Palestine and Israel

[Panthera Tigris]

Unfortunately this conflict has no winners.

Israel will continue doing what they are doing (and probably intensify it).
Hamas may have felt they were out of options, but killing citizens of Israel will do them no favours, had they attacked the army, thats 1 thing, but killing citizens will just unite other countries around Israel, and the deaths in Palestine will be 10 fold what we have seen in Israel.

Horrible scenario, but because neither side will give an inch, the situation will unfortunately never be resolved.
Hamas don't like the Israeli solution (for good reason) and there is no chance that the Hamas solution (disolution of Israel) will ever happen.

Agree entirely Posh.

In the below article, some further interesting analysis on side features feeding into the latest iteration of the conflict.

The significance of why Hamas chose to attack Israel now

Former U.S. officials say the group and its Iranian backers tried to exploit Israeli political divisions and derail historic negotiations among Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[MD Jazz]

I have good friends who are jewish. A couple of them are quite vocal about their anti-Israeli government stance.

Same. Israel's gov't moving further right will only result in more death on both sides.

 

[mrposhman]

Agree entirely Posh.

In the below article, some further interesting analysis on side features feeding into the latest iteration of the conflict.

The significance of why Hamas chose to attack Israel now

Former U.S. officials say the group and its Iranian backers tried to exploit Israeli political divisions and derail historic negotiations among Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S.

www.nbcnews.com

and I think that article paints it clear. Netanyahu has been weakening, and as the article states that divisions have been appearing and an agreement with Saudi might have actually been a good outcome for Palestine, as they would have sought for Israel to provide land for a Palestinian state, but Hamas (and Iran would have been pushing their agenda through Hamas) don't want that, they don't want a Palestinian state UNLESS that Palestinian state exists in place of Israel. Its where Hamas have a stated objective that is not possible and will only lead to constant bloodshed unfortunately.

The deal being struck with the US and Saudi, was probably a step forward for Palestinians and the aim to create a stable Palestinian society, but this action by Hamas will set that outcome back years if not decades. I'm certain Iran have their fingerprints all over this. A solution that was suggested would have been favourable for the US and Saudi but likely to the detriment of Iran, so whilst acting as "their brothers" they have really thrown the Palestians to the wolves to protect Iranian interests.

Sad state of affairs and I doubt there will be a good outcome from any of this.

 

[AngryAnt]

Yes, Iran directly involved as they are the major power rivaling the Saudis - they benefit from preventing the normalisation of Israel/Saudi relations.

Agree that ultimately this will do the Palestinians no good - a tragedy what has happened to them as a country and as a people, and there is no real path towards a two state solution now.

Really good if depressing doco I've mentioned here before - The Gatekeepers (2012) interviews ex-officers/leaders from the Israeli security forces, in particular the Shin Bet responsible for internal security and counter-terrorism. They conclude basically that suppression ultimately can't work. Maybe it can though if they eliminate the Gaza Strip and continue to steal land in the West Bank and Golan Heights - a genocidal approach basically.

 

[Redford]

Yes, Iran directly involved as they are the major power rivaling the Saudis - they benefit from preventing the normalisation of Israel/Saudi relations.

And so too Antlers do the Americans with ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, because for as long as that conflict continues, the Americans sell billions of dollars worth of arms to Israel and keep the profiteering corporate warmongers with their deadly industry and massive profits content and happy back in America.

As if Mossad and the CIA didn't know about an impending attack on Israel. Mossad has thousands of operatives in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The Palestinians had to set up dozens and dozens of launcher sites, get thousands and thousands of rockets, plan dozens and dozens of attacks and captures, and Mosaad didnt know anything about it and the CIA didn't know anything about Iran helping them either did they ? F off. That would have taken eons of planning and people.

This is a war that Israel wants so that it gives them an excuse to take further land off the Palestinians, or eliminate them completely, and and its a war that the USA wants so it can continue to profit from it all.

I don't endorse what the Palestinians have done, but realistically what do you expect when you've (the Palestinians) been booted off the land you inhabited for a zillion years, get shoved and corralled into a tiny open air ghetto (the Gaza Strip holds 2 million Palestinians in a tiny 50klm by 12 klm piece of land), then have the same people who took your land off you (the Israelis) apply a martial law to you and control and dominate you economically and your very day to day existence and worse.....they keep taking more and more of that tiny spec of land from you to settle their own people ? Sounds like the WW2 Warsaw ghettos to me.

