smith, Alan Jones, The Federal Opposition, The Australian, Andrew Bolt, Livers, et al. Are all trying to run a line on the PM as a liar and as completely untrustworthy.

they must be all be advocating a vote for the greens then.
 
It isn't all politics, there are reasons why a return to surplus at the moment is a good thing. Tightening fiscal policy has given the Reserve Bank room to cut interest rates without inflation concerns, which offers relief to the non-mining business sector that continues to struggle with the high dollar.
 
willo said:
Just a couple of things..
Yes, I agree with the 2nd paragraph, but the key word is "judiciously". From what I've seen, they have absolutely wasted $billions upon $billions. Only a buffoon would say that money was spent/invested wisely.

Regarding deficits, just a few questions
1. What was the amount of debt that the country is in now?
2. What was it 4 years ago?
3. What infrastructure or lasting legacy has this splurge given us?
4. Can the current government debt be serviced?
5. What taxes are they relying on to service them?

I'd like to know the answers, does anyone have them?


Good questions Willo-man - I don't have specifics but here's some thoughts.

Here's a look at our debt compared to other OECD economies (2011 estimates).

public-debt-oecd-countries.gif


So our public debt is very low relative to other OECD economies. I think it's inarguable that Swann/Gillard did the right thing by spending money in the aftermath of the GFC - this helped to preserve the relative economic strength of Australia. We've seen in Europe that governments that took a weaker position paid the price - as the economies collapsed, government revenues fell also.

3. lasting infrastructure - a whole lot of school buildings? To me it's probably less important where the money was spent than that it was spent - it got pumped into the economy and kept the building and construction sector going. I do agree that it could have been more strategic. One of the big problems I have with the "surplus" budget is that we have cut funding to universities, R&D and research/higher ed infrastructure. Big mistake, we should be spending more in this area, not less. I'm sure you could make strong arguments for other areas that missed out or will be cut.

4-5. The current debt clearly can be serviced - again it's the balancing game of a stronger economy produces more government revenue WITHOUT necessarily the need for new taxes.
 
With that chart, does it include state and local government debt as well? I know the question doesn't fit in the context of attacking or defending federal government spending, just interested.
 
mld said:
With that chart, does it include state and local government debt as well? I know the question doesn't fit in the context of attacking or defending federal government spending, just interested.

Not sure - but it should be overall government (public) debt, as it would be a pretty useless indicator otherwise.
 
rosy23 said:
If I didn't say Livers is one sided as you claim you should retract the comment. If I did say it I'd like to see the context.

Apologies. retracted.

I have had a quick look, but both this thread and the politics threads are quite large.
 
antman said:
Not sure - but it should be overall government (public) debt, as it would be a pretty useless indicator otherwise.

Agree, just asking because often overall debt isn't considered.
 
Ant is right, the surplus obsession is about electoral perception, and mld is not wrong either, a surplus is not a bad thing. The government have snookered themselves though by not getting on the front foot early on this. They are a stuck record on surplus to attempt to neutralise charges/ perceptions of fiscal irresponsibility. that is, trying to be like Howard and the Libs. Problem is, Howard and the Libs never spent anything, thats why they had big surpluses. (and they pissed a lot of the surpluses up against the wall shoring-up their voter base via middle class welfare, but I digress).

Its a battle for the government to try and run a surplus while trying to play catch-up for 11 years of infrastructure inertia. Trying to be all things to all people is always difficult.
 
tigersnake said:
Ant is right, the surplus obsession is about electoral perception, and mld is not wrong either, a surplus is not a bad thing. The government have snookered themselves though by not getting on the front foot early on this. They are a stuck record on surplus to attempt to neutralise charges/ perceptions of fiscal irresponsibility. that is, trying to be like Howard and the Libs. Problem is, Howard and the Libs never spent anything, thats why they had big surpluses. (and they p!ssed a lot of the surpluses up against the wall shoring-up their voter base via middle class welfare, but I digress).

Its a battle for the government to try and run a surplus while trying to play catch-up for 11 years of infrastructure inertia. Trying to be all things to all people is always difficult.

A bloke at my work who votes for ever who is not in power thinks we need a change in Gov every few years. He likes how the Libs save and cut waste. While he likes how the ALP make brave decisions and spend for the now. He thinks it is dangerous for the county to have one party in for too long.
 
