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Only 3 Teams Can Win the 2015 Premiership (Haw/Syd/Port). Agree or Disagree?
- Thread starter Ian4
- Start date
That's what the market thinks, Ian.
Only 3 Teams [have established that they] Can Win the 2015 Premiership (Haw/Syd/Port).
I reckon that this statement is 100% true.
Some may argue that Geelong or Fremantle have established that they can. I think the opposite is the case. FWIW I'm potting the sh!t out of Freo. Way unders.
For the three established candidates missing the four would amount to failure for the year. Fifth is fine for any other team.
How then could Hawthorn miss the four? What circumstances could bring that about? Injury. Combined with geriatrica. Mitchell and Lake are great examples of very sound geriatrics. Mitchell has to be managed more because of his inside role. But he is sound enough. Gibson is younger chronologically but more at risk. Hale is a well managed crock. Despite a champion's GF Hodge is well into his dotage. Burgoyne is in career best form but he is rising 30. Rioli is about 32yo in my view.
They are brilliantly managed for physical soundness, for injury and geriatrics. So the crippled Frawley will almost certainly be fit on the park.
But they are geriatric. Premiership wise the arse will certainly fall out of them within two years. There is no youth. (We're not gunna talk about Jono, are we?) Some time in the next three years the Hawthorn spinners will be sending down the 'planned periodic reconstruction' ball and nobody will complain because the three plus premierships. Meanwhile they are rightly threes on for the four.
In 2014 Sydney was poorly managed for soundness, playing regularly cripples of all ages. They could not but have learned. And they do have youth. Their mids are in their twenties. Their gerries Goodes, Pyke, Richards, Grundy are not the key players. Mind you they look sh!thouse in defence when Richards and Grundy can't walk, which in 2014 was only on the weekends. And there's only one Pyke, who can't walk. And neither could Tippett last year. With a full and fit side on the park they don't need much from Goodes. He's not the lynchpin. It's the tall back and ruck disaster that follows when those blokes aren't right.
Are Sydney's cripples gone? Are they finished? Because Sydney won't win the premiership if they are. And if on top of that younger crocks like Tippett, Jack, and Kennedy (up to a point) are curtailed as they were in 2014 they won't make the four.
Port Adelaide is all about maturing players. Their Achilles' heel in terms of injury/geriatrics is Schulz. I think that despite an injury-plagued career prior to 2014 Robbie Gray is right now. I hope so. He's a little champ. But because he's a little champ he has to be risk assessed. And if the Power can't cover Cornes this year they shouldn't be in the market. I think they are very low risk for injury/decay of personnel. Ryder is a very good addition not just because he takes heat off the ageing Sarge but because he complements Lobbe brilliantly. Port now boasts the best ruck combo in the comp.
If you want to pot Port for 2015 it has to be about their exposure. That they ambushed the comp last year with gameplan and playing style and opponents will be better educated now in how to counter that. That's definitely true to some extent. But they will improve through maturity. Wines, Hartlett, Lobbe, Polec, Pittard will continue to mature.
My other reservation about them is that after their top echelon (Gray, Boak, Wines, Schulz, Westhoff, Lobbe, Ebert, Ryder - a very fine group) the players are either very home brand or quite flawed. Hartlett, for example, improved his consistency and concentration in 2014 but you'd be after him in 2015. Carlile and Trengove are very much budget tall backs. Kane Mitchell is 23rd man. That's not plain wrap - it's clearance bin.
I wouldn't be laying any of the three just yet. They are about the right price as it stands.
For fourth I'm interested in Richmond, North, Essendon (subject to). The TAB is still betting $6 about Richmond for the four. Wrong price.
Only 3 Teams [have established that they] Can Win the 2015 Premiership (Haw/Syd/Port).
I reckon that this statement is 100% true.
Some may argue that Geelong or Fremantle have established that they can. I think the opposite is the case. FWIW I'm potting the sh!t out of Freo. Way unders.
For the three established candidates missing the four would amount to failure for the year. Fifth is fine for any other team.
