Interesting, Bosa said he thought that 4th down stop by the Niners instead of going for the FG was the critical part of the game, and changed the momentum entirely.
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- Thread starter Col.E.Kurtz
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Yeh I saw that interview. And it's true. That changed the game. 27-10 would have still been such a huge mental hurdle. The momentum shift was enormous. And it was 4th and a long 2, not 4th and inches with a QB that can run the ball.
This argument about that is how they played all year does not wash. The game situation screamed field goal. Don't give them a sniff.
I dont like them that much, but that’s what McFarland and Berman both said. Niners were being pummeled and 27-10 would have finished them off enough.
There were two in the second half. One was on the SF 28 4th and 2. The other was on the SF 30 4th and 3.
The first one was the killer for me. It would have put them 3 scores clear a few minutes into the 3rd qtr. The second the 9ers made the stop the players and crowd got a lift. Then a miracle catch (from a missed interception mind you) then the fumble. They couldn't tackle Purdy. Their special teams unit stuffed up a punt that should have forced the 9ers to start from their 1 yd line. Everything went wrong from that decision.
That missed interception was ridiculous. Had it with both hands, completely fresh aired it and hit his helmet and bounced back to the 49ers WR to get to the 5. When should have been incomplete or intercepted. In NFL so many ways to stuff it up.
None of the errors happen if Dan make the right decision at the right time.
It's like Pete Carroll not going beast mode in the SB.
Dan precipitated the fall.
I mean they had had some luck with FG miss by 49ers and a great play causing a turnover on a 99% 49ers touchdown poking the ball out as the rusher crossed.
Yep - I get the maths of going for fourth down, but not playing the game situation seemed crazy. Take the three score lead and you put all sorts of pressure on the opposition. 4th and 2 or 4th and 3 is so different to 4th and inches. If you take it to an extreme with 1 second left and 4th and goal at the 4 and scores tied do you kick a field goal or go for the TD? He was entering this kind of area where clock and game situation just meant take the points because it almost guarantees the opposition is in a world of hurt.
The interesting thing though is if you look at the analytics it actually favored the going for it slightly! So maybe he was right even though he was wrong.
Hah hah hah Stephen A Smith and co calling Lamar Jackson a “choke job”. Might be a bit extreme but he’s an average passing QB just the same. Completely overpaid. All his running throws his offense out of sync. Can’t stand QB’s that run run run because they are too scared to stay in the pocket and complete the play call. It eventually catches up with you ( bad memories of Colin Kapernick).
The Ravens have always had good defenses, but their offense has always been let down by Jackson, ultimately. Their defense covers up the gaping holes in his game.
And now they’re stuck with him at 5 for $260 million. Criminal.
The Ravens have always had good defenses, but their offense has always been let down by Jackson, ultimately. Their defense covers up the gaping holes in his game.
And now they’re stuck with him at 5 for $260 million. Criminal.
Of the other 9 quarterbacks in NFL history who have won the MVP twice, all of them have won a SB. If Jackson were to win, he would be the only one who hasn’t won a SB. He hasn’t even GOT to a SB.
15th ranked quarterback in the NFL for total passing yards this year. 19th for average pass yards per game. 8th for pass completion. Him winning the MVP will be criminal.
The only ravens games I watched this season were the Texans and the chiefs games. He was very unimpressive and should have been intercepted a Few more times. Lots of very loose passes.
He also threw one against the chiefs that got intercepted almost and went high and he recovered it and got a ~15 yard completion to himself.
Texans couldn’t stop him running and got pumped. Chiefs did and ravens had no feasible plan B.
There is a reason Dusty is a GOAT like Brady and Djokovic etc. They just deliver when it matters most whereas other great players in the regular season (eg dangerfield) and clearly Jackson, don’t or if they do it is when the whole team is smashing the opposition and their contribution is just part of the pile on and the pressure to deliver to get a result isn’t there.
This is it in a nutshell. You can make a case for the play very easily both ways.
In hindsight yep Detroit probably should have taken the points. As MD has said it makes it a 3 score game. Tough to come back from but nowhere near impossible for a team with a high octane offense like the 49ers. But points in the bank counts for something for sure.
So why did they go for it?
Several reasons I would think. At that stage of the game they were dominating the Niners and wanted to keep their foot on the throat of the opposition. Keep the drive going, potentially score a TD and it's not a 3 score game, it's a 3 TD game. There's a big difference between the 2 scenarios.
Secondly the Lions have been extremely successful on 4th down and short conversions this year. Their record of completing plays of 4th down and 3 or shorter was 20 from 24. That's extraordinary. So their confidence in going for it would have been sky high.
And if you fail, as they ultimately did, it's not as if you are giving the ball back to the Niners in damaging field position. The defense had done well to that stage to limit them to 10 points, so you'd back them in to continue playing well on that side of the football.
Thirdly you have to consider what message you are sending to the offense. Since Campbell took over 3 years ago he has backed them in to go out and make these kind of plays. To all of a sudden alter the game style would be sending mixed messaging to the playing group. Interesting that after the game Goff said he had no problem with the call and wanted to stay on the field and go for it.