MB78 said:
A bloke at my work who votes for ever who is not in power thinks we need a change in Gov every few years. He likes how the Libs save and cut waste. While he likes how the ALP make brave decisions and spend for the now. He thinks it is dangerous for the county to have one party in for too long.

This is a pretty common perception however as a Keatingite I have to defend the charge of ALP spending for right now. He was IMO the last visionary federal leader we have seen. Thought Turnbull might have fit the mould, we'll never know I guess. In particular the Howard years where his election spending sprees could hardly be categorised as long term thoughtful use of public funds. And nothing I have heard from Abbott gives me the impression of being either thoughtful or visionary.

The building scheme that has had a massive impact on facilities in schools across the country and the NBN which will position Australia at the head of the pack in a technological century are also what I would categorise as long term policies.
 
MB78 said:
A bloke at my work who votes for ever who is not in power thinks we need a change in Gov every few years. He likes how the Libs save and cut waste. While he likes how the ALP make brave decisions and spend for the now. He thinks it is dangerous for the county to have one party in for too long.

Don't disagree with that, in principle, but refer to KR post above. Personally i think Howard stayed too long due to the effectiveness of his handout strategy, which is coming back to bite us now, but thats just my view. It makes it very tough for the ALP as they have to spend big on infrastucture, long-term benefit, while winding back people's handouts. Tough gig.
 
this thread is getting right away from the original question, but here is an interesting article on gov debt in Victoria:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/a-loan-voice-of-reason-20121205-2avl3.html

on the original poll question Abbott still has a steady lead over the cheese sandwich for preferred PM. i think though in a real election the cheese sandwich might win out, especially if some tomato was added to the mix.
 
KnightersRevenge said:
This is a pretty common perception however as a Keatingite I have to defend the charge of ALP spending for right now. He was IMO the last visionary federal leader we have seen. Thought Turnbull might have fit the mould, we'll never know I guess. In particular the Howard years where his election spending sprees could hardly be categorised as long term thoughtful use of public funds. And nothing I have heard from Abbott gives me the impression of being either thoughtful or visionary.

The building scheme that has had a massive impact on facilities in schools across the country and the NBN which will position Australia at the head of the pack in a technological century are also what I would categorise as long term policies.

$million school halls & tuck shops was a waste of money. Pink batts, was another, cash for clunkers another, etc etc.
The biggest beef I've got is that the money could have been spend more wisely on infrastructure, such as hospitals, reservoirs/water saving/effiiciency upgrades, upgrading Tafe colleges, railway crossing blackspots, roads and other infrastructure that is badly needed and will have long lasting benefits. Rather than waste just it on absolute crap.
 
willo said:
$million school halls & tuck shops was a waste of money.

have you got any figures to back up the 'school halls and tuck shop' claims?
i remember seeing figures which showed that a much higher percentage of the money givne to school was spent on classrooms and libraries. sorry cant remember where i saw this.
 
Brodders17 said:
have you got any figures to back up the 'school halls and tuck shop' claims?
i remember seeing figures which showed that a much higher percentage of the money givne to school was spent on classrooms and libraries. sorry cant remember where i saw this.

Below is some brilliant work from "lamb22" a few months back, it includes some numbers you will find interesting, point 2 refers to the school building program:

lamb22 said:
Just coz its sunday I thought i might add this to the discussion.

Abbott gave a speech last week.

He said

'The price of free speech is that offence will be given, facts will be misrepresented and lies will be told.'
… and then he illustrated this exact point with this:

When roof batts routinely catch fire, damaging hundreds of homes and killing four installers; when $16 billion has been spent building school halls that could have normally been constructed for less than half the price; when more than $50 billion is being spent on a National(ised) Broadband Network that the government originally claimed could be done for a tenth the cost; when more than 20,000 illegal boat people have arrived because the government assumed there was no longer a problem and dropped the policy that worked; when a carbon tax that the prime minister said would never happen has been introduced to save her political hide; when a well-respected speaker of the parliament has been forced to resign to protect the government’s parliamentary numbers; and when the system of justice seems incapable of dealing swiftly with an MP who’s clearly ripped off union members, the ability to be critical of government is more important than ever.



Wouldn’t it be terrible if Abbott wasn’t able to give offence, misrepresent facts and tell lies as he has done above?

So many lies in just one paragraph.