Its time Israel were brought to account as much as the Palestinians, and the world stopped listening so much to the USA-Israeli narrative around the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and acquired a history lesson of the truth.

 

[AngryAnt]

And so too Antlers do the Americans with ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, because for as long as that conflict continues, the Americans sell billions of dollars worth of arms to Israel and keep the profiteering corporate warmongers with their deadly industry and massive profits content and happy back in America.

As if Mossad and the CIA didn't know about an impending attack on Israel. Mossad has thousands of operatives in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The Palestinians had to set up dozens and dozens of launcher sites, get thousands and thousands of rockets, plan dozens and dozens of attacks and captures, and Mosaad didnt know anything about it and the CIA didn't know anything about Iran helping them either did they ? F off. That would have taken eons of planning and people.

This is a war that Israel wants so that it gives them an excuse to take further land off the Palestinians, or eliminate them completely, and and its a war that the USA wants so it can continue to profit from it all.

I don't endorse what the Palestinians have done, but realistically what do you expect when you've (the Palestinians) been booted off the land you inhabited for a zillion years, get shoved and corralled into a tiny open air ghetto (the Gaza Strip holds 2 million Palestinians in a tiny 50klm by 12 klm piece of land), then have the same people who took your land off you (the Israelis) apply a martial law to you and control and dominate you economically and your very day to day existence and worse.....they keep taking more and more of that tiny spec of land from you to settle their own people ? Sounds like the WW2 Warsaw ghettos to me.

Its time Israel were brought to account as much as the Palestinians, and the world stopped listening so much to the USA-Israeli narrative around the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and acquired a history lesson of the truth.

Agree Redders - pretty amazing that Shin Bet/Mossad etc didn't know about this - if they didn't. They will use it for their own purposes of course.

 

[Sintiger]

Its time Israel were brought to account as much as the Palestinians, and the world stopped listening so much to the USA-Israeli narrative around the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and acquired a history lesson of the truth.

100% . This speech is one of the most powerful I have ever heard. It was a number of years ago, Gerald Kaufman died in 2017. It is even more true today

 

[Panthera Tigris]

and I think that article paints it clear. Netanyahu has been weakening, and as the article states that divisions have been appearing and an agreement with Saudi might have actually been a good outcome for Palestine, as they would have sought for Israel to provide land for a Palestinian state, but Hamas (and Iran would have been pushing their agenda through Hamas) don't want that, they don't want a Palestinian state UNLESS that Palestinian state exists in place of Israel. Its where Hamas have a stated objective that is not possible and will only lead to constant bloodshed unfortunately.

The deal being struck with the US and Saudi, was probably a step forward for Palestinians and the aim to create a stable Palestinian society, but this action by Hamas will set that outcome back years if not decades. I'm certain Iran have their fingerprints all over this. A solution that was suggested would have been favourable for the US and Saudi but likely to the detriment of Iran, so whilst acting as "their brothers" they have really thrown the Palestians to the wolves to protect Iranian interests.

Sad state of affairs and I doubt there will be a good outcome from any of this.

Agree Redders - pretty amazing that Shin Bet/Mossad etc didn't know about this - if they didn't. They will use it for their own purposes of course.

One hypothesis…..

How did one of the most fortified, smallest borders to monitor. Backed by one of, if not the most well resourced, extensive intelligence apparatus in the world, become so porous as to see militia pouring through it in such brazen numbers?

It is a small, urbanised, entirely fenced (several metres high) boundary, monitored by cameras and motion censors. Israeli intelligence reportedly has quite a network of undercover agents and informants within Hamas and other Palestinian Militant groups. How did such an attack come as a surprise and negotiate through all of this?

There is a theory that it was perhaps half on purpose, let to happen.

Think about it. Israel is politically the most divided it has ever been internally. Some within it were even not dismissing civil conflict within Israeli political circles, not that long ago. Nothing to galvanise the Israeli political sphere and nation more than stoking a conflict against a common enemy.

Perhaps also manufactures an excuse to achieve objectives not finished in the past.

And on the Iran front. The attacks have their fingers all over it. Perhaps even trained, led and planned by officers of the revolutionary guard. For the Iranians, the Palestinian cause is just a pawn in their power play to wrestle away regional power and influence from their Saudi arch enemy.

