Jed Anderson

[Brooklyn Tiger]

I can't see Aish playing for north. I don't feel like they are a big enough club for him... base that on zero fact. just doesn't sound like that type of kid..

 

[tigerlove]

I disagree, if the boffins reckon its a thin draft, the prudent move is to draft thin, no losing out.

How often have the experts been wrong? I'd need help on that, but my hunch is they'd be on the money mostly. Remember we're talking about overall quality, which affectd he chances of grabbing a good'n late. I don't see it as controversial myself.

The best teams grab good players at lower picks consistently? Yes, but debateable, they have bursts, but this very topic was debated at length somewhere, on a Francis thread I think, it was interesting. But its not that simple.

Find good players at lower picks regardless of draft quality? No, not true. Of course there will be the odd nugget in any year, but its the amount and quality that varies. Even then I'm sure you could find a gun late in every draft, but the point is in a poor draft there will be one or two, in a good draft there'll be a dozen. Ergo, its all about the odds.

So a pick at say 35 in a strong draft will have a 40 to 1 chance of finding a player who will play 100 games, whereas in a weak draft the same pick might have a 60 or 70 to 1 chance. (I'm guessing on those probabilities, but I've read about drafts that were busts and ones that were 'superdrafts'), Hence, picks are generally worth less in a weak draft.

None of this is controversial IMO.

And therein lies my exact point. You don't really know how strong or weak a draft is until its proven well AFTER it has taken place. Granted it can be a little bit clearer as to the potential of a super draft but to say you can predict accurately whether a draft will produce more or less 100 gamers is ridiculous. The successful teams always seem to prudently get good players at whatever draft pick they have regardless of how strong or weak a draft it is or whether their pick is 40 or 50. They are successful because they pick well for needs and they develop players well, not because they were ableto offlload picks in a weak draft. And that's why teams don't fall over themselves trying to offload picks when some supposed 'experts' predict its going to be the weakest draft in 10 years.

 

[BillyJean17]

Pick 15 is unbelievably high for a player that averaged 4 kicks a game in his 2015 senior appearances , may be another John Hay type doozy :

 

[Bill James]

Pick 15 is unbelievably high for a player that averaged 4 kicks a game in his 2015 senior appearances , may be another John Hay type doozy :

Can we offer them Morris?

 

[zippadeee]

Pick 15 is unbelievably high for a player that averaged 4 kicks a game in his 2015 senior appearances , may be another John Hay type doozy :

Was thinking the same. When did he become a star because I missed it. Hawthorn have ripped North off AGAIN...

 

[No 4]

Pick 15 is unbelievably high for a player that averaged 4 kicks a game in his 2015 senior appearances , may be another John Hay type doozy :

this is North's downfall. traded tops picks for short term success. They need the short term success to be viable as a club with low membership base.
in two years time, when the aged stars go by the waste side and their potential picks don't materialise, they will be on thin ice.

North's approach is not recommended, the coach and president don't have time to see their young players developed. North! are they like Brisbane? in two years, one star has gone (levi) and there's two wanting to go?

 

[TigerMasochist]

Was thinking the same. When did he become a star because I missed it. Hawthorn have ripped North off AGAIN...

Dunno, draft is deemed to be fairly flat this year. Just a handful of kids believed to be elite n then a long flat line of average to mediocre blandness. Norf cough up fifteen for a pacy kid with some excitement n x factor n get back 38 n 40. Might be a case this year that there's bugger all difference in the talent of the kids between say picks ten n forty so Norf get a kid who's had a couple of years development n two for one value in the front half of the draft. Meanwhile the Hawks get to package up two late " first rounders " of dubious value for something they want from elsewhere. Could be a modest win win win for everyone concerned.

 

[bullus_hit]

this is North's downfall. traded tops picks for short term success. They need the short term success to be viable as a club with low membership base.
in two years time, when the aged stars go by the waste side and their potential picks don't materialise, they will be on thin ice.

North's approach is not recommended, the coach and president don't have time to see their young players developed. North! are they like Brisbane? in two years, one star has gone (levi) and there's two wanting to go?