How then could Hawthorn miss the four? What circumstances could bring that about? Injury. Combined with geriatrica. Mitchell and Lake are great examples of very sound geriatrics. Mitchell has to be managed more because of his inside role. But he is sound enough. Gibson is younger chronologically but more at risk. Hale is a well managed crock. Despite a champion's GF Hodge is well into his dotage. Burgoyne is in career best form but he is rising 30. Rioli is about 32yo in my view.
They are brilliantly managed for physical soundness, for injury and geriatrics. So the crippled Frawley will almost certainly be fit on the park.
But they are geriatric. Premiership wise the arse will certainly fall out of them within two years. There is no youth. (We're not gunna talk about Jono, are we?) Some time in the next three years the Hawthorn spinners will be sending down the 'planned periodic reconstruction' ball and nobody will complain because the three plus premierships. Meanwhile they are rightly threes on for the four.
In 2014 Sydney was poorly managed for soundness, playing regularly cripples of all ages. They could not but have learned. And they do have youth. Their mids are in their twenties. Their gerries Goodes, Pyke, Richards, Grundy are not the key players. Mind you they look sh!thouse in defence when Richards and Grundy can't walk, which in 2014 was only on the weekends. And there's only one Pyke, who can't walk. And neither could Tippett last year. With a full and fit side on the park they don't need much from Goodes. He's not the lynchpin. It's the tall back and ruck disaster that follows when those blokes aren't right.
Are Sydney's cripples gone? Are they finished? Because Sydney won't win the premiership if they are. And if on top of that younger crocks like Tippett, Jack, and Kennedy (up to a point) are curtailed as they were in 2014 they won't make the four.
Port Adelaide is all about maturing players. Their Achilles' heel in terms of injury/geriatrics is Schulz. I think that despite an injury-plagued career prior to 2014 Robbie Gray is right now. I hope so. He's a little champ. But because he's a little champ he has to be risk assessed. And if the Power can't cover Cornes this year they shouldn't be in the market. I think they are very low risk for injury/decay of personnel. Ryder is a very good addition not just because he takes heat off the ageing Sarge but because he complements Lobbe brilliantly. Port now boasts the best ruck combo in the comp.
If you want to pot Port for 2015 it has to be about their exposure. That they ambushed the comp last year with gameplan and playing style and opponents will be better educated now in how to counter that. That's definitely true to some extent. But they will improve through maturity. Wines, Hartlett, Lobbe, Polec, Pittard will continue to mature.
My other reservation about them is that after their top echelon (Gray, Boak, Wines, Schulz, Westhoff, Lobbe, Ebert, Ryder - a very fine group) the players are either very home brand or quite flawed. Hartlett, for example, improved his consistency and concentration in 2014 but you'd be after him in 2015. Carlile and Trengove are very much budget tall backs. Kane Mitchell is 23rd man. That's not plain wrap - it's clearance bin.
I wouldn't be laying any of the three just yet. They are about the right price as it stands.
For fourth I'm interested in Richmond, North, Essendon (subject to). The TAB is still betting $6 about Richmond for the four. Wrong price.
Could read the great man opine about it all day. Dyer'ere is by far the most fascinating poster on here. By far. Don't agree with some of that but by golly I read it with a smile.
I'm with you Freo, are the one's to miss the four, if a lot goes wrong maybe the eight. The era of Rossy is over. He is the T-Rex just before the wind changed direction. Unless he injects some youth and rolls the dice, I don't see it. Bar Walters, the forward line is terrible. And Zac Dawson is a great defender when Rossy puts 14 guys in front of him in the 50. Geelong, mystery. If Mitch Clark gets 45 goals, if Nakia does a Cyril 2008, if Caddy, Guthrie and Duncan further improve, they are a chance for the four. But if Hawkins or Selwood miss extended time, it's over for them.
And Essendon, no way they are cleared. The Drug scandal will give them a historic excuse to defend a side that wasn't good enough to start with. "But it would've been" will be the war cry from the most feral supporter base in the land.