1. When roof batts routinely catch fire, damaging hundreds of homes and killing four installers

Rates of fires for roof batt insulation under the HIP scheme were less than the previous average. In total 27 structural fires in 1.1 million installations. Companies that hired the installers have been found culpable of work safe breaches. One died of confined space asphyxiation. One was installing banned foil insulation.

http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/energy-efficiency/home-insulation-hawke-report-pdf.pdf

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/04/24/the-csiro-gets-hip-to-debunking-media-hysteria/

2. when $16 billion has been spent building school halls that could have normally been constructed for less than half the price.

First the majority of money was spent on libraries and class rooms. An independent review confirmed majority of projects proved value for money with a 97% satisfaction figure and the premium for speed in getting stimulus monies out was 5-6%. Less than $1 billion at worst. The figure 'less than half the price' pure BS

http://www.deewr.gov.au/Schooling/BuildingTheEducationRevolution/Pages/berit_news.aspx

3. when more than $50 billion is being spent on a National(ised) Broadband Network that the government originally claimed could be done for a tenth the cost

First the figure is wrong, its closer to $37 billion. The government is contributing only $27 billion with the rest coming from private investment. What is misrepresented always is that the investment will actually make a return estimated at 7%. Yes the government MAKES MONEY as well as providing broadband. The" tenth of the cost" again is a deliberate distortion because the previous plan was for fibre to the node rather than the more expansive fibre to the premises which is now undertaken, By way of context the coalition policy at the last election was to give away $6 billion to Telco companies to provide broadband without ANY RETURN to the government on those monies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Broadband_Network

4. when more than 20,000 illegal boat people have arrived because the government assumed there was no longer a problem and dropped the policy that worked.

We'll cut him some slack as it goes to opinion but asylum seekers have legal right at International law to seek asylum. For context on numbers and causes:

ttp://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BN/2011-2012/BoatArrivals

5. when a carbon tax that the prime minister said would never happen has been introduced to save her political hide

Julia Gillard said this the day before the election.

"I don't rule out the possibility of legislating a Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), a market-based mechanism," she said of the next parliament. "I rule out a carbon tax."

Julia introduced as promised an ETS which is almost identical to the CPRS Rudd tried to get through and failed when Abbott again reneged on Turnbull's agreement to pass the CPRS.

The difference is that the present scheme has a 3 year fixed permit period whereas the CPRS had a one year fixed permit period which has been ramped up by the coalition and accomplices in the media ludicrously to constitute a tax.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/julia-gillards-carbon-price-promise/story-fn59niix-1225907522983

6. when a well-respected speaker of the parliament has been forced to resign to protect the government’s parliamentary numbers;

Harry Jenkins has repeatedly stated he was not forced to resign. The missing context is that the choice of speaker would have had no effect on parliamentary numbers if Abbott had not again reneged on his WRITTEN agreement with labor and independents to pair the speaker. Liar and hypocrite.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-09-23/abbott-cant-be-trusted-windsor/2272180

http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/11/25/slipper-takes-the-money-and-runs-the-show/

7. and when the system of justice seems incapable of dealing swiftly with an MP who’s clearly ripped off union members the ability to be critical of government is more important than ever

Thompson may or may not have ripped off union members but numerous police investigations and independent reviews have not established any criminality and to date he has not been charged with any offense. In any event criminal law being primarily the domain of the states it is a bit rich to tie in the commonwealth government for a failure to prosecute.

Oh and as a post script later in the week Abbott talked about increasing powers to take down offensive facebook pages meaning that his defence of "offensive free speech" didn't last three days.

When will the media hold this moron to account ?
 
Brodders17 said:
have you got any figures to back up the 'school halls and tuck shop' claims?
i remember seeing figures which showed that a much higher percentage of the money givne to school was spent on classrooms and libraries. sorry cant remember where i saw this.

Did the govt approve schools more often or easily if they were in their electorate or a marginal one. I remember something about that when it was first being implemented.
 
U2Tigers said:
Did the govt approve schools more often or easily if they were in their electorate or a marginal one. I remember something about that when it was first being implemented.

The states implemented the system under the guidelines set by the federal government. That kind of thing would have been down to state government and I'm pretty sure in NSW helped get them turfed out on their ear.
 
Has anyone considered the billions in sold assets that can skew the figures to make a Govt look financially successful but have other affects on the economy? Howard and Keating from memory held clearing sales and made billions.