What does Hezbollah do from here? With Iran pulling strings in the background, is there a concerted plan here to force Israel into a conflict fighting on two frontiers? If that occurs you end up with Israel likely taking direct action against Iran.

This is looking potentially even more awful. And will get far worse before it gets better.

 

[Tigaman]

Maybe Mossad CIA knew about it but under estimated the ferocity unleashed. A small incursion would have given Israel a reason to retaliate but its all gone skewiff. Great planning by Hamas cannot break through the wall so fly over it. Like a trojan horse scenario.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

And so too Antlers do the Americans with ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, because for as long as that conflict continues, the Americans sell billions of dollars worth of arms to Israel and keep the profiteering corporate warmongers with their deadly industry and massive profits content and happy back in America.

As if Mossad and the CIA didn't know about an impending attack on Israel. Mossad has thousands of operatives in the Gaza Strip and West Bank. The Palestinians had to set up dozens and dozens of launcher sites, get thousands and thousands of rockets, plan dozens and dozens of attacks and captures, and Mosaad didnt know anything about it and the CIA didn't know anything about Iran helping them either did they ? F off. That would have taken eons of planning and people.

This is a war that Israel wants so that it gives them an excuse to take further land off the Palestinians, or eliminate them completely, and and its a war that the USA wants so it can continue to profit from it all.

I don't endorse what the Palestinians have done, but realistically what do you expect when you've (the Palestinians) been booted off the land you inhabited for a zillion years, get shoved and corralled into a tiny open air ghetto (the Gaza Strip holds 2 million Palestinians in a tiny 50klm by 12 klm piece of land), then have the same people who took your land off you (the Israelis) apply a martial law to you and control and dominate you economically and your very day to day existence and worse.....they keep taking more and more of that tiny spec of land from you to settle their own people ? Sounds like the WW2 Warsaw ghettos to me.

Its time Israel were brought to account as much as the Palestinians, and the world stopped listening so much to the USA-Israeli narrative around the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and acquired a history lesson of the truth.

Noting too, that just like the Jewish population have varying and nuanced degrees of alignment with the Israeli government (from not at all, to glowing endorsement). Plenty of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - while obviously detesting their lot and Israel’s part in it - are also no fans of Hamas.

In some ways, Hamas are like fragments of the IRA and Loyalist Paramilitaries during the troubles. Ruling neighbourhoods through fear and intimidation as a mob or criminal racquet would. Murdering those who display less than puritan thoughts to the cause.

 

[Redford]

Noting too, that just like the Jewish population have varying and nuanced degrees of alignment with the Israeli government (from not at all, to glowing endorsement). Plenty of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - while obviously detesting their lot and Israel’s part in it - are also no fans of Hamas.

In some ways, Hamas are like fragments of the IRA and Loyalist Paramilitaries during the troubles. Ruling neighbourhoods through fear and intimidation as a mob or criminal racquet would. Murdering those who display less than puritan thoughts to the cause.

Similar. But not similar as well.

The IRA had/has tacit approval or at least sympathy from many western countries - in particular the USA where any number of wealthy Irish Americans have supported them financially and politically. And certainly, the western narrative drawn around the Irish Republicans and IRA and that of the Palestinians and Hamas, is vastly vastly different.

Not many western countries or wealthy benefactors within them helping the Palestinians - Hamas or no Hamas.

To this day the UN considers Israel’s occupation of lands in the West Bank and Golan Heights to be illegal and their treatment of the Palestinians a crime.

But the west turns a blind eye to all of that.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Similar. But not similar as well.

The IRA had/has tacit approval or at least sympathy from many western countries - in particular the USA where any number of wealthy Irish Americans have supported them financially and politically. And certainly, the western narrative drawn around the Irish Republicans and IRA and that of the Palestinians and Hamas, is vastly vastly different.

Not many western countries or wealthy benefactors within them helping the Palestinians - Hamas or no Hamas.

To this day the UN considers Israel’s occupation of lands in the West Bank and Golan Heights to be illegal and their treatment of the Palestinians a crime.

But the west turns a blind eye to all of that.

My comments were not really comparing the wider dynamics of the two conflicts though.

