-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
OUR LIST FOR 2023
- Thread starter graystar1
- Start date
So far so good.Zips told me they are all duds.
Hopefully it was a really strong draft because we have all our eggs in that basket effectively. We've taken three years worth of low draft picks in one draft and really need them to come through.
People often think a late starter like Pickett will be able to go on for longer because he hasn't had the years of work other players have but it very rarely turns out to be the case.
The continuity of training years and building of body while young are critical to being physically robust as you get older. Putting elite training loads through an ageing body without those training years in it is very high risk.
One thing in his favour is he does have the sort of frame that tends to be very durable though, the Michael Tuck build.
2016-17-18 No picks inside 40. Hawthorn are very lucky they've had some real wins with late picks or they would be completely screwed. Mitch Lewis is looking like steal. Could be the next Jeremy Cameron.
This is our first year doing that. After taking 5 inside 30 the year before. We've basically spread one year of picks inside 30 across two years. Next year we own our 2nd, 3rd, 4th. And you never know what might happen, we might add picks to that.
We aren't close to the Hawthorn model. It's lazy to call it that and I know @mrposhman wasn't. He has put together a brilliant summation.
This is our first year doing that. After taking 5 inside 30 the year before. We've basically spread one year of picks inside 30 across two years. Next year we own our 2nd, 3rd, 4th. And you never know what might happen, we might add picks to that.
We aren't close to the Hawthorn model. It's lazy to call it that and I know @mrposhman wasn't. He has put together a brilliant summation.
23 rounds a season plus 4 finals =27 x 2 years = 54 games
he misses 5 games a year and ends up end of 2024 with 101 games & 4 premiership medals
Yes, good call.
The premiership question is can our older warriors maintain the sort of form and physical condition Geelong has managed to do.
Right now I would question that but hopefully a decent break and good run at preseason for a couple of years in a row will work wonders.
He's 100% bang on! The media don't research, they all hear 1 person say it then run with the same rubbish themselves. They are all on about 4856347693 different shows during the week so we aren't even getting different opinions. It's just mates catch ups at shedualed times.
I just checked. between '16-'18 National Drafts they took not 1 pick in the 1st 2 rounds & only 2 picks in the 3rd round combined. This is what is biting them hard now. We have gone about it a completely different way.
I am only guessing & hoping here but we should be looking to "manage" the older guys through the yr much as they did this yr, keep them fresh for when it matters. Even with them staying on we still need to get games into our youth to keep the regeneration going so that plays into that strategy should we be able to do it that way (pending injuries).
Isnt it incomplete to say that we've taken 5 picks under 30 last year?
Its lazy and biased.
We should be considering more years
2020 - earliest pick #40 - outcome MRJ, Ryan and Mansell= 1 probable, 2 possible
2019 - first pick #21 - Dow, Cumberland, Martyn, Ralphsmith, Nyuon = 1 probable, 3 possible, 1 delisted
2018 - first pick #20 - RCD, Ross, Turner, English, Aarts, = 1 probable, 4 delisted
2017 - first pick #17 - Higgins, CCJ, Balta, Naish, Miller = 1 probable, 1 possible, 3 delisted/traded
So over 4 years we have 4 probable/definite top 22. Just 4
There is possibility for more, but most possibles are very under-exposed
(eg Biggie, Miller, Ryan looking good at VFL level is a long way from AFL)
To maintain a side that can average a 10 year career requires 2 successful draftees each year. To maintain the level of senior stability (not counting star power)
In essence the 2021 5 in 30 has backfilled the 2017-2020 gaps. We shouldnt be double-counting it to cover 2022 and 2023.
Its lazy and biased.
We should be considering more years
2020 - earliest pick #40 - outcome MRJ, Ryan and Mansell= 1 probable, 2 possible
2019 - first pick #21 - Dow, Cumberland, Martyn, Ralphsmith, Nyuon = 1 probable, 3 possible, 1 delisted
2018 - first pick #20 - RCD, Ross, Turner, English, Aarts, = 1 probable, 4 delisted
2017 - first pick #17 - Higgins, CCJ, Balta, Naish, Miller = 1 probable, 1 possible, 3 delisted/traded
So over 4 years we have 4 probable/definite top 22. Just 4
There is possibility for more, but most possibles are very under-exposed
(eg Biggie, Miller, Ryan looking good at VFL level is a long way from AFL)
To maintain a side that can average a 10 year career requires 2 successful draftees each year. To maintain the level of senior stability (not counting star power)
In essence the 2021 5 in 30 has backfilled the 2017-2020 gaps. We shouldnt be double-counting it to cover 2022 and 2023.
As you get older there is that concern.
But getting both Hop & TT & expected improvement out of Sonsie/Ross gives us abit of flexibility in regards to "resting" the likes of Cotch/Meatball and even Dusty.
Must admit our problem is up fwd.Although i do like the idea of Gibcus up fwd if needed.More switched on than balta.imo.
I think they're stuffed for a fair while.
Could name only 1 player over 21 who'd get a game for us.
James Sicily
Highlights how bloody difficult it can be trying to add premium talent through the draft while you are constantly playing finals n winning flags. That's the original AFL boom n bust scenario anticipated when they first set up the draft system. Then with all the tinkering n fiddling of player trades, pick trades n future pick trades the AFL have opened the worm can up for manipulation again.
Moggies have used one system to remain constantly in the hunt of finals and flags, winning four flags and been extremely consistent over the last 16 or 17 years.
Hawforn have used a different system played heaps of finals and also won four flags over a much shorter 8 year period but have been struggling in recent years.
We appear to be trying to utilise all the aspects of the draft and trade systems to maintain finals and flag contention for as long as possible, but it's extremely difficult.
And list problems cannot be solved in a short time frame. Need to use multiple years and hope you beat the averages
That may be true but Blair Hartley made a different point about Marlion. Because of his background he has not come through the elite system so when he came to us his fitness base and understanding of what it takes to be an afl player was not as developed as a normal 27 year old player.
Blair said his fitness, professionalism and understanding of the game has improved every year and for that reason thinks his best is still in front of him.
You're right its a tough battle to get premium talent.
Importantly the elite players need to be surrounded by a core of high level quality footballers.
A case in point was Freo with Fyfe and Walters starring but the team was ordinary.
We are hughly unlikely to draft players like Dusty or Cotch with picks 17 to 25.
The elite can be brought in as Free Agency.
But we need the 2nd tier of very good players - Flossy, Lambo, Shedda, Grimes.
And if we are consistent with the draft, we need to get 2 very good players every year.
For the last 4 years we've gone below par, so last years 5 in 30 has only brought us back to level.
We,re not ahead of the curve with our young brigade imo
The other thing is there is a lot of assumption being made that those 5 will make it.
I'd be interested to see the stats on clubs strike rates when taking so many picks in the same draft. Drafting is hard.
<
Thursty to NM
|
CBA
>