But the top three? It's set. And Sydney are the best set for it to continue for a while. Issac Heeney is top shelf. Would've been top 3 this year. Callum Mills from this years draft is even better again. At this stage is the clear cut best player in the draft pool. But the Swans have first rights. They are both from the academy system. Free hits. And a top 4 side adding top calibre top 4 talent midfielders is a generational shift of epic proportions. Keeps the finals window alive for another 5 years.
I'm with you Freo, are the one's to miss the four, if a lot goes wrong maybe the eight. The era of Rossy is over. He is the T-Rex just before the wind changed direction. Unless he injects some youth and rolls the dice, I don't see it. Bar Walters, the forward line is terrible. And Zac Dawson is a great defender when Rossy puts 14 guys in front of him in the 50. Geelong, mystery. If Mitch Clark gets 45 goals, if Nakia does a Cyril 2008, if Caddy, Guthrie and Duncan further improve, they are a chance for the four. But if Hawkins or Selwood miss extended time, it's over for them.
And Essendon, no way they are cleared. The Drug scandal will give them a historic excuse to defend a side that wasn't good enough to start with. "But it would've been" will be the war cry from the most feral supporter base in the land.
But the top three? It's set. And Sydney are the best set for it to continue for a while. Issac Heeney is top shelf. Would've been top 3 this year. Callum Mills from this years draft is even better again. At this stage is the clear cut best player in the draft pool. But the Swans have first rights. They are both from the academy system. Free hits. And a top 4 side adding top calibre top 4 talent midfielders is a generational shift of epic proportions. Keeps the finals window alive for another 5 years.
Heh heh. Glad you enjoyed, SCOOPer.
I'm ok with the Cats and I think Clark could be a boon for them but after Selwood and Stevie J I am deeply not in love with their midfield group. And they are the benchmark club for longevity of geriatrics. (I suspect they farm local inbreds for spare limb components.)
The market is saying Essendon will get off. I don't have an opinion on the likelihoods atm. If they are suspended other competitors will shorten, for example Richmond.
And after we *smile* the Carlton puppy we will shorten. So I think it's time to take the $6 about the Tiges.
My feeling is that seasons with such firmly established expectations can be the most volatile and if the conventional wisdom shows cracks I'll be in the van of the new thinking this year.
I'm ok with the Cats and I think Clark could be a boon for them but after Selwood and Stevie J I am deeply not in love with their midfield group. And they are the benchmark club for longevity of geriatrics. (I suspect they farm local inbreds for spare limb components.)
The market is saying Essendon will get off. I don't have an opinion on the likelihoods atm. If they are suspended other competitors will shorten, for example Richmond.
And after we *smile* the Carlton puppy we will shorten. So I think it's time to take the $6 about the Tiges.
My feeling is that seasons with such firmly established expectations can be the most volatile and if the conventional wisdom shows cracks I'll be in the van of the new thinking this year.
On the climb up the ladder there are aberrations. Was last year the step back for Richmond?
As many have said, there are no certainties and this season will be close. They all are.
Natural improvement, Dusty, Ellis, Vlastuin Lennon, Lloyd, some of the Macs and Conca "should" all see significant improvement. Fingers crossed.
The game plan is the most important improvement I feel.
Some one posted that after watching the replay against Norf, it looked like we were in cruise control and not really putting the foot down, did anyone else have a similar opinion?
We have been very quiet this off season, is this all part of it? Don't give anything away, come out and blitz the opposition in the real stuff?
As many have said, there are no certainties and this season will be close. They all are.
Natural improvement, Dusty, Ellis, Vlastuin Lennon, Lloyd, some of the Macs and Conca "should" all see significant improvement. Fingers crossed.
The game plan is the most important improvement I feel.
Some one posted that after watching the replay against Norf, it looked like we were in cruise control and not really putting the foot down, did anyone else have a similar opinion?
We have been very quiet this off season, is this all part of it? Don't give anything away, come out and blitz the opposition in the real stuff?