Simply discussing the recurring relationship themes between militant groups and the population they profess to represent (and in turn, violently control). And used the IRA and Loyalist Paramilitaries as just two examples. In actual fact, Loyalist Paramilitaries in Northern Ireland were possibly even worse for this dynamic than the IRA.

 

[DavidSSS]

I remember reading an article a couple of decades ago about how the 2 state solution was a fiction and was never possible. This remains true. In any case, the Israeli version of a 2 state solution would be for the sovereign state of Israel and the Bantustan of Palestine with no control over their security.

I don't know where Iran sits in this, they are more backers of Hezbollah than Hamas. Clearly it serves Iran's interests to try and stop any deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but I'd want to see evidence they were actually involved. Mind you, if Iran are being smart they would supply funds and not ask for details as the more people have details the less likely it is to remain secret.

You do wonder if the Israel security apparatus were willing to let a small incursion happen so they could justify retaliation, nothing like a security situation to distract attention. It is credible they could do this and under-estimated the extent of what Hamas were able to achieve.

Unfortunately the only real solution is a 1 state solution, but the demographics are such that Israel would never agree to that.

This conflict will continue while Israel has very powerful backers and the Palestinians remain without powerful friends.

For Israel the strategy for many years now has been to kick the can down the road while eating away at Palestinian land and repressing the Palestinian people. It sort of works for them as the Palestinians remain powerless.

For Hamas, although this action has been "successful" on some levels, they know it will just lead to more repression in the medium term. It smacks of desperation, but the Palestinians are desperate.

Hard to see any decent resolution any time soon.

DS

 

[Sintiger]

Noting too, that just like the Jewish population have varying and nuanced degrees of alignment with the Israeli government (from not at all, to glowing endorsement). Plenty of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip - while obviously detesting their lot and Israel’s part in it - are also no fans of Hamas.

Many, even most Palestinians don’t support Hamas. There was a recent story of a group of women in Gaza physically trying to stop a Hamas fighter launching a rocket in their street because they knew it would make their neighbourhood an Israeli target.
Netanyahu has warned Gazan citizens to flee before they are attacked. Flee to where exactly?

 

[Tigaman]

Hamas knew the retaliation by Israel against the inhabitants of the Gaza strip would be of large fatal consequences therefore Hamas do not give a rats about Gazains safety. Gazains live under the yoke of Hamas who is funded by every non peaceful country in the world. China mute Russia mute & the UN calling for restraint just like our Penny Pong. Peny must have a frog stuck in her throat when she uttered that.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

I remember reading an article a couple of decades ago about how the 2 state solution was a fiction and was never possible.

Hard to see any decent resolution any time soon.

DS

Exactly right. I cannot see any workable two state solution.

It's why over the past decade, some in the peripheral corners of the diplomatic world have thrown up the idea of revisiting the three state solution. As in, revisiting the borders of the period between the 1948 and 1967 wars.

In that hypothetical scenario, Gaza is absorbed into Egypt and the West bank incorporated into Jordan. Not that this wouldn't also throw up major obstacles. So I think it's just thrown out there as a least bad option talking point.

Some issues though. Israeli settlers into the West bank over the past 50 years is a major extra complication that didn't exist previously. Any agreement as such, would need to have the Israelis possibly agreeing to packing up and abandoning these settlements. And Palestinian Arab identity (which is actually a very recently developed concept) is stronger now than it was in the 1948-67 period, with plenty of obvious, political baggage. So absorbing these people somehow into Egypt and Jordan respectively creates difficulties. Would Egypt and Jordan want the headache? And what do you do with Jerusalem under that scenario? It nearly needs to become an internationally neutral city, governed under UN mandate, where residents can choose Jordanian, Israeli (or perhaps Egyptian) citizenship, based on what they identify as (a bit like British and Irish citizenship in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday agreement).

 

[mrposhman]

Exactly right. I cannot see any workable two state solution.

It's why over the past decade, some in the peripheral corners of the diplomatic world have thrown up the idea of revisiting the three state solution. As in, revisiting the borders of the period between the 1948 and 1967 wars.

In that hypothetical scenario, Gaza is absorbed into Egypt and the West bank incorporated into Jordan. Not that this wouldn't also throw up major obstacles. So I think it's just thrown out there as a least bad option talking point.