This post is completely at odds with the North strategy, this would be the first time they have traded a first round pick since Scott has been coach. Their star recruits such as Dal Santo, Waite & Higgins were all free agents, they cost nothing. Cotchin's unlucky talisman, Ben Jacobs cost pick 37, not bad for a guy who was pick 16 in 2010.

Anderson had a poor 2015 but was recovering from glandular fever, he was looking to be in ripping form in the NAB Cup with 26 touches aginst Collingwood & showed that he has the tools to make it.

People can talk about pick 15 being too high but there's every chance Anderson will go onto play 100+ games and be a damaging wingman in the tradition of Isaac Smith. He has age on his side and he's come from one of the most professional environments we've seen in recent times. Smart recruiting and list management if you ask me.

 

[BillyJean17]

cant believe for the life of me he d be worth a R1 pick, crikey, what would ben griff be worth :

 

[lamb22]

cant believe for the life of me he d be worth a R1 pick, crikey, what would ben griff be worth :

Pick 120.

 

[bullus_hit]

cant believe for the life of me he d be worth a R1 pick, crikey, what would ben griff be worth :

North paid slightly overs, probably worth a pick between 18-22, that being said he stands a much higher chance of succeeding than a draftee who statistically would be a 50% proposition to play 100 games. I would give Anderson an 80% chance to reach that milestone, I think he will do exceedingly well at North.

 

[TigerMasochist]

Pick 120.

Believe we've already got that pick Lambshanks, might as well keep the Griff for another year rather than letting him go too cheaply with a later pick.

 

[tigerlove]

North paid slightly overs, probably worth a pick between 18-22, that being said he stands a much higher chance of succeeding than a draftee who statistically would be a 50% proposition to play 100 games. I would give Anderson an 80% chance to reach that milestone, I think he will do exceedingly well at North.

North well and truly paid overs. Hawks are the master traders.

 

[Tigertough1974]

North paid slightly overs, probably worth a pick between 18-22, that being said he stands a much higher chance of succeeding than a draftee who statistically would be a 50% proposition to play 100 games. I would give Anderson an 80% chance to reach that milestone, I think he will do exceedingly well at North.

I tend to agree with you Bullus, i still think the draft system has a lot of holes for clubs to best assess value, getting better from the past years but based on your summation i definitely agree... Only time will tell i guess but id back Jed in to play 100-150+ games unless injury cuts him down..

 

[bullus_hit]

North well and truly paid overs. Hawks are the master traders.

With 5 potential academy kids likely to be selected before Hawthorn's pick the Anderson selection could slide out to pick 19, still maybe a touch high but not overly so. He is also a fairly unique commodity when stacked up against this year's batch.

 

[tigerlove]

With 5 potential academy kids likely to be selected before Hawthorn's pick the Anderson selection could slide out to pick 19, still maybe a touch high but not overly so. He is also a fairly unique commodity when stacked up against this year's batch.

Disagree. 22 next year. Had his injuries. Time will tell. Certainly the right move for himself though. No way he's getting a game ahead of other smaller Hawthorn forwards in the near future. Pick 15 way too high.

 

[bullus_hit]

Disagree. 22 next year. Had his injuries. Time will tell. Certainly the right move for himself though. No way he's getting a game ahead of other smaller Hawthorn forwards in the near future. Pick 15 way too high.

North also pocketed pick 38 so they may even get a steak knives best 22 player. Having assessed the draft I can't see too many line breaking wingmen of Anderson's quality, I think this trade was done to meet a clear need.

 

[mrposhman]

North also pocketed pick 38 so they may even get a steak knives best 22 player. Having assessed the draft I can't see too many line breaking wingmen of Anderson's quality, I think this trade was done to meet a clear need.

I think they got 38 and 40 as part of the deal.

 

[bullus_hit]

I think they got 38 and 40 as part of the deal.

Yes, could be a major win if they nail one of those two picks.

 

[Rosy]

Yes, could be a major win if they nail one of those two picks.

Or if Jed lives up to his potential. He's still relatively young.