I want to ask a few of you guys to consider watching a few games under the assumption that “hitouts to advantage” is an anti-moneyball stat.
I watched the replay and casually took notes of every H2A. I zoned out for 3-4 situations where I might have missed a good example of it working, and I couldn’t rewind at the time as I was watching with others. However, I saw 90% of ruck contests and it is from that selection, along with a few years of sensing ruck contests are random, that I formed this opinion:
Hitouts to advantage almost never advantage the team through a clean passage of play. (However, I am excluding situations where a hitout puts the ball into a chaos situation that favours our team, but it’s not clean... this is more subjective to measure, so I’m strictly talking about clean H2A to clean string of disposals).
When you saw Ivan “beautifully tap the ball down Dusty’s throat” what many don’t remember is how much pressure Dusty was under in these situations, and therefore the overwhelming probability that he failed to ignite a chain of possessions that led to a goal.
This is because a majority of ruck contests are surrounded by so many opposition players. This means it’s very easy for them to pressure the receiver of a H2A. They almost always succeed in pressuring them, yet commentators praise the ruckman’s hitout while the opposition carry the ball away into their forward line on the turnover. It’s crazy how often people don’t acknowledge the frequency by which hitouts to advantage don’t directly lead to a clean advantage.
..
Here’s a breakdown of Soldo’s clean ruck hitouts that led to clean chain of possessions:
(I’ll only make note of relevant contests and anytime I caught myself forgetting to look at what happened)
Q1
17.50 was not. Soldo tried to grab it, ball deflected randomly off his hands, Dusty caught the chaotic fall of the call and cleanly delivered to a teammate, resulting in a F50 entry. This was an unintentional ruck fumble.
8:00 I missed a ruck contest here
3.10 clean H2A but subsequent kick was killed. Kicker was not pressured, so this seems to be the first situation in the game where a H2A gave our player a chance of cleanly delivering the ball.
Nothing else happened this quarter from any ruck contest
Q2
17.50. Clean tap to clean handball to heavily pressured outsider kick to nowhere that was turned over. “Beautiful hitout to advantage” did not cause advantage because opposition could predict our positioning and easily pressure the kicker.
12:00 I didn’t see this bounce
2:00 I didn’t see something here, but suspect something good happened at this one
0:40 I tuned out and didn’t see who won the ruck contest (or if it was a clean intentional tap), but we did come streaming away with the ball.
Was caught napping a bit before halftime, so I might’ve missed something there. Still, there have been many contests so far that have been random.
Q3:
14:00 I think Hawthorn just had their first clean H2A that directly resulted in a goal. See how rare it is?
From 12:00 - 7:00 I was out of the room
5:00 tap to grass, not clean, but Dusty was able to paddle it along the ground to gain possessions, run into space, and deliver the ball successilly. This is probably better than hitting him on the the chest because it’s harder for opposition players to predict where he’s going to run, and they’re looking at the bouncing ball instead of anticipating Dusty’s first few steps with ball down throat.
3:00 tap to grass again, and Lambert ran into the dribbling ball and delivered I50. Opposition couldn’t pressure him due to unpredictability.
Q4:
18.30 Hawthorn ruck hitout to Richmond player into space who kicked to Richmond player 50m closer to goal. Okay, so I’ve now noted an equal number of clean possession chains resulting from both Richmond and Hawthorn clean ruck hitouts. Interesting, eh?
14:00 Hawthorn did it for a second time! I50 without immediate pressure... however, Grimes spoiled it in the goalsquare, so we were structurally in position and ready to prevent their predictable H2A. Professional defenders easily chop off these types of plays because they’re predictable, I think that’s why chaos ball works so well for us.
After 14:00 we scored at least 2 “beautiful hitouts to advantage” that led to us being pinged for holding the ball. Opposition pressure came at the most predictable moment in the game. Commentators praised Soldo, but ignore the futility of the situation.
At this stage, I realised in this game our hitouts to advantage are just as likely to lead to us being pinged for holding the ball than for us to waltz out of a contest with a clean chain of possessions.
2:30 a hitout deflected unintentionally, but a Richmond player roved it and a chain of 5-6 sideways possessions occurred before turnover. This was the equivalent of a kick off the side of the boot hitting a player on the chest, the unpredictability of the tap increased our chances of running the ball out. Unpredictability is always harder to pressure.
0:30. Balta does it! With 30 seconds to go, Balta and Dusty achieve the first undisputed perfectly clean ruck play for our game that I saw where the advantage was sustained beyond the initial highly pressured situation. This late in the game, I suspect the opposition was not as switched on to pressure, therefore my opinion on this would predict a greater number of clean H2A’s late in games. Let’s see if this trend continues.
Come to think of it, a majority of ruck action in this game occurred in the final 5 minutes of every quarter when concentrations usually drops off.
I wasn’t focused on this one stat for 120 minutes, but I was for over 100, and I didn’t factor in situations where a hitout favoured our team indirectly, so I’m not discounting the value of H2A in unpredictable situations. Nevertheless, I am pretty certain these hitouts to advantage did not advantage our team in this match. Some have walked away from this game thinking Dusty had the ball tapped down his throat. However, he was pressured and caught HTB more frequently in these situations than he was able to create a goal despite the opposition’s best efforts to blunt effectiveness after every ruck contest.
So what should we do to get out of congested, predictable ruck contests? Maybe punch the ball forward 30m more often?
I watched the replay and casually took notes of every H2A. I zoned out for 3-4 situations where I might have missed a good example of it working, and I couldn’t rewind at the time as I was watching with others. However, I saw 90% of ruck contests and it is from that selection, along with a few years of sensing ruck contests are random, that I formed this opinion:
Hitouts to advantage almost never advantage the team through a clean passage of play. (However, I am excluding situations where a hitout puts the ball into a chaos situation that favours our team, but it’s not clean... this is more subjective to measure, so I’m strictly talking about clean H2A to clean string of disposals).
When you saw Ivan “beautifully tap the ball down Dusty’s throat” what many don’t remember is how much pressure Dusty was under in these situations, and therefore the overwhelming probability that he failed to ignite a chain of possessions that led to a goal.
This is because a majority of ruck contests are surrounded by so many opposition players. This means it’s very easy for them to pressure the receiver of a H2A. They almost always succeed in pressuring them, yet commentators praise the ruckman’s hitout while the opposition carry the ball away into their forward line on the turnover. It’s crazy how often people don’t acknowledge the frequency by which hitouts to advantage don’t directly lead to a clean advantage.
..
Here’s a breakdown of Soldo’s clean ruck hitouts that led to clean chain of possessions:
(I’ll only make note of relevant contests and anytime I caught myself forgetting to look at what happened)
Q1
17.50 was not. Soldo tried to grab it, ball deflected randomly off his hands, Dusty caught the chaotic fall of the call and cleanly delivered to a teammate, resulting in a F50 entry. This was an unintentional ruck fumble.
8:00 I missed a ruck contest here
3.10 clean H2A but subsequent kick was killed. Kicker was not pressured, so this seems to be the first situation in the game where a H2A gave our player a chance of cleanly delivering the ball.
Nothing else happened this quarter from any ruck contest
Q2
17.50. Clean tap to clean handball to heavily pressured outsider kick to nowhere that was turned over. “Beautiful hitout to advantage” did not cause advantage because opposition could predict our positioning and easily pressure the kicker.
12:00 I didn’t see this bounce
2:00 I didn’t see something here, but suspect something good happened at this one
0:40 I tuned out and didn’t see who won the ruck contest (or if it was a clean intentional tap), but we did come streaming away with the ball.
Was caught napping a bit before halftime, so I might’ve missed something there. Still, there have been many contests so far that have been random.
Q3:
14:00 I think Hawthorn just had their first clean H2A that directly resulted in a goal. See how rare it is?
From 12:00 - 7:00 I was out of the room
5:00 tap to grass, not clean, but Dusty was able to paddle it along the ground to gain possessions, run into space, and deliver the ball successilly. This is probably better than hitting him on the the chest because it’s harder for opposition players to predict where he’s going to run, and they’re looking at the bouncing ball instead of anticipating Dusty’s first few steps with ball down throat.
3:00 tap to grass again, and Lambert ran into the dribbling ball and delivered I50. Opposition couldn’t pressure him due to unpredictability.
Q4:
18.30 Hawthorn ruck hitout to Richmond player into space who kicked to Richmond player 50m closer to goal. Okay, so I’ve now noted an equal number of clean possession chains resulting from both Richmond and Hawthorn clean ruck hitouts. Interesting, eh?
14:00 Hawthorn did it for a second time! I50 without immediate pressure... however, Grimes spoiled it in the goalsquare, so we were structurally in position and ready to prevent their predictable H2A. Professional defenders easily chop off these types of plays because they’re predictable, I think that’s why chaos ball works so well for us.
After 14:00 we scored at least 2 “beautiful hitouts to advantage” that led to us being pinged for holding the ball. Opposition pressure came at the most predictable moment in the game. Commentators praised Soldo, but ignore the futility of the situation.
At this stage, I realised in this game our hitouts to advantage are just as likely to lead to us being pinged for holding the ball than for us to waltz out of a contest with a clean chain of possessions.
2:30 a hitout deflected unintentionally, but a Richmond player roved it and a chain of 5-6 sideways possessions occurred before turnover. This was the equivalent of a kick off the side of the boot hitting a player on the chest, the unpredictability of the tap increased our chances of running the ball out. Unpredictability is always harder to pressure.
0:30. Balta does it! With 30 seconds to go, Balta and Dusty achieve the first undisputed perfectly clean ruck play for our game that I saw where the advantage was sustained beyond the initial highly pressured situation. This late in the game, I suspect the opposition was not as switched on to pressure, therefore my opinion on this would predict a greater number of clean H2A’s late in games. Let’s see if this trend continues.
Come to think of it, a majority of ruck action in this game occurred in the final 5 minutes of every quarter when concentrations usually drops off.
I wasn’t focused on this one stat for 120 minutes, but I was for over 100, and I didn’t factor in situations where a hitout favoured our team indirectly, so I’m not discounting the value of H2A in unpredictable situations. Nevertheless, I am pretty certain these hitouts to advantage did not advantage our team in this match. Some have walked away from this game thinking Dusty had the ball tapped down his throat. However, he was pressured and caught HTB more frequently in these situations than he was able to create a goal despite the opposition’s best efforts to blunt effectiveness after every ruck contest.
So what should we do to get out of congested, predictable ruck contests? Maybe punch the ball forward 30m more often?