Some issues though. Israeli settlers into the West bank over the past 50 years is a major extra complication that didn't exist previously. Any agreement as such, would need to have the Israelis possibly agreeing to packing up and abandoning these settlements. And Palestinian Arab identity (which is actually a very recently developed concept) is stronger now than it was in the 1948-67 period, with plenty of obvious, political baggage. So absorbing these people somehow into Egypt and Jordan respectively creates difficulties. Would Egypt and Jordan want the headache? And what do you do with Jerusalem under that scenario? It nearly needs to become an internationally neutral city, governed under UN mandate, where residents can choose Jordanian, Israeli (or perhaps Egyptian) citizenship, based on what they identify as (a bit like British and Irish citizenship in Northern Ireland after the Good Friday agreement).

Whilst I'm not backing Israel here, the biggest issue i see to a political scenario (and that is the only way out of this mess) is Hamas. They have a stated aim of disolution of Israel. I know you mentioned the IRA yesterday and thats a good direction to look in. The paramilitary components of the IRA (I think they called themselves the Real IRA) had a similarly unworkable goal of uniting Ireland. It just wasn't going to happen, so when the IRA decided to become more political (and I grew up in the UK with the IRA threat around us, and the ludicrous media that had to have a voiceover for Gerry Adams) and actually bring political solutions to the table, thats when things started to moving in a positive direction.

Its far more volatile than the IRA situation on both sides, but until both sides drop the scenarios they are fighting which basically will only lead to mass genocide 1 way or the other, then no solution is possible and these types of attacks from both sides will just be an ongoing thing.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Whilst I'm not backing Israel here, the biggest issue i see to a political scenario (and that is the only way out of this mess) is Hamas. They have a stated aim of disolution of Israel. I know you mentioned the IRA yesterday and thats a good direction to look in. The paramilitary components of the IRA (I think they called themselves the Real IRA) had a similarly unworkable goal of uniting Ireland. It just wasn't going to happen, so when the IRA decided to become more political (and I grew up in the UK with the IRA threat around us, and the ludicrous media that had to have a voiceover for Gerry Adams) and actually bring political solutions to the table, thats when things started to moving in a positive direction.

Its far more volatile than the IRA situation on both sides, but until both sides drop the scenarios they are fighting which basically will only lead to mass genocide 1 way or the other, then no solution is possible and these types of attacks from both sides will just be an ongoing thing.

A three-state solution is the only viable future for Israel and the Palestinians

Ethnic cleansing is off the table, and non-contiguous states just don't work.

www.noahpinion.blog

This is another person's opinion on a so called 'three state solution'. Albeit a different iteration than what I discuss above. He does talk about exactly what you mention regarding Hamas existing with the soul purpose of ending Israel's existence.

Interesting read nonetheless. I'd add to this author's suggestion though. These two new Palestinian States he proposes, possibly would need more land to give them a better chance of viability. Particularly Gaza. That said, there are of course examples of successful City-States.

 

[Redford]

Whilst I'm not backing Israel here, the biggest issue i see to a political scenario (and that is the only way out of this mess) is Hamas. They have a stated aim of disolution of Israel. I know you mentioned the IRA yesterday and thats a good direction to look in. The paramilitary components of the IRA (I think they called themselves the Real IRA) had a similarly unworkable goal of uniting Ireland. It just wasn't going to happen, so when the IRA decided to become more political (and I grew up in the UK with the IRA threat around us, and the ludicrous media that had to have a voiceover for Gerry Adams) and actually bring political solutions to the table, thats when things started to moving in a positive direction.

Its far more volatile than the IRA situation on both sides, but until both sides drop the scenarios they are fighting which basically will only lead to mass genocide 1 way or the other, then no solution is possible and these types of attacks from both sides will just be an ongoing thing.

Yeah but Israel have sought the same dissolution of Palestinians. And for much longer, and with many more Palestinian deaths and displacement.

Hamas only originated in 1987 after decades of Israeli “dissolution” of the Palestinians.

I don’t endorse anything about or to do with Hamas but in the case of the Israelis, sometimes you reap what you sow. The 6 Day War initiated by the Israelis has been a 6 Decade Death Discovery. They had every right to be aggrieved by the Egyptians but their capture and displacement of Palestinians in Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian territory and their treatment of them since for the last 56 years, has been an unmitigated disaster for all parties.

That land does not belong to the Israelis.

 

[deedee]

Spoils of war, Israel will control all of Gaza by the time this is finished.