As for the call itself it was fine. The catch for the completion really should have been taken. You can't blame Campbell for that, it's a simple case of player error.
I sound like a Detroit apologist, and I probably am. I saw what they were trying to do from early last season and have enjoyed watching them play and go from a crap team to a very good team that's entertaining to watch and takes the game on.
But, I do wonder if I would have the same mindset if I was a die hard Lions fan? Possibly not. All I'm saying is I'm glad they went for it, and understand why, despite all that transpired afterwards.
Selective stats in a way Mops.
They are 65 of 123 on 4th downs in his 3 seasons there.
I would be interested to know how many of the 4th down attempts are when playing from behind and almost being forced to go for it?
Goff said
"He believes in us I don’t know what the numbers are but we had a lot of big-time conversions this year that changed games and I don’t know what we were today. I know we had the two we didn’t convert (and were 1-for-3 overall). It can change a game if you convert them and we didn’t. And that’s part of the reason why we lost.".
It can change the game if you convert them? He says that becuase he is talking about swinging momentum when you are behind. In this case they were 2 scores up. And would have gone 3. There is no guranatee they score a TD if they did convert, they were still 30 Yds out.
Crazy talk by a coach defnding poor decision making and a QB who hasn't thought about what he is saying.
Good decisions in pressure situations separate the champs, be they players or coaches. These blokes are chumps.
They are 65 of 123 on 4th downs in his 3 seasons there.
I would be interested to know how many of the 4th down attempts are when playing from behind and almost being forced to go for it?
Goff said
"He believes in us I don’t know what the numbers are but we had a lot of big-time conversions this year that changed games and I don’t know what we were today. I know we had the two we didn’t convert (and were 1-for-3 overall). It can change a game if you convert them and we didn’t. And that’s part of the reason why we lost.".
It can change the game if you convert them? He says that becuase he is talking about swinging momentum when you are behind. In this case they were 2 scores up. And would have gone 3. There is no guranatee they score a TD if they did convert, they were still 30 Yds out.
Crazy talk by a coach defnding poor decision making and a QB who hasn't thought about what he is saying.
Good decisions in pressure situations separate the champs, be they players or coaches. These blokes are chumps.
Here is what Dan said when first asked the question - what a bunch of goobledeegook.
"It’s easy hindsight and I get it," Campbell said. "I get that. But I don’t regret those decisions and that’s hard. That’s hard, because they didn’t — we didn’t come through, it wasn’t able to work out, but I don’t. I don’t. And I understand the scrutiny I'll get, that’s part of the gig. But we just — it just didn’t work out."
"It’s easy hindsight and I get it," Campbell said. "I get that. But I don’t regret those decisions and that’s hard. That’s hard, because they didn’t — we didn’t come through, it wasn’t able to work out, but I don’t. I don’t. And I understand the scrutiny I'll get, that’s part of the gig. But we just — it just didn’t work out."
Fair enough MD you're entitled to your opinion and that's cool.
Those stats you quote sounds like all 4th down conversions to me. Not the 4th and short situations I was referring to. Do you think they would have gone for it on 4th and 6? Nope neither do I.
And I don't see much point comparing the 2021 and 2022 versions of the Lions to this year's. Completely different teams.
As for the situations as to when they went for it I couldn't tell you the exact stats of where and when. Of course there would have been times when they were behind and had no choice. But the times that I do remember in particular were on the one drive where they went for it on 4th and 6, then soon after on 4th and 7. Both were completed using running plays early in the game when the score was still 0-0.
Both exciting, unexpected plays that you wouldn't see many teams, if any at all, try and pull off.
And that's why I like watching them play, it's entertaining.
I'm nowhere near invested enough in them to really get too upset whether they win or not. I just like the theatre they bring.
As for Goff's quote he is dead right. Not converting the 4th down was costly, but nowhere near as costly as the bungled interception at the SF5, the dropped ball on the running play shortly after, or the numerous dropped passes as well. They contributed far more to the result IMO.
Clearly game situation matters. A championship game with it all on the line when leading by 2 scores is different to an in-season game in the first qtr at nil-nil. And I am not personally judging using hindsight, I said it was a shocking call at the time.
I think people arguing analytics ignore that each game and situation is unique. You cannot replicate the players/conditions etc etc. Perhaps he may have missed the FG and the momentum shift would have occured anyway?
As for Goffs quote, all the disasters happened after the 4th down turnover. Coincidence? Momentum is a crazy thing in sport.
I'm not a Lions fan and I'm all for positive football but I just think Dan didn't really own the decision. Perhaps he didn't think he had to? IMO that game was lost because of that first call. He came out praising the 49ers like they turned it around.
Will be super surprised if the Chiefs don't do a number on the 49ers.
Ultimately, Dan is on millions coaching an NFL team and I'm yelling from the cheap seats.....
Cricket